Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Thursday, October 24, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Road teams have covered 10 straight ATS in the OKC-DEN series
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY (+2 at DEN)
* Underdogs have covered eight straight ATS in the MIN-SAC series
System Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO (+1 vs MIN)
In double-digit spread NBA non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 224-153 (59.4%) over the last four seasons.
System Match: PLAY OVER in BOS-WSH (o/u at 232)
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 94-75 ATS (55.6%).
System Match: PLAY DENVER (-2 vs. OKC)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic NBA betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 94-75 ATS (55.6%). This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match: PLAY DENVER (-2 vs. OKC)
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Match: PLAY BOSTON (-13.5 at WSH)
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Match: PLAY BOSTON (-13.5 at WSH)
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 782-357 over the last 1-1/2 seasons but for -131.98 units and an ROI of -11.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 571-358 but for +23.75 units and an ROI of +2.6%. This 14.2% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Match: PLAY ROAD TEAMS ML – BOSTON, MINNESOTA
FADE HOME TEAMS ML – DALLAS, DENVER
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority money line handle was on a team in a divisional matchup last season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on handle for +30 units, an ROI of 11.5%. This ROI is a notable improvement over all other matchups.
System Match: FADE DENVER ML, FADE DALLAS ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January 2023. These majority handle groups are 97-22 SU but for -46.6 units, an ROI of -39.2%. while majority number of bets groups have gone 101-22 SU but for -43.6 units, an ROI of -35.4%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Match: FADE BOSTON ML
These last three systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Match: PLAY UNDER in: SAS-DAL, OKC-DEN
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January ’23.
System Match: PLAY OVER in: SAS-DAL
DK NBA Betting Splits system #16: Majority Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising the total off of its opening number. These UNDER majorities have gone 106-71 (59.9%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Match: PLAY UNDER in: OKC-DEN
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!
NO QUALIFYING SCHEDULING SITUATION PLAYS TODAY (first few for the season tomorrow 10/25)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on some various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 83-69 (54.6%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 158-131 (54.7%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 224-153 (59.4%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in BOS-WSH (o/u at 232)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 237-233 SU and 210-247-11 ATS (46%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-13.5 at WSH)
NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 125-150 SU and 123-145-7 ATS (45.9%) in that next contest over the last six seasons.
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-13.5 at WSH)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS YET THIS SEASON
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OKLAHOMA CITY +2 (+1.1)
2. SACRAMENTO +1 (+0.7)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOSTON -13.5 (+1.6)
2. DALLAS -8.5 (+1.4)
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
OKLAHOMA CITY +2 (+0.9)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOSTON -13.5 (+4.9)
2. MINNESOTA -1 (+1.1)
3. DALLAS -8.5 (+0.2)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
OKC-DEN OVER 227.5 (+1.9)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOS-WSH UNDER 232 (-2.3)
2. MIN-SAC UNDER 221.5 (-1.7)
3. SAS-DAL UNDER 229 (-0.7)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OKLAHOMA CITY +2 (+1.6)
2. SACRAMENTO +1 (+0.5)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
DALLAS -8.5 (+1.2)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
MIN-SAC OVER 221.5 (+0.8)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OKC-DEN UNDER 227.5 (-4.1)
2. BOS-WSH UNDER 232 (-2.2)
3. SAS-DAL UNDER 229 (-2.1)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(525) BOSTON at (526) WASHINGTON
* Over the total is 6-0 in the last six meetings between BOS and WSH
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 232)
(527) SAN ANTONIO at (528) DALLAS
* DALLAS is 5-2 ATS in the series with SAS since 2023
System Match: PLAY DALLAS (-8 vs. SAS)
(529) OKLAHOMA CITY at (530) DENVER
* Road teams have covered 10 straight ATS in the series
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY (+2 at DEN)
(531) MINNESOTA at (532) SACRAMENTO
* Underdogs have covered eight straight ATS in the series
System Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO (+1 vs. MIN)
