Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Tuesday, February 25, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AI’s Takes of the Day
Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. Here are today’s results:
– BOS-TOR UNDER 225
Several scheduling situations and recent head-to-head trend favors Under
– DALLAS (+9 at LAL)
DK Betting Splits system #5 and extreme stats system #8 fade LAL + recent head-to-head trend favors Dallas
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Under the total is 13-1 in the last 14 of Charlotte-Golden State head-to-head non-conference series
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total in CHA-GSW (o/u at 220)
* Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 67-18 SU and 48-35-2 ATS (57.8%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-11 at TOR), CLEVELAND (-7.5 at ORL)
* NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 147-99 SU and 140-99-7 ATS (58.6%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (-3 vs. SAS)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
– Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
– Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 129-109 ATS (54.2%) over the last 2+ seasons. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, CLEVELAND, MILWAUKEE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE, NEW ORLEANS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 70-104 ATS (40.2%), well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Match (FADE): LA LAKERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, MEMPHIS, LA LAKERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last 2+ seasons, they are just 105-120 ATS, good for 46.7%. This is over a 5% drop off compared to the overall majority figures.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON, NEW ORLEANS
Here are some more specific money line angles:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on the handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1002-470 over the last 2+ seasons but for -214.88 units and an ROI of -14.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 746-483 but for +3.48 units and an ROI of +0.2%. This 14.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – MEMPHIS ML, NEW ORLEANS ML, LA LAKERS ML, GOLDEN STATE ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January 2023. These majority handle groups are 130-26 SU, but for -40.1 units, an ROI of -25.7%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON ML
These last two systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CLE-ORL, PHX-MEM, SAS-NOP, CHA-GSW
DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising the total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 136-102 (57.1%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHX-MEM, SAS-NOP
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Under the total was 14-1 (93.3%) last season when the home team was playing its 4th Home in 10+ Days and the road team was playing on One Day Rest.
2/25: Under the total in TORONTO-BOSTON
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-TOR (o/u at 225)
* Under the total is on a 77-34-1 (69.4%) in the last 112 when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a One Day Rest game.
2/25: Under the total in LA LAKERS-DALLAS
2/25: Under the total in HOUSTON-MILWAUKEE
2/25: Under the total in BOSTON-TORONTO
2/25: Under the total in NEW ORLEANS-SAN ANTONIO
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): DAL-LAL (o/u at 233.5), MIL-HOU (o/u at 227), BOS-TOR (o/u at 225), SAS-NOP (o/u at 240.5)
* Under the total was 36-18 (66.7%) since the start of last season when the home team was playing a 3rd Straight Home game versus a road team on 4th in 10+ Days scenario.
2/25: Under the total in TORONTO-BOSTON
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-TOR (o/u at 225)
* MILWAUKEE is on a 47-44 SU and 34-56-1 ATS skid in the last 91 when playing on standard One Day Rest
2/25: Fade MILWAUKEE at Houston
Trend Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+3.5 at HOU)
* TORONTO is on a 32-20 SU and ATS run when playing a 3rd Straight Home game
2/25: TORONTO vs. Boston
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+11 vs. BOS)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 230-44 SU but just 127-141-6 ATS (47.4%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-17 vs. CHA)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the L4 seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 100-83 (54.6%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 195-164 (54.3%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 261-199 (56.7%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – CHA-GSW (o/u at 220)
UNDER – BOS-TOR (o/u at 225)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.
Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 285-222 SU but 225-268-14 ATS (45.6%) over the last 6 seasons. The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 40-66 ATS.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO (+11 vs. BOS), LA LAKERS (-9 vs. DAL)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 292-249 (54%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-ORL (o/u at 222.5)
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 271-286 SU and 247-303-7 ATS (44.9%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (+11 vs. BOS)
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going 303-281 SU but 262-304-16 ATS (46.3%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (+11 vs BOS)
Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 147-99 SU and 140-99-7 ATS (58.6%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (-3 vs. SAS)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 67-18 SU and 48-35-2 ATS (57.8%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-11 at TOR), CLEVELAND (-7.5 at ORL)
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 230-282-3 ATS (44.9%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 30-130 SU and 69-86-5 ATS (44.5%).
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-7.5 at ORL)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ORLANDO +7.5 (+2.0)
2. MILWAUKEE +3.5 (+1.7)
3. PHOENIX +7.5 (+1.2)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: BOSTON -11 (+0.8)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHARLOTTE +17 (+3.7)
2. DALLAS +9 (+2.9)
3. PHOENIX +7.5 (+2.0)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: BOSTON -11 (+0.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHX-MEM OVER 245.5 (+0.4)
2. SAS-NOP OVER 240.5 (+0.3)
3. BOS-TOR OVER 225 (+0.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLE-ORL UNDER 222.5 (-1.5)
2. MIL-HOU UNDER 227 (-1.0)
3. DAL-LAL UNDER 233.5 (-0.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ORLANDO +7.5 (+2.8)
2. SAN ANTONIO +3 (+1.3)
3. MILWAUKEE +3.5 (+1.1)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOSTON -11 (+2.0)
2. LA LAKERS -9 (+1.7)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHA-GSW OVER 220 (+6.1)
2. MIL-HOU OVER 227 (+2.4)
3. BOS-TOR OVER 225 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAS-NOP UNDER 240.5 (-2.2)
2. PHX-MEM UNDER 245.5 (-1.7)
3. CLE-ORL UNDER 222.5 (-1.3)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(565) BOSTON at (566) TORONTO
* Under the total has converted in five straight meetings between BOS and TOR at Toronto
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(567) CLEVELAND at (568) ORLANDO
* Favorites are 13-3 ATS in the last 16 of the CLE-ORL series
Trend Match: PLAY CLEVELAND ATS
(569) PHOENIX at (570) MEMPHIS
* Road teams are 9-3 ATS in the last 12 of the PHX-MEM series
Trend Match: PLAY PHOENIX ATS
(571) MILWAUKEE at (572) HOUSTON
* Home teams are 6-1 ATS in the last seven of the MIL-HOU non-conference series, but did lose last time
Trend Match: PLAY HOUSTON ATS
(573) SAN ANTONIO at (574) NEW ORLEANS
* NEW ORLEANS is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 games versus SAS
Trend Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS ATS
(575) DALLAS at (576) LA LAKERS
* DALLAS is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 games versus LAL
Trend Match: PLAY DALLAS ATS
* Under the total is 10-1 in the last 11 matchups between DAL and LAL in Los Angeles
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(577) CHARLOTTE at (578) GOLDEN STATE
* Under the total is 13-1 in the last 14 of the CHA-GSW non-conference series
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
