The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA play-in games of Tuesday, April 15 and Wednesday, April 16, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AI’s Takes of the Day

Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting January 30: 80-65-3 (55.2%). Here are today’s results: 

— CHICAGO (-1 vs MIA)
Two DK Betting Splits systems, Makinen effective strength ratings projection and recent h2h trend all favor the Bulls

— DAL-SAC UNDER 215.5
Three DK Betting Splits systems, scheduling situation and recent h2h trend all favor the Under

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 99-61 SU and 94-63-3 ATS (59.9%) in that follow-up try over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (-5.5 vs ATL)

* Under the total was 38-18 (67.9%) since the start of last season when the home team was playing a 3rd Straight Home game versus a road team on 4th in 10+ Days scenario.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DAL-SAC (o/u at 215.5)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results:

–   Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
–   Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
–   Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
–   Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
–   Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
–   Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a four-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 129-109 ATS (54.2%) over the last two-plus seasons. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly two-thirds of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last two-plus seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last two-plus seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: Majority handle money line wagerers have struggled in each of the last two playoff seasons, with handle majorities going 97-76 for -33.6 units and an ROI of -19.4%. Compare this to the usual ML return of -5.2% and you can see bettors are losing on a lot of favorite plays. This system will be significant starting in April.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ORLANDO ML, GOLDEN STATE ML, CHICAGO ML, SACRAMENTO ML

These last three systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have uncovered is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. Bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number has favored the Under option over the last two-plus seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MEM-GSW, MIA-CHI, DAL-SAC

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – ATL-MIA
UNDER – MIA-CHI, DAL-SAC

DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 136-102 (57.1%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MEM-GSW, MIA-CHI, DAL-SAC

The following are 40 of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

* Under the total was 38-18 (67.9%) since the start of last season when the home team was playing a 3rd Straight Home game versus a road team on 4th in 10+ Days scenario.
4/16: Under the total in DALLAS-SACRAMENTO
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DAL-SAC (o/u at 215.5)

* ATLANTA is 53-30 Over the total since 2022 when playing a 4th in 6 Days game
4/15: Over the total at Orlando
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-ORL (o/u at 218.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.

Divisional upsets can create urgency
NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 99-61 SU and 94-63-3 ATS (59.9%) in that follow-up try over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (-5.5 vs ATL)

Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing and are on an 183-153 SU and 187-139-10 ATS (57.4%) run.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (+5.5 at ORL), SACRAMENTO (-4.5 vs DAL)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS ON TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1 (tie). ATLANTA +5.5 (+0.3)
MIAMI +1 (+0.3)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GOLDEN STATE -7 (+1.3)
2. SACRAMENTO -4.5 (+0.3)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MEMPHIS +7 (+4.7)
2. DALLAS +4.5 (+3.4)
3. ATLANTA +5.5 (+0.1)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: CHICAGO -1 (+0.5) 

Today’s Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DAL-SAC OVER 215.5 (+2.5)
2. MIA-CHI OVER 219 (+0.7)

Today’s Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ATL-ORL UNDER 218.5 (-2.8)
2. MEM-GSW UNDER 229.5 (-2.2)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIAMI +1 (+2.5)
2. DALLAS +4.5 (+0.5)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GOLDEN STATE -7 (+2.1)
2. ORLANDO -5.5 (+0.8)

Today’s Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIA-CHI OVER 219 (+3.5)
2. DAL-SAC OVER 215.5 (+2.2)

Today’s Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ATL-ORL UNDER 218.5 (-3.8)
2. MEM-GSW UNDER 229.5 (-1.8)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

TUESDAY
(579) MEMPHIS at (580) GOLDEN STATE
* Home teams are 17-3 SU and 15-5 ATS in the last 20 of MEM-GSW series (only 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS in the last six, however)
Trend Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE

WEDNESDAY
(583) MIAMI at (584) CHICAGO
* Chicago is 8-4 SU and 9-3 ATS in the last 12 games against Miami
Trend Match: PLAY CHICAGO

(585) DALLAS at (586) SACRAMENTO
* Under the total is 14-4 in the last 18 of DAL-SAC series (including 7-1 in the last eight)
Trend Match: PLAY Under the total

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