The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Tuesday, December 10, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 139-48 SU and 112-74-1 ATS (60.2%) run.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-4.5 vs DAL)

* MILWAUKEE is on a 35-37 SU and 24-47-1 ATS skid in the last 72 when playing on standard One Day Rest
Trend Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-7 vs ORL)

* NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 274-232 (54.2%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DAL-OKC (o/u at 231)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: When there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1 1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season and a half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE, OKLAHOMA CITY

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 782-357 over the last 1 1/2 seasons but for -131.98 units and an ROI of -11.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 571-358 but for +23.75 units and an ROI of +2.6%. This 14.2% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Match (FADE): HOME TEAMS – MILWAUKEE ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for a money line wager over the last 1 1/2 seasons, this majority group has done well, going 86-138 but for +19.67 units and an ROI of +8.8%. It takes patience to wager something that wins only 38% of the time, but the reward is there.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS ML

These last four systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year and a half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DAL-OKC

DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY OVER): ORL-MIL

DK NBA Betting Splits system #16: Majority Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising the total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 106-71 (59.9%) since January ’23 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DAL-OKC

The following are 40 of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 138-93 SU but 101-127-3 ATS (44.3%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last four seasons.
12/10: FADE OKLAHOMA CITY vs. Dallas
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-4.5 vs DAL)

* MILWAUKEE is on a 35-37 SU and 24-47-1 ATS skid in the last 72 when playing on standard One Day Rest
12/10: FADE MILWAUKEE vs. Orlando
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-7 vs ORL)

* OKLAHOMA CITY is 27-16 SU and 29-13-1 ATS in its last 43 games playing on 2 Days Rest
12/10: OKLAHOMA CITY vs. Dallas
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-4.5 vs DAL)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 139-48 SU and 112-74-1 ATS (60.2%) run.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-4.5 vs DAL)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 274-232 (54.2%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DAL-OKC (o/u at 231)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play-against teams in general, going 206-256-2 ATS (44.6%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 27-115 SU and 60-78-4 ATS (43.5%).
System Match (FADE): DALLAS (+4.5 at OKC)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DALLAS +4.5 (+1.3)
2. ORLANDO +7 (+0.2)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OKLAHOMA CITY -4.5 (+0.5)
2. MILWAUKEE -7 (+0.2)

Today’s Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ORL-MIL OVER 215 (+3.0)
2. DAL-OKC OVER 230.5 (+1.4)

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: DALLAS +4.5 (+0.9)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: MILWAUKEE -7 (+0.2)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: DAL-OKC OVER 230.5 (+2.1)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: ORL-MIL UNDER 215 (-3.6)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(529) DALLAS at (530) OKLAHOMA CITY
* UNDERDOGS/ROAD TEAMS have covered five of the last six meetings between DAL and OKC
System Match: PLAY DALLAS ATS

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