Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Thursday, March 6, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AI’s Takes of the Day
Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting 1/30: 36-29-1. Here are today’s results:
– BROOKLYN (+10.5 vs GSW)
BKN is underpriced in all three Makinen ratings projections + several other trends/systems fade GSW
– HOUSTON (+5 at NOP)
Recent head-to-head trend and DK Betting Split System #2 favors HOU
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Over the total is 14-2 in the last 16 of Indiana-Atlanta head-to-head series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): IND-ATL (o/u at 247.5)
* PHILADELPHIA is an impressive 40-33 SU and 45-27-1 ATS in its last 73 road games when playing on standard OneDayRest
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+14.5 at BOS)
* Teams having lost their last four games or more have also been a great wager when they are a strong defensive team, as those allowing less than 110 PPG are 50-48 SU and 58-36-4 ATS (61.7%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (-7.5 vs. CHI)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
– Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
– Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, GOLDEN STATE, HOUSTON
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last 2+ seasons, they are just 105-120 ATS, good for 46.7%. This is over a 5% drop off compared to the overall majority figures.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON, HOUSTON
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January ’23. These majority handle groups are 130-26 SU, but for -40.1 units, an ROI of -25.7%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE ML
These last two systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January ’23.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): GSW-BKN
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 282-242 (53.8%) for +15.8 units and an ROI of +3% since January ’23.
System Match (PLAY OVER): IND-ATL
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation NBA Betting Trends
The following are 40 of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* GOLDEN STATE is on extended slide of 45-59 SU and 43-61 ATS when playing on the road on One Day Rest
3/6: Fade GOLDEN STATE at Brooklyn
Trend Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-10.5 at BKN)
* HOUSTON is 13-33 SU and 16-30 ATS in its last 46 3rd Straight Road games
3/6: Fade HOUSTON at New Orleans
Trend Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-5 at NOP)
* PHILADELPHIA is an impressive 40-33 SU and 45-27-1 ATS in its last 73 road games when playing on standard One Day Rest
3/6: PHILADELPHIA at Boston
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+14.5 at BOS)
* HOUSTON is on a 37-18 Over the total surge when playing on the road in a 3rd in 4 Days scheduling scenario
3/6: Over the total in HOUSTON-NEW ORLEANS
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-NOP (o/u at 231)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details 5 different betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 146-51 SU and 118-78-1 ATS (60.2%) run.
System Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (*if they fall into this line range vs NYK, -3.5 currently)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 239-44 SU but just 133-144-6 ATS (48%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-10.5 at BKN)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 102-84 (54.8%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 203-165 (55.2%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 263-202 (56.6%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – GSW-BKN (o/u at 223.5)
UNDER – PHI-BOS (o/u at 220.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.
135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 239-130 SU but 168-193-8 ATS (46.5%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is 33-34-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): LA LAKERS (-3.5 vs. NYK)
Unusual shooting performance systems
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going 309-287 SU but 268-309-17 ATS (46.4%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-14.5 vs PHI)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #7:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have also been a great wager when they are a strong defensive team, as those allowing less than 110 PPG are 50-48 SU and 58-36-4 ATS (61.7%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (-7.5 vs. CHI)
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 236-286-3 ATS (45.2%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 30-131 SU and 70-86-5 ATS (44.9%).
System Match (FADE): LA LAKERS (-3.5 vs. NYK)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BROOKLYN +10.5 (+3.0)
2. NEW YORK +3.5 (+0.5)
3. NEW ORLEANS +5 (+0.1)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOSTON -14.5 (+2.1)
2. ORLANDO -7.5 (+0.6)
3. INDIANA -3 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BROOKLYN +10.5 (+7.2)
2. CHICAGO +7.5 (+1.1)
3. ATLANTA +3 (+0.3)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOSTON -14.5 (+1.7)
2. HOUSTON -5 (+0.3)
Today’s Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHI-ORL OVER 218 (+2.7)
2. IND-ATL OVER 247.5 (+0.7)
Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. HOU-NOP UNDER 231 (-2.8)
2. GSW-BKN UNDER 223.5 (-1.9)
3. NYK-LAL UNDER 231.5 (-0.8)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW YORK +3.5 (+3.4)
2. BROOKLYN +10.5 (+2.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ORLANDO -7.5 (+1.2)
2. BOSTON -14.5 (+0.8)
3. HOUSTON -5 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHI-BOS OVER 220.5 (+1.2)
2. IND-ATL OVER 247.5 (+0.8)
Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NYK-LAL UNDER 231.5 (-6.3)
2. HOU-NOP UNDER 231 (-4.2)
3. GSW-BKN UNDER 223.5 (-1.4)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(551) PHILADELPHIA at (552) BOSTON
* OVER the total is 5-1 in L6 of PHI-BOS head-to-head divisional rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total
(553) INDIANA at (554) ATLANTA
* Over the total is 14-2 in the last 16 of the IND-ATL head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total
(555) GOLDEN STATE at (556) BROOKLYN
* BROOKLYN is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 games versus GSW
Trend Match: PLAY BROOKLYN ATS
* UNDER the total is 6-2 in the last eight of the GSW-BKN head-to-head series at Brooklyn
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(557) HOUSTON at (558) NEW ORLEANS
* Favorites are 10-3 ATS in the last 13 of the HOU-NOP divisional rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY HOUSTON ATS
(559) NEW YORK at (560) LA LAKERS
* Road teams/underdogs have won five straight SU and ATS in head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY NEW YORK
