The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Thursday, January 9, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Over the total is on an extended 19-3 run in the last 22 of the Portland-Dallas series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): POR-DAL (o/u at 220.5) 

* Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 54-69-1 ATS (43.9%) in the next game, including 23-38 ATS (37.7%) on the road over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE ATS): CLEVELAND (-15.5 vs. TOR) 

* Underdogs are 17-4-1 ATS in the last 22 matchups between Miami and Utah
Trend Match (PLAY): UTAH (+5.5 vs. MIA) 

* Hosts playing in an A2H b2b game scenario are 21-32 SU and 20-32-1 ATS (38.5%) since the start of last season hosting teams playing on One Day Rest.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-2.5 vs. GSW)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to u, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a four-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 94-75 ATS (55.6%). This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO, MINNESOTA, GOLDEN STATE, MIAMI, CHARLOTTE 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 39-24 ATS record (61.9%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 63 games was only 3.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO, MINNESOTA, GOLDEN STATE, PHOENIX, CHARLOTTE 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA, GOLDEN STATE, PHOENIX, MIAMI, CHARLOTTE 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO, DALLAS 

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too: 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on the handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 782-357 over the last 1-1/2 seasons but for -131.98 units and an ROI of -11.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 571-358 but for +23.75 units and an ROI of +2.6%. This 14.2% disparity warrants fading money line majorities on home teams and backing money line majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – CLEVELAND ML, MEMPHIS ML, DALLAS ML, PHOENIX ML, LA LAKERS ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority money line handle was on a team in a divisional matchup last season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on the handle for +30 units, an ROI of 11.5%. This ROI is a notable improvement over all other matchups.
System Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for a money line wager over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has done well, going 86-138 but for +19.67 units and an ROI of +8.8%. It takes patience to wager something that wins only 38% of the time, but the reward is there.
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE ML 

These last four systems involve totals. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): TOR-CLE, GSW-DET, POR-DAL, MIA-UTA 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – MIA-UTA
UNDER – TOR-CLE, ATL-PHX 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of ’23 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY): OVER – MIN-ORL 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #16: Majority Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising the total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 106-71 (59.9%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): TOR-CLE 

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following NBA betting trends are an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long! 

* Teams playing on 3rd Straight Home game were 73-39 SU and 65-43-4 ATS (60.2%) hosting teams playing a A2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
1/9: CLEVELAND vs. Toronto
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-15.5 vs. TOR)

* Hosts playing in an A2H b2b game scenario are 21-32 SU and 20-32-1 ATS (38.5%) since the start of last season hosting teams playing on One Day Rest.
1/9: Fade DETROIT vs. Golden State
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-2.5 vs. GSW)

* Over the total was 40-28 (58.8%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing an A2A b2b game.
1/9: Over the total in CLEVELAND-TORONTO
System Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-CLE (o/u at 235.5) 

* Over the total is 33-20 (62.3%) since the start of last season when the home team was on A2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
1/9: OVER the total in DETROIT-GOLDEN STATE
System Match (PLAY OVER): GSW-DET (o/u at 220) 

* GOLDEN STATE is on an extended slide of 39-55 SU and 36-58 ATS when playing on the road on One Day Rest
1/9: Fade GOLDEN STATE at Detroit
Trend Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (+2.5 at DET)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trends for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 93-79 (54.1%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 172-147 (53.9%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 242-190 (56%).
System Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-CLE (o/u at 235.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 216-125 SU but 154-181-6 ATS (46%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is 31-33-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-1 at MEM)

Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 266-210 SU but 207-257-12 ATS (44.6%) over the last 6 seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 36-63 ATS.
System Match (FADE): DALLAS (-8 vs. POR) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 278-238 (53.9%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-MEM (o/u at 234)

Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing and are on a 171-142 SU and 175-129-9 ATS (57.6%) run.
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (+2.5 at DET)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trends for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 103-17 SU but 53-65-3 ATS (44.9%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE ATS): CLEVELAND (-15.5 vs. TOR) 

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 218-266-3 ATS (45%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 27-121 SU and 62-81-5 ATS (43.4%).
System Match (FADE ATS): CLEVELAND (-15.5 vs. TOR) 

NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 54-69-1 ATS (43.9%) in the next game, including 23-38 ATS (37.7%) on the road over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE ATS): CLEVELAND (-15.5 vs. TOR) 

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHARLOTTE +9 (+1.9)
2(tie). MEMPHIS +1 (+1.1)
PORTLAND +8 (+1.1)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DETROIT -2 (+1.6)
2. CLEVELAND -15.5 (+0.4)
3. MINNESOTA -5.5 (+0.3) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MEMPHIS +1 (+3.6)
2. CHARLOTTE +9 (+2.9)
3. ORLANDO +5.5 (+2.6) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DALLAS -8 (+2.6)
2. MIAMI -5.5 (+2.5)
3. CLEVELAND -15.5 (+1.7) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TOR-CLE OVER 235.5 (+3.5)
2. MIN-ORL OVER 199.5 (+1.4)
3. HOU-MEM OVER 234 (+0.2) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHA-LAL UNDER 221 (-2.0)
2. ATL-PHX UNDER 239 (-1.5)
3. MIA-UTA UNDER 222 (-0.7)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MEMPHIS +1 (+1.7)
2(tie). TORONTO +15.5 (+1.2)
CHARLOTTE +9 (+1.2) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: DETROIT -2 (+0.8)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TOR-CLE OVER 235.5 (+4.8)
2. MIN-ORL OVER 199.5 (+2.2)
3. HOU-MEM OVER 234 (+0.5) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GSW-DET UNDER 220 (-4.5)
2. ATL-PHX UNDER 239 (-3.3)
3. CHA-LAL UNDER 221 (-2.5) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(561) TORONTO at (562) CLEVELAND
* Favorites are 10-2 ATS in the last 12 of the TOR-CLE series
Trend Match: PLAY CLEVELAND ATS 

(563) MINNESOTA at (564) ORLANDO
* Road teams are 6-1 ATS in the last seven of the MIN-ORL non-Conference series
Trend Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS

(567) HOUSTON at (568) MEMPHIS
* Home teams are 5-1 ATS in the last six of the HOU-MEM h2h divisional rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY MEMPHIS ATS 

(569) PORTLAND at (570) DALLAS
* Over the total is on an extended 19-3 run in the last 22 of the POR-DAL series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total

* Favorites are 9-1 ATS in the last 10 of the POR-DAL series, but did lose last time
Trend Match: PLAY DALLAS ATS 

(571) ATLANTA at (572) PHOENIX
* Home teams are 10-1 ATS in the last 11 matchups between ATL and PHX
Trend Match: PLAY PHOENIX ATS 

(573) MIAMI at (574) UTAH
* Underdogs are 17-4-1 ATS in the last 22 matchups between MIA and UTA
Trend Match: PLAY UTAH ATS

* Over the total is 7-1 in the last eight of the MIA-UTA meetings
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(575) CHARLOTTE at (576) LA LAKERS
* LA LAKERS are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 of the series with Charlotte but did lose ATS last time
Trend Match: PLAY LA LAKERS ATS

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR