The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Thursday, February 6, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AI’s Takes of the Day

Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. Here are today’s results: 

– DENVER (-7 vs ORL)
Many scheduling situations favor Denver here 

– HOU-MIN OVER 214
Houston trending Over in scheduling situation + head-to-head series trends Over lately

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Teams having lost their last four games or more have been fantastic in the rare role of playing as road favorites, going 35-12 SU and 32-13-2 ATS (71.1%) in their last 47 tries.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-1.5 at MIN)

* Over the total is 10-2 in the last 12 games between Pacers and Clippers in Los Angeles
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total in IND-LAC (o/u at 229.5) 

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results: 

–  Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
– Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
–  Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
–  Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2%

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 129-109 ATS (54.2%) over the last 2+ seasons. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): PORTLAND 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): PORTLAND 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 70-104 ATS (40.2%), well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Match (FADE): DENVER

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, DENVER, LA CLIPPERS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON, PORTLAND 

These last three systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): ORL-DEN, SAC-POR, IND-LAC 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of ’23 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-MIN 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising the total off of its opening number. These UNDER majorities have gone 136-102 (57.1%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): SAC-POR, IND-LAC

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long! 

* Teams playing on 3rdStraightHome game were 79-41 SU and 70-45-5 ATS (60.9%) hosting teams playing a A2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
2/6: DENVER vs. Orlando
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-7 vs ORL) 

* Road teams playing an A2A b2b game are 32-40 SU BUT 41-30-3 ATS (57.7%) facing hosts playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game over the last four seasons.
2/6: ORLANDO at Denver
System Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (+7 at DEN) 

* Home teams playing a H2H b2b game were 41-45 SU and 47-37-2 ATS (56%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last two seasons.
2/6: DENVER vs. Orlando
2/6: MINNESOTA vs. Houston
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (+1.5 vs. HOU), DENVER (-7 vs. ORL)

* Hosts playing in a H2H b2b game scenario were 22-22 SU and 26-18 ATS (59.1%) over the last two seasons hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game.
2/6: DENVER vs. Orlando
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-7 vs. ORL) 

* Home teams playing in a 3rd Home in 4 Days game scenario were 34-25 SU and 34-22-3 ATS (60.7%) since the start of last season hosting teams a 3rd in 4 Days game.
2/6: DENVER vs. Orlando
2/6: MINNESOTA vs. Houston
2/6: PORTLAND vs. Sacramento
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (+1.5 vs. HOU), DENVER (-7 vs. ORL), PORTLAND (-1 vs. SAC) 

* Under the total was 115-93-1 (55.3%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on OneDayRest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
2/6: Under the total in MINNESOTA-HOUSTON
System Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-MIN (o/u at 214.5) 

* Over the total was 92-76 (54.8%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on an A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4th in 6 Days game.
2/6: Over the total in ORLANDO-DENVER
System Match (PLAY OVER): ORL-DEN (o/u at 220) 

* Over the total was 91-65 (58.3%) over the last four seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the opponent was playing a 3rdStraightRoad game.
2/6: Over the total in DENVER-ORLANDO
2/6: Over the total in MINNESOTA-HOUSTON
System Matches (PLAY OVER): HOU-MIN (o/u at 214.5), ORL-DEN (o/u at 220)

* Over the total was 42-32 (56.8%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing a A2A b2b game.
2/6: Over the total in DENVER-ORLANDO
System Match (PLAY OVER): ORL-DEN (o/u at 220) 

* Over the total was 55-49 (52.9%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
2/6: Over the total in PORTLAND-SACRAMENTO
System Match (PLAY OVER): SAC-POR (o/u at 230) 

* Over the total was 18-8 (69.2%) since the start of last season when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the road team was playing a 4th Straight Road game.
2/6: Over the total in DENVER-ORLANDO
System Match (PLAY OVER): ORL-DEN (o/u at 220)

The following are 40 of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

* HOUSTON is 13-31 SU and 16-28 ATS in its’ L44 3rdStraightRoad games
2/6: FADE HOUSTON at Minnesota
Trend Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-1.5 at MIN)

* INDIANA is 16-32 SU and 16-31-1 ATS in its last 48 3rd Straight Road games
2/6: Fade INDIANA at La Clippers
Trend Match (FADE): INDIANA (+5 at LAC)

* ORLANDO is on a 17-20 SU but 23-14 ATS run when playing a 3rd Straight Road game
2/6: ORLANDO at Denver
Trend Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (+7 at DEN) 

* PORTLAND is 31-67 SU and 38-60 ATS since ’20-21 when playing at home on One Day Rest
2/6: Fade PORTLAND vs. Sacramento
Trend Match (FADE): PORTLAND (-1 vs SAC) 

* HOUSTON is on a 36-17 Over the total surge when playing on the road in a 3rd in 4 Days scheduling scenario
2/6: Over the total in HOUSTON-MINNESOTA
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-MIN (o/u at 214.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five different NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 225-41 SU but just 126-135-5 ATS (48.3%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-10 vs DAL)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 96-81 (54.2%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 190-161 (54.1%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 254-196 (56.4%).
System Match (PLAY OVER): DAL-BOS (o/u at 230)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.

135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 227-129 SU but 161-188-7 ATS (46.1%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is 32-33-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-7 vs. ORL) 

Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 279-219 SU but 218-266-14 ATS (45%) over the last 6 seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 38-66 ATS.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA LAKERS (-7.5 vs. GSW), PORTLAND (-1 vs. SAC) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 269-280 SU and 243-299-7 ATS (44.8%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): ORLANDO (+7 at DEN)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going 296-275 SU but 255-299-15 ATS (46%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (+1.5 vs. HOU) 

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine different NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #2:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been fantastic in the rare role of playing as road favorites, going 35-12 SU and 32-13-2 ATS (71.1%) in their last 47 tries.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-1.5 at MIN) 

NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 105-19 SU but 54-68-3 ATS (44.3%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-10 vs. DAL) 

NBA Streak Betting System #7:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have also been a great wager when they are a strong defensive team, as those allowing less than 110 PPG are 49-46 SU and 58-33-4 ATS (63.7%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-1.5 at MIN)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MINNESOTA +1.5 (+4.2)
2. GOLDEN STATE +7.5 (+2.5)
3. INDIANA +5 (+1.6) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: BOSTON -10 (+1.5) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GOLDEN STATE +7.5 (+4.3)
2. MINNESOTA +1.5 (+1.0)
3. SACRAMENTO +1 (+0.8) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA CLIPPERS -5 (+0.7)
2. BOSTON -10 (+0.4)
3. DENVER -7 (+0.2) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GSW-LAL OVER 222.5 (+1.1)
2. SAC-POR OVER 230 (+1.0)
3. DAL-BOS OVER 230 (+0.4)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ORL-DEN UNDER 220 (-1.8)
2. HOU-MIN UNDER 214 (-1.6)
3. IND-LAC UNDER 229.5 (-0.9) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SACRAMENTO +1 (+5.1)
2. MINNESOTA +1.5 (+4.6)
3. INDIANA +5 (+2.8) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: BOSTON -10 (+2.0) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAC-POR OVER 230 (+1.8)
2. IND-LAC OVER 229.5 (+0.5)
3. DAL-BOS OVER 230 (+0.2) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GSW-LAL UNDER 222.5 (-4.1)
2. HOU-MIN UNDER 214 (-1.4)
3. ORL-DEN UNDER 220 (-0.8)

Here are the top head-to-head series betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(557) DALLAS at (558) BOSTON
* Under the total is 11-3-1 in the last 15 of the DAL-BOS non-conference series
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total 

(559) HOUSTON at (560) MINNESOTA
* Over the total is 5-1 in the last six of the HOU-MIN series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(561) ORLANDO at (562) DENVER
* Over the total is 7-1 in the last eight games when Orlando visits Denver
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total
* ORLANDO is 7-1 ATS in the last eight games versus DEN, but did lose last time
Trend Match: PLAY ORLANDO ATS 

(565) GOLDEN STATE at (566) LA LAKERS
* Over the total is 7-1 in the last eight of the GSW-LAL divisional rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(567) INDIANA at (568) LA CLIPPERS
* Over the total is 10-2 in the last 12 games between IND and LAC in Los Angeles
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total

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