The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Thursday, January 23, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* LA CLIPPERS are 14-2 ATS in the last 16 games versus Washington
Trend Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (-14.5 vs. WSH) 

* Teams having lost their last four games or more have also been a great wager when they are a strong defensive team, as those allowing less than 110 PPG are 47-45 SU and 56-32-4 ATS (63.6%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (-8 vs. POR) 

* NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well in the next contest as well, going 140-97 SU and 133-97-7 ATS (57.8%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (+5 vs. BOS) 

* ATLANTA is 45-23 Over the total since 2022 when playing a 4th in 6 Days game
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-ATL (o/u at 233.5)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, CHICAGO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PORTLAND, TORONTO, CHICAGO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning the number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 60-86 ATS (41.1%), well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, BOSTON, CHICAGO, LA CLIPPERS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE, OKLAHOMA CITY, DENVER 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for a money line wager over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has done well, going 86-138 but for +19.67 units and an ROI of +8.8%. It takes patience to wager something that wins only 38% of the time, but the reward is there.
System Match (PLAY): PORTLAND ML 

These last four systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIA-MIL, TOR-ATL, SAC-DEN, BOS-LAL, CHI-GSW, WSH-LAC 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for the number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – TOR-ATL
UNDER – CHI-GSW, WSH-LAC

DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – POR-ORL
UNDER – BOS-LAL 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #16: Majority Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising the total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 106-71 (59.9%) since January ’23 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIA-MIL, SAC-DEN

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long! 

* Hosts playing in an A2H b2b game scenario are 22-35 SU and 20-36-1 ATS (35.7%) since the start of last season hosting teams playing on One Day Rest.
1/23: FADE GOLDEN STATE vs. Chicago
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-1.5 vs CHI) 

* Over the total was 52-46 (53.1%) over last two seasons when the home team was on OneDayRest and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
1/23: Over the total in DENVER-SACRAMENTO
System Match (PLAY OVER): SAC-DEN (o/u at 241.5)

* Over the total is 36-21 (63.2%) since the start of last season when the home team was on A2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
1/23: Over the total in GOLDEN STATE-CHICAGO
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): CHI-GSW (o/u at 228.5) 

* DALLAS is 11-6 SU and 13-4 ATS since start of last season when playing on the road in its 3rd Game in 4 Days
1/23: DALLAS at Oklahoma City
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+13.5 at OKC) 

* ATLANTA is 45-23 Over the total since 2022 when playing a 4th in 6 Days game
1/23: Over the total in ATLANTA-TORONTO
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-ATL (o/u at 233.5)

* OKLAHOMA CITY is 22-11 Over the total in its last 33 3rd Straight Home games
1/23: Over the total in OKLAHOMA CITY-DALLAS
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DAL-OKC (o/u at 221.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 213-38 SU but just 119-127-5 ATS (48.4%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS (-14 vs. WSH)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 95-80 (54.3%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 183-153 (54.5%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 250-192 (56.6%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): DAL-OKC (o/u at 221.5), WSH-LAC (o/u at 224)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

Fade teams off of overtime games
Teams that played in an overtime game the prior day are on a 56-86 SU and 59-78-5 ATS (43.1%) slide, including 30-47-3 ATS in the last 80 games and 19-34 ATS when a pick ’em or favorite.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-5 at LAL), LA CLIPPERS (-14 vs. WSH) 

135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 219-126 SU, but 154-184-7 ATS (45.6%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is 31-33-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-8.5 vs. SAC) 

Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 270-215 SU but 209-263-13 ATS (44.3%) over the last six seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 37-65 ATS.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-8.5 vs. SAC) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 262-275 SU and 238-292-7 ATS (44.9%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN ANTONIO (+3.5 vs. IND), TORONTO (+4.5 at ATL), DENVER (-8.5 vs. SAC) 

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going 291-263 SU but 249-290-13 ATS (46.2%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-1.5 vs. CHI)

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well in the next contest as well, going 140-97 SU and 133-97-7 ATS (57.8%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (+5 vs. BOS)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NFL betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #7:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have also been a great wager when they are a strong defensive team, as those allowing less than 110 PPG are 47-45 SU and 56-32-4 ATS (63.6%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (-8 vs. POR) 

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning OR losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 220-271-3 ATS (44.8%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of 7-games or more have been terrible in road games, going 27-124 SU and 63-83-5 ATS (43.2%).
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+14 at LAC)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SACRAMENTO +8.5 (+1.7)
2. WASHINGTON +14.5 (+1.4)
3. LA LAKERS +5 (+1.3)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GOLDEN STATE -1.5 (+3.2)
2. ATLANTA -4.5 (+1.6)
3. ORLANDO -8 (+1.0) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAN ANTONIO +3.5 (+4.3)
2. LA LAKERS +5 (+2.5)
3. PORTLAND +8 (+2.1) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GOLDEN STATE -1.5 (+3.3)
2. LA CLIPPERS -14.5 (+0.6)
3. DENVER -8.5 (+0.1) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TOR-ATL OVER 233.5 (+0.9)
2. BOS-LAL OVER 218.5 (+0.7)
3. WSH-LAC OVER 225.5 (+0.6) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIA-MIL UNDER 226.5 (-2.4)
2. CHI-GSW UNDER 228.5 (-1.0)
3. DAL-OKC UNDER 222 (-0.8) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SACRAMENTO +8.5 (+2.8)
2. WASHINGTON +14.5 (+2.7)
3. LA LAKERS +5 (+0.3) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GOLDEN STATE -1.5 (+4.2)
2. ATLANTA -4.5 (+2.8)
3. ORLANDO -8 (+1.3) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOS-LAL OVER 218.5 (+5.2)
2. CHI-GSW OVER 228.5 (+2.8)
3. DAL-OKC OVER 222 (+0.8) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIA-MIL UNDER 226.5 (-3.1)
2. POR-ORL UNDER 212 (-2.1)
3. SAS-IND UNDER 229.5 (-1.5) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(559) SAN ANTONIO vs (560) INDIANA
* Underdogs are 4-1 ATS in the last five of the SAS-IND series
Trend Match: PLAY SAN ANTONIO ATS 

(561) PORTLAND at (562) ORLANDO
* Road teams are 13-3 ATS in the last 16 of the POR-ORL series
Trend Match: PLAY PORTLAND ATS 

(563) MIAMI at (564) MILWAUKEE
* Over the total is 9-1 in the last 10 games between MIA and MIL at Milwaukee, but did lose last time
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(565) TORONTO at (566) ATLANTA
* Underdogs/road teams have covered six of the last seven games between Toronto and Atlanta
Trend Match: PLAY TORONTO ATS 

(567) DALLAS at (568) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Underdogs are 5-1 ATS in the last six of the DAL-OKC series
Trend Match: PLAY DALLAS ATS 

(573) BOSTON at (574) LA LAKERS
* Over the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the BOS-LAL historical rivalry in Los Angeles
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(575) CHICAGO at (576) GOLDEN STATE
* GOLDEN STATE is 12-3 ATS in the last 15 games hosting Chicago
Trend Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE ATS 

(577) WASHINGTON at (578) LA CLIPPERS
* LA CLIPPERS are 14-2 ATS in the last 16 games versus Washington
Trend Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS ATS
* Over the total is 10-1 in the last 11 of the WSH-LAC series in Los Angeles
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total

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