The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Thursday, February 27, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AI’s Takes of the Day

Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting 1/30: 28-24. Here are today’s results: 

– NEW ORLEANS (+8.5 at PHX)
Multiple extreme stats systems fade PHX and New Orleans is underpriced in all three ratings projections 

– MIN-LAL UNDER 229
Extreme stats systems favor Under in MIN’s game and recent head-to-head trend favors Under

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Underdogs are 10-3 ATS in the last 13 of the GSW-ORL cross-country series
Trend Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (+5 vs. GSW)

* Teams that win outright versus divisional rivals as double-digit underdogs have trended sharply Under the total in the next contest, going 59-38-1 (60.8%) in their last 98 tries.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIN-LAL (o/u at 229)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:20 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results:

–  Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
–  Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
–  Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
–  Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GOLDEN STATE, DENVER 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GOLDEN STATE, DENVER 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on the handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1002-470 over the last 2+ seasons but for -214.88 units and an ROI of -14.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 746-483 but for +3.48 units and an ROI of +0.2%. This 14.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – DALLAS ML, PHOENIX ML, LA LAKERS ML 

These last four systems involve totals. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): DEN-MIL, CHA-DAL 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: There has been some decent success for the number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 282-242 (53.8%) for +15.8 units and an ROI of +3% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): CHA-DAL, NOP-PHX 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of ’23 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY OVER): GSW-ORL

DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising the total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 136-102 (57.1%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CHA-DAL

The following are 40 of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

* GOLDEN STATE is on an extended slide of 43-58 SU and 41-60 ATS when playing on the road on OneDayRest
2/27: FADE GOLDEN STATE at Orlando
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-5 at ORL) 

* MILWAUKEE is on a 47-45 SU and 34-56-2 ATS skid in the last 92 when playing on standard One Day Rest
2/27: FADE MILWAUKEE vs. Denver
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+4 vs. DEN)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five different betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 232-44 SU but just 128-142-6 ATS (47.4%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE ATS): DALLAS (*if they become double-digit favorites versus CHA, -9 currently)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams, off of a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored, have gone 147-88 SU but 106-125-4 ATS (45.9%) in the follow-up contest over the last 6 seasons. Included among this is an 89-111 ATS mark when not playing the next day.
System Match (FADE): PHOENIX (-8.5 vs. NOP)

Divisional upsets can lead to under
Teams that win outright versus divisional rivals as double-digit underdogs have trended sharply Under the total in the next contest, going 59-38-1 (60.8%) in their last 98 tries.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIN-LAL (o/u at 229) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 294-250 (54%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIN-LAL (o/u at 229) 

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 272-287 SU and 248-303-8 ATS (45%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): PHOENIX (-8.5 vs. NOP)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going 304-282 SU but 263-304-17 ATS (46.4%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): PHOENIX (-8.5 vs. NOP) 

Unusual defensive performances
Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 184-70 SU and 136-115-3 ATS (54.2%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (-8.5 vs NOP) 

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY 

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1(tie). MILWAUKEE +4 (+2.1)
NEW ORLEANS +8.5 (+2.1)
3(tie). ORLANDO +5 (+1.7)
MINNESOTA +6.5 (+1.7)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ORLANDO +5 (+4.7)
2. NEW ORLEANS +8.5 (+1.9)
3. MILWAUKEE +4 (+0.6) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: LA LAKERS -6.5 (+0.1)

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DEN-MIL OVER 240.5 (+1.3)
2. MIN-LAL OVER 229 (+0.5)
3. NOP-PHX OVER 236.5 (+0.3) 

Today’s Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GSW-ORL UNDER 212 (-1.8)
2. CHA-DAL UNDER 225.5 (-1.0) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW ORLEANS +8.5 (+2.3)
2. CHARLOTTE +9 (+2.0)
3. ORLANDO +5 (+1.6) 

Today’s Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIN-LAL OVER 229 (+2.0)
2. DEN-MIL OVER 240.5 (+1.8) 

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NOP-PHX UNDER 236.5 (-1.8)
2. GSW-ORL UNDER 212 (-1.0)
3. CHA-DAL UNDER 225.5 (-0.2)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(519) GOLDEN STATE at (520) ORLANDO
* Underdogs are 10-3 ATS in the last 13 of the GSW-ORL cross-country series
Trend Match: PLAY ORLANDO ATS 

(523) CHARLOTTE at (524) DALLAS
* CHARLOTTE is 7-2 ATS in the last nine visits to Dallas
Trend Match: PLAY CHARLOTTE ATS 

(525) NEW ORLEANS at (526) PHOENIX
* Over the total is 10-3 in the last 13 of the NOP-PHX series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(527) MINNESOTA at (528) LA LAKERS
* Under the total is 9-4 in matchups between MIN and LAL in Los Angeles since 2018
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR