The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Thursday, March 13, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AI’s Takes of the Day

Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting January 30th: 45-35-1 (56.3%). Here are today’s results: 

– WSH-DET UNDER 236.5
Two DK Betting Splits systems, two Makinen ratings projections, and recent head-to-head trend all favor Under

– ORLANDO (-2.5 at NOP)
DK Betting Split System #2, extreme stats system #6, and recent head-to-head trend all favor ORL

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Road teams are 10-2 ATS in the last 12 of the Kings-Warriors head-to-head divisional series
Trend Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (+7.5 at GSW)

* MILWAUKEE is on a 49-46 SU and 36-56-3 ATS (39.1%) skid in the last 95 when playing on standard One Day Rest
Trend Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-7 vs. LAL)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results: 

–  Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
–  Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
–  Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
–  Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 129-109 ATS (54.2%) over the last 2+ seasons. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Match (PLAY): ORLANDO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, CHICAGO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on the handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1002-470 over the last 2+ seasons but for -214.88 units and an ROI of -14.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 746-483 but for +3.48 units and an ROI of +0.2%. This 14.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – DETROIT ML, MILWAUKEE ML, NEW ORLEANS ML, GOLDEN STATE ML 

These last three systems involve totals. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): WSH-DET, LAL-MIL 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of ’23 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY OVER): ORL-NOP

DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising the total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 136-102 (57.1%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): WSH-DET 

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Hosts playing in an A2H b2b game scenario are 32-38 SU and 26-42-2 ATS (38.2%) since the start of last season hosting teams playing on One Day Rest.
3/13: FADE CHICAGO vs. Brooklyn
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (-2 vs. BKN) 

* Over the total is 43-27 (61.4%) since the start of last season when the home team was on A2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
3/13: Over the total in CHICAGO-BROOKLYN
System Match (PLAY OVER): BKN-CHI (o/u at 230) 

* MILWAUKEE is on a 49-46 SU and 36-56-3 ATS skid in the last 95 when playing on standard One Day Rest
3/13: Fade MILWAUKEE vs. La Lakers
Trend Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-7 vs. LAL)

* WASHINGTON is on 11-14 SU but 15-9 ATS run on the road in the 3rd in 4 Days game scenario
3/13: WASHINGTON at Detroit
Trend Match (PLAY ATS): WASHINGTON (+13.5 at DET) 

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 104-86 (54.7%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 204-166 (55.1%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 264-206 (56.2%).
System Match (PLAY OVER): WSH-DET (o/u at 236.5) 

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

Favorites flush low-scoring totals quickly
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 145-54 SU and 117-80-2 ATS (59.4%) in their last 199 tries.
System Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (-2.5 at NOP)

Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 287-226 SU but 227-271-15 ATS (45.6%) over the last six seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 40-67-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (-2 vs. BKN) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 278-296 SU and 254-312-8 ATS (44.9%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW ORLEANS (+2.5 vs. ORL), GOLDEN STATE (-7.5 vs. SAC)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going 313-289 SU but 270-313-17 ATS (46.3%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-7.5 vs. SAC)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA LAKERS +7 (+1.5)
2. BROOKLYN +2 (+1.3)
3(tie). NEW ORLEANS +2.5 (+0.6)
SACRAMENTO +7.5 (+0.6) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: DETROIT -13.5 (+0.9) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SACRAMENTO +7.5 (+2.5)
2. NEW ORLEANS +2.5 (+0.4)
3. BROOKLYN +2 (+0.1) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DETROIT -13.5 (+1.5)
2. MILWAUKEE -7 (+0.3) 

Today’s Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LAL-MIL OVER 224.5 (+1.5)
2. BKN-CHI OVER 230 (+0.4) 

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. WSH-DET UNDER 236.5 (-3.6)
2. ORL-NOP UNDER 216 (-0.6)
3. SAC-GSW UNDER 233.5 (-0.5)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BROOKLYN +2 (+2.2)
2. SACRAMENTO +7.5 (+1.3)
3. LA LAKERS +7 (+1.0) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: DETROIT -13.5 (+0.2) 

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LAL-MIL OVER 224.5 (+4.1)
2. ORL-NOP OVER 216 (+2.0)
3. SAC-GSW OVER 233.5 (+1.2) 

Today’s Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. WSH-DET UNDER 236.5 (-4.0)
2. BKN-CHI UNDER 230 (-0.3)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(501) WASHINGTON at (502) DETROIT
* Under the total is 13-4 in the WSH-DET head-to-head series since 2020
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total 

(503) LA LAKERS at (504) MILWAUKEE
* Road teams are 7-1 ATS in the last eight of the LAL-MIL head-to-head nonconference series
Trend Match: PLAY LA LAKERS ATS

(505) BROOKLYN at (506) CHICAGO
* Under the total is 7-1 in the last eight games when BKN visits Chicago
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total 

(507) ORLANDO at (508) NEW ORLEANS
* ORLANDO is 7-0 SU and ATS in the last seven visits to New Orleans
Trend Match: PLAY ORLANDO ATS 

(509) SACRAMENTO at (510) GOLDEN STATE
* Road teams are 10-2 ATS in the last 12 of the SAC-GSW head-to-head divisional series
Trend Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO ATS
* Over the total is 5-1 in the last six of head-to-head rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total

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