Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Thursday, January 2, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Over the total has covered in six straight meetings between Indiana and Miami
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total in IND-MIA (o/u at 224)
* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 57-42 SU but 41-58 ATS (41.4%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Road in 4 Days game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-3 vs PHI)
* MILWAUKEE is on a 36-38 SU and 25-48-1 ATS skid in the last 74 when playing on standard One Day Rest
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-14 vs BKN)
*NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 254-270 SU and 232-286-6 ATS (44.8%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-4.5 at MIN)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 94-75 ATS (55.6%). This is fairly a profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January ‘23, this “super” majority group has gone just 60-86 ATS (41.1%), well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY, LA LAKERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, GOLDEN STATE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY, MILWAUKEE, LA LAKERS
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 782-357 over the last 1-1/2 seasons but for -131.98 units and an ROI of -11.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 571-358 but for +23.75 units and an ROI of +2.6%. This 14.2% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – OKLAHOMA CITY ML, MILWAUKEE ML, GOLDEN STATE ML, LA LAKERS ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for a money line wager over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has done well, going 86-138 but for +19.67 units and an ROI of +8.8%. It takes patience to wager something that wins only 38% of the time, but the reward is there.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA ML
These last two systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): IND-MIA, PHI-GSW, POR-LAL
DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – BOS-MIN, LAC-OKC
UNDER – PHI-GSW
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 140-95 SU but 102-130-3 ATS (44%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last four seasons.
1/2: FADE GOLDEN STATE vs. Philadelphia
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-3 vs. PHI)
* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 57-42 SU but 41-58 ATS (41.4%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Road in 4 Days game over the last four seasons.
1/2: FADE GOLDEN STATE vs. Philadelphia
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-3 vs. PHI)
* Home teams playing on 2 Days Rest are 76-42 SU but 53-64-1 ATS (45.3%) hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game over the last four seasons.
1/2: FADE GOLDEN STATE vs. Philadelphia
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-3 vs. PHI)
* Teams playing on 3rd Straight Home game were 71-37 SU and 63-41-4 ATS (60.6%) hosting teams playing a A2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
1/2: GOLDEN STATE vs. Philadelphia
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (-3 vs. PHI)
* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 40-22 SU BUT 26-35-1 ATS (42.6%) hosting teams playing on a 4th Road in 6 Days game over the last four seasons.
1/2: FADE GOLDEN STATE vs. Philadelphia
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-3 vs. PHI)
* Over the total was 33-22 (60%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on 2 Days Rest and the road team was playing a 3rd Road in 4 Days game.
1/2: Over the total in GOLDEN STATE-PHILADELPHIA
System Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-GSW (o/u at 216.5)
* LA CLIPPERS are on a 17-25 SU and 11-31 ATS skid in its last 42 tries playing a 3rd in 4 days game
1/2: Fade LA CLIPPERS at Oklahoma City
System Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS (+9.5 at OKC)
* MIAMI is on an 8-7 SU but 5-10 ATS skid playing at home in a 4th in 6 Days game
1/2: Fade MIAMI vs. Indiana
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (-1 vs. IND)
* MILWAUKEE is on a 36-38 SU and 25-48-1 ATS skid in the last 74 when playing on standard One Day Rest
1/2: Fade MILWAUKEE vs. Brooklyn
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-14 vs. BKN)
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 22-8 OVER the total in its last 30 3rd Straight Home games
1/2: Over the total in OKLAHOMA CITY-LA CLIPPERS
System Match (PLAY OVER): LAC-OKC (o/u at 217.5)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trends for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 92-79 (53.8%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 171-145 (54.1%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 242-184 (56.8%).
System Match (PLAY OVER): BKN-MIL (o/u at 221)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These NBA betting trends search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 254-270 SU and 232-286-6 ATS (44.8%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-4.5 at MIN)
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 283-258 SU and 244-284-11 ATS (46.2%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-4.5 at MIN)
NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 144-163 SU and 140-160-7 ATS (46.7%) in that next contest over the last six seasons.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-4.5 at MIN)
Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 133-96 SU and 129-95-5 ATS (57.6%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-4.5 at MIN)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trends for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 101-17 SU but 52-64-3 ATS (44.8%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (*if they become double-digit favorites vs. LAC, -9.5 currently*)
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning OR losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 209-263-3 ATS (44.3%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 27-119 SU and 60-81-5 ATS (42.6%).
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 vs. LAC)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BROOKLYN +14 (+2.4)
2(tie). MINNESOTA +4.5 (+0.6)
PORTLAND +9 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1(tie). MIAMI -1 (+1.8)
GOLDEN STATE -3 (+1.8)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BROOKLYN +14 (+2.7)
2. PORTLAND +9 (+1.0)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GOLDEN STATE -3 (+3.2)
2. MIAMI -1 (+2.6)
3. BOSTON -4.5 (+1.8)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHI-GSW OVER 216 (+2.7)
2. BOS-MIN OVER 219 (+0.5)
3. POR-LAL OVER 224 (+0.1)
Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BKN-MIL UNDER 221 (-2.0)
2. LAC-OKC UNDER 217.5 (-0.8)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PORTLAND +9 (+1.6)
2. LA CLIPPERS +9.5 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GOLDEN STATE -3 (+2.0)
2. MIAMI -1 (+1.5)
3. BOSTON -4.5 (+1.2)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHI-GSW OVER 216 (+3.5)
2. BOS-MIN OVER 219 (+2.7)
3. IND-MIA OVER 224 (+1.4)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BKN-MIL UNDER 221 (-6.2)
2. LAC-OKC UNDER 217.5 (-1.9)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(529) BOSTON at (530) MINNESOTA
* Underdogs are 6-2 ATS in the last eight of the BOS-MIN nonconference series
Trend Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS
(531) INDIANA at (532) MIAMI
* Over the total has covered in six straight meetings between IND and MIA
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total
(533) LA CLIPPERS at (534) OKLAHOMA CITY
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 6-1 ATS in the last seven games hosting LAC, but did lose ATS last time
Trend Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY ATS
(535) BROOKLYN at (536) MILWAUKEE
* BROOKLYN is 6-1 ATS in the last seven matchups with Milwaukee
Trend Match: PLAY BROOKLYN ATS
(537) PHILADELPHIA at (538) GOLDEN STATE
* Under the total is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 of the PHI-GSW series at Golden State
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(539) PORTLAND at (540) LA LAKERS
* LA LAKERS are 6-2 ATS in the last eight games when hosting Portland
Trend Match: PLAY LA LAKERS ATS
