The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Tuesday, December 3, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 69-25 SU and 60-33-1 ATS (64.5%).
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-4.5 at CHA)

* Under the total was 72-44 (62.1%) over the last four seasons when one team was on 2 Days Rest and the opponent was playing a 3rd game in 8+ Days.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-DET (o/u at 220.5)

* UNDERDOGS are 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings between Golden State and Denver
Trend Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (+5 at DEN)

* NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 258-204 SU but 199-251-12 ATS (44.2%) over the last six seasons.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (-4.5 vs ORL)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic NBA betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a four-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wagers, this “super” majority group has gone 94-75 ATS (55.6%). This is fairly a profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly two-thirds of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season and a half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, MILWAUKEE, ORLANDO, INDIANA, SAN ANTONIO, HOUSTON

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1 1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, DALLAS, DENVER, PORTLAND

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season and a half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, PHILADELPHIA, INDIANA, SAN ANTONIO, DENVER, HOUSTON

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on MONEY LINE wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles, too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority money line handle was on a team in a divisional matchup last season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on HANDLE for +30 units, an ROI of 11.5%. This ROI is a notable improvement over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE ML, OKLAHOMA CITY ML, DALLAS ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for a money line wager over the last 1 1/2 seasons, this majority group has done well, going 86-138 but for +19.67 units and an ROI of +8.8%. It takes patience to wager something that wins only 38% of the time, but the reward is there.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON ML

These last four systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. Most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year and a half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): PHI-CHA, MIL-DET, IND-TOR, UTA-OKC, GSW-DEN, POR-LAC

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MEM-DAL, GSW-DEN

DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY OVER): ORL-NYK

DK NBA Betting Splits system #16: Majority Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 106-71 (59.9%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): GSW-DEN, POR-LAC

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long! 

* Teams playing a 3rd game in 8+ Days are 65-40 SU and 64-39-2 ATS (62.1%) versus teams playing a 2 Days Rest game over the last four seasons.
12/3: MILWAUKEE at Detroit
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-3 at DET)

* Under the total was 72-44 (62.1%) over the last four seasons when one team was on 2 Days Rest and the opponent was playing a 3rd game in 8+ Days.
12/3: Under the total in DETROIT-MILWAUKEE
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-DET (o/u at 220.5)

* Under the total was 21-7 (75%) last season when the home team was playing a 3rd Straight Home game versus a road team on 4th in 10+ Days scenario.
12/3: Under the total in CHARLOTTE-PHILADELPHIA
System Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-CHA (o/u at 211)

* ORLANDO is on a 15-16 SU and 22-9 ATS run when playing a 3rd Straight Road game
12/3: ORLANDO at New York
System Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (+4.5 at NYK)

* PHOENIX is 20-15 SU but 12-22-1 ATS in its last 35 3rd Straight Home games
12/3: FADE PHOENIX vs. San Antonio
System Match (FADE): PHOENIX (-7.5 vs SAS)

* UTAH is on a 40-20 Over the total run when playing on the road with OneDayRest
12/3: Over the total in UTAH-OKLAHOMA CITY
System Match (PLAY): UTA-OKC (o/u at 224)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 137-47 SU and 110-73-1 ATS (60.1%) run.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-4.5 vs ORL)
Also PLAY DALLAS vs MEM (*if they fall into the above line range, -4 currently*)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 97-64 SU and 96-62-3 ATS (60.8%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-4.5 at CHA)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 69-25 SU and 60-33-1 ATS (64.5%).
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-4.5 at CHA)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 92-77 (54.4%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 164-142 (53.6%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, OVer the total was 233-172 (57.5%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – WSH-CLE (o/u at 234.5)
UNDER – UTA-OKC (o/u at 224)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.

135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 205-121 SU but 145-175-6 ATS (45.3%) skid in the follow-up game when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is a concerning 29-33-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): DALLAS (-4 vs MEM)

Rout wins are a warning sign for next game for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 258-204 SU but 199-251-12 ATS (44.2%) over the last six seasons. The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 36-63 ATS.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (-4.5 vs ORL)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 273-228 (54.5%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): HOUSTON (+1 at SAC)

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3-point field goal attempts in a game have responded the next time out by going just 244-257 SU and 223-272-6 ATS (45.1%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DALLAS (-4 vs MEM), SAN ANTONIO (+7.5 at PHX), PORTLAND (+8.5 at LAC), PHOENIX (-7.5 vs SAS)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3-point field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 264-249 SU and 230-270-11 ATS (46%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW YORK (-4.5 vs ORL), SAN ANTONIO (+7.5 at PHX)

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 134-160 SU and 132-155-7 ATS (46%) in that next game over the last six seasons.
System Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO (+7.5 at PHX)

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3-point field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 162-60 SU and 123-96-3 ATS (56.2%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (-1 vs HOU)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 3.2% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (172-191 ATS, 47.4%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (229-223 ATS, 50.7%) over the last four seasons.
System Matches: FADE – CHARLOTTE (+4.5 vs PHI)
SLIGHT PLAY – WASHINGTON (+16 at CLE), UTAH (+13.5 at OKC)

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play-against teams in general, going 203-252-2 ATS (44.6%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 26-114 SU and 59-77-4 ATS (43.4%).
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+16 at CLE)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAN ANTONIO +7.5 (+5.7)
2. HOUSTON +1.5 (+3.7)
3. TORONTO +3 (+2.3)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND -16 (+3.8)
2. LA CLIPPERS -8.5 (+2.5)
3. OKLAHOMA CITY -13.5 (+2.2)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAN ANTONIO +7.5 (+7.2)
2. TORONTO +3 (+5.0)
3. HOUSTON +1.5 (+4.2)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: NONE TODAY

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1 (tie). WSH-CLE OVER 234 (+2.3)
ORL-NYK OVER 214.5 (+2.3)
3. POR-LAC OVER 221 (+2.1)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTA-OKC UNDER 224 (-1.2)
2. IND-TOR UNDER 238 (-0.8)
3. SAS-PHX UNDER 229 (-0.3)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAN ANTONIO +7.5 (+3.1)
2. GOLDEN STATE +5 (+0.9)
3. DETROIT +3 (+0.7)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND -16 (+5.3)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -13.5 (+4.4)
3. LA CLIPPERS -8.5 (+3.0)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAS-PHX OVER 229 (+5.5)
2. MIL-DET OVER 220.5 (+3.1)
3. ORL-NYK OVER 214.5 (+2.8)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches: 1. IND-TOR UNDER 238 (-4.8)
2. POR-LAC UNDER 221 (-2.4)
3. HOU-SAC UNDER 227.5 (-1.0)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(501) WASHINGTON at (502) CLEVELAND
* CLEVELAND has covered five of the last six ATS when hosting Washington
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND ATS

(505) MILWAUKEE at (506) DETROIT
* OVER the total is 6-1 in the last seven of this rivalry
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(507) INDIANA at (508) TORONTO
* OVER the total is 6-0-1 in the seven matchups between IND and TOR since 2023
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(509) ORLANDO at (510) NEW YORK
* UNDER the total is 8-1 in the last nine of ORL-NYK series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(511) UTAH at (512) OKLAHOMA CITY
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 5-1 ATS in its last six games hosting Utah, but did lose the last time
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY ATS

(513) MEMPHIS at (514) DALLAS
* ROAD TEAMS have won seven straight ATS in MEM-DAL series
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS ATS
* UNDER the total is 7-1 in the last eight meetings in Dallas
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(515) SAN ANTONIO at (516) PHOENIX
* SAN ANTONIO is 6-1 ATS in the last seven games visiting Phoenix
System Match: PLAY SAN ANTONIO ATS

(519) GOLDEN STATE at (520) DENVER
* UNDERDOGS are 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings between GSW and DEN
System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE ATS

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR