Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Tuesday, April 8, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AI’s Take of the Day
Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting January 30: 73-60-3 (54.9%). Here is today’s result:
— ORLANDO (-4.5 vs ATL)
All three Makinen ratings projections and recent h2h trend favor ORL + scheduling trend, and three extreme stats systems fade ATL
— PHOENIX (+9.5 vs GSW)
Makinen effective strength ratings projection, streak system #6 and recent h2h trend all favor PHX, plus DK Betting Splits system #8 and scheduling trend both fade GSW
— MEM-CHA OVER 229
DK Betting Splits system #13, team strength system #5, Makinen effective strength ratings projection and recent h2h trend all favor Over
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* FAVORITES are 14-1 SU and 12-3 ATS in the last 15 of San Antonio-LA Clippers series
Trend Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS
* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 158-102 SU but 113-144-3 ATS (44%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+5.5 vs MIN)
* NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3-point field goal attempts in a game have responded the next time by going just 293-304 SU and 269-320-8 ATS (45.7%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (+4.5 at ORL), LA LAKERS (+14.5 at OKC)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a four-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 129-109 ATS (54.2%) over the last two-plus seasons. This is fairly a profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly two-thirds of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MEMPHIS, BOSTON, MINNESOTA, GOLDEN STATE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last two-plus seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 70-104 ATS (40.2%), well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE): LA CLIPPERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last two-plus seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved on these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MEMPHIS, BROOKLYN, MINNESOTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last two-plus seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, LA CLIPPERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last two-plus seasons, they are just 105-120 ATS, good for 46.7%. This is over a 5% drop-off compared to the overall majority figures.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, BOSTON, GOLDEN STATE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January 2023. These majority handle groups are 130-26 SU but for -40.1 units, an ROI of -25.7%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Match (FADE): MEMPHIS ML
These last three systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest and most frequent angles I have uncovered is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. Most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last two-plus seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MEM-CHA, WSH-IND, BOS-NYK, LAL-OKC, GSW-PHX
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 282-242 (53.8%) for +15.8 units and an ROI of +3% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – MEM-CHA, CHI-CLE, SAS-LAC
UNDER – WSH-IND
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY): OVER – NOP-BKN
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 158-102 SU but 113-144-3 ATS (44%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last four seasons.
* Home teams playing on 2 Days Rest are 85-46 SU but 59-71-1 ATS (45.4%) hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game over the last four seasons.
4/8: FADE MILWAUKEE vs. Minnesota
Systems Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+5.5 vs MIN)
* ATLANTA is on 11-36 SU and 13-33-1 ATS skid when playing on the road in its 3rd Game in 4 Days
4/8: FADE ATLANTA at Orlando
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+4.5 at ORL)
* CHARLOTTE is 35-92 SU and 49-74-2 ATS since the 2022-23 season when playing at home on One Day Rest
4/8: FADE CHARLOTTE vs. Memphis
Trend Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (+14 vs MEM)
* GOLDEN STATE is on an extended slide of 49-60 SU and 46-63 ATS when playing on the road on One Day Rest
4/8: FADE GOLDEN STATE at Phoenix
Trend Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-9.5 at PHX)
* LA CLIPPERS are 20-16 SU but 9-27 ATS in their last 36 games at home playing on 2 Days Rest
4/8: FADE LA CLIPPERS vs. San Antonio
Trend Match (FADE ATS): LA CLIPPERS (-12.5 vs SAS)
* LA CLIPPERS are 29-10 Under the total since 2020-21 when playing at home on 2 Days Rest
4/8: UNDER the total in LA CLIPPERS-SAN ANTONIO
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SAS-LAC (o/u at 227.5)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 114-78 SU and 116-73-3 ATS (61.4%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+3 at BKN)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 262-47 SU but just 144-159-6 ATS (47.5%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE ATS): MEMPHIS (-14 at CHA)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 109-88 (55.3%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 221-173 (56.1%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 279-215 (56.5%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – MEM-CHA (o/u at 229), WSH-IND (o/u at 239), LAL-OKC (o/u at 226), SAS-LAC (o/u at 227.5)
UNDER – CHI-CLE (o/u at 240)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.
Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off of a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 153-93 SU but 112-130-4 ATS (46.3%) in the follow-up contest over the last six seasons. Included among this is a 93-114 ATS mark when not playing the next day
System Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS (-12.5 vs SAS)
Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 299-230 SU but 238-276-15 ATS (46.3%) over the last six seasons. The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 42-67-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS (-12.5 vs SAS)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3-point field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 293-304 SU and 269-320-8 ATS (45.7%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (+4.5 at ORL), LA LAKERS (+14.5 at OKC)
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3-point field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going 333-299 SU but 287-326-17 ATS (46.8%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (+4.5 at ORL), LA LAKERS (+14.5 at OKC), BOSTON (+1.5 at NYK)
NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 166-177 SU and 156-178-9 ATS (46.7%) in that next contest over the last six seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (+4.5 at ORL), LA LAKERS (+14.5 at OKC), BOSTON (+1.5 at NYK)
Unusual defensive performances
Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3-point field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 196-76 SU and 143-126-3 ATS (53.2%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-14.5 vs LAL)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 123-23 SU but 63-80-3 ATS (44.1%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL ATS): INDIANA (-19 vs WSH), LA CLIPPERS (-12.5 vs SAS)
NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 75-18 SU and 52-38-3 ATS (57.8%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (*if they fall into this line range at MIL, -5.5 currently*)
NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on an 82-89 SU but 97-72-3 ATS (57.4%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (+9.5 vs GSW)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MILWAUKEE +5.5 (+3.6)
2 (tie). CHARLOTTE +14.5 (+1.3)
CHICAGO +12.5 (+1.3)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA CLIPPERS -12.5 (+2.0)
2. ORLANDO -4.5 (+1.9)
3. BROOKLYN -3 (+1.0)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAN ANTONIO +12.5 (+3.6)
2. LA LAKERS +15 (+3.0)
3. PHOENIX +9.5 (+2.7)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ORLANDO -4.5 (+2.5)
2. BROOKLYN -3 (+1.8)
3. MEMPHIS -14.5 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIN-MIL OVER 223 (+3.5)
2. GSW-PHX OVER 226.5 (+2.0)
3. MEM-CHA OVER 229 (+1.5)
Today’s Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ATL-ORL UNDER 224.5 (-2.1)
2. LAL-OKC UNDER 226.5 (-1.1)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MILWAUKEE +5.5 (+4.4)
2. WASHINGTON +19 (+4.1)
3. BOSTON +1.5 (+0.7)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ORLANDO -4.5 (+2.3)
2. LA CLIPPERS -12.5 (+1.2)
3. BROOKLYN -3 (+1.0)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIN-MIL OVER 223 (+4.1)
2. CHI-CLE OVER 240 (+2.6)
3. GSW-PHX OVER 226.5 (+1.5)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NOP-BKN UNDER 213 (-4.1)
2. ATL-ORL UNDER 224.5 (-1.5)
3. LAL-OKC UNDER 226.5 (-1.2)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(537) ATLANTA at (538) ORLANDO
* ORLANDO is 6-2 ATS in the last eight games versus ATL
Trend Match: PLAY ORLANDO ATS
(539) MEMPHIS at (540) CHARLOTTE
* Over the total is 12-3 in the last 15 of MEM-CHA nonconference series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total
(541) WASHINGTON at (542) INDIANA
* INDIANA is 9-2 SU and 7-1-3 ATS in the last 11 games hosting WSH
Trend Match: PLAY INDIANA
(545) BOSTON at (546) NEW YORK
* BOSTON is 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight matchups with NYK
Trend Match: PLAY BOSTON
(547) NEW ORLEANS at (548) BROOKLYN
* FAVORITES are 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS in the last 11 of NOP-BKN series
Trend Match: PLAY BROOKLYN
(549) MINNESOTA at (550) MILWAUKEE
* ROAD TEAMS are 8-5 SU and 10-3 ATS in the last 13 of MIN-MIL series
Trend Match: PLAY MINNESOTA
(551) LA LAKERS at (552) OKLAHOMA CITY
* LA LAKERS are 6-2 ATS in the last eight visits to OKC
Trend Match: PLAY LA LAKERS ATS
(553) GOLDEN STATE at (554) PHOENIX
* PHOENIX is 8-3 SU & 9-2 ATS in the last 11 matchups with GSW
Trend Match: PLAY PHOENIX
(555) SAN ANTONIO at (556) LA CLIPPERS
* FAVORITES are 14-1 SU and 12-3 ATS in the last 15 of SAS-LAC series
Trend Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS
