The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Tuesday, February 4, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AI’s Takes of the Day

Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. Here are today’s results: 

– PORTLAND (+5.5 vs IND)
Several scheduling situations favor Portland

– CLEVELAND (-2 vs BOS)
Cleveland has done well recently versus Boston, and a couple of extreme stats systems fade Boston

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Home teams playing a 4th Straight Home are 36-20 SU and 37-18-1 ATS (67.3%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
System Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (+5.5 vs IND)

* Under the total is 9-2 in the last 11 of Houston-Brooklyn non-conference series
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total in HOU-BKN (o/u at 211)

* NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3-point field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 180-68 SU and 133-112-3 ATS (54.3%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-2.5 vs DAL)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results:

– Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
– Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
– Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2%

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a four-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 129-109 ATS (54.2%) over the last two-plus seasons. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly two-thirds of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON, MIAMI

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last two-plus seasons, that group produced a 66-50 ATS record (56.9%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 116 games was only about 4.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last two-plus seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, TORONTO,

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last two-plus seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved on these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, HOUSTON

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last two-plus seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1002-470 over the last two-plus seasons but for -214.88 units and an ROI of -14.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 746-483 but for +3.48 units and an ROI of +0.2%. This 14.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – PHILADELPHIA ML, PORTLAND ML

These last two systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have uncovered is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last two-plus seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January 2023.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NYK-TOR

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY OVER): HOU-BKN

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long! 

* Teams playing on 3rd Straight Home game were 78-40 SU and 69-44-5 ATS (61.1%) hosting teams playing a A2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
2/4: PORTLAND vs. Indiana
System Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (+5.5 vs IND)

* Road teams playing an A2A b2b game are 31-39 SU but 40-29-3 ATS (58%) facing hosts playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game over the last four seasons.
2/4: INDIANA at Portland
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (-5.5 at POR)

* Host teams playing a 4th Straight Home game are 36-20 SU and 37-18-1 ATS (67.3%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
2/4: PORTLAND vs. Indiana
System Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (+5.5 vs IND)

* Home teams playing in a 3rd Home in 4 Days game scenario were 33-23 SU and 32-21-3 ATS (60.4%) since the start of last season hosting teams a 3rd in 4 Days game.
2/4: PORTLAND vs. Indiana
System Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (+5.5 vs IND)

* Over the total was 92-74 (55.4%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on an A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4th in 6 Days game.
2/4: Over the total in INDIANA-PORTLAND
System Match (PLAY OVER): IND-POR (o/u at 234)

* Over the total was 42-30 (58.3%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing an A2A b2b game.
2/4: Over the total in PORTLAND-INDIANA
System Match (PLAY OVER): IND-POR (o/u at 234)

* Over the total was 53-48 (52.5%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
2/4: Over the total in TORONTO-NEW YORK
System Match (PLAY OVER): NYK-TOR (o/u at 229.5)

The following are 40 of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

* NEW YORK is on 27-21 SU and 31-17 ATS run on the road in the 3rd in 4 Days game scenario
2/4: NEW YORK at Toronto
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-4 at TOR)

* TORONTO is on a 31-18 SU and ATS run when playing a 3rd Straight Home game
2/4: TORONTO vs. New York
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+4 vs NYK)

* HOUSTON is on a 36-16 Over the total surge when playing on the road in a 3rd in 4 Days scheduling scenario
2/4: Over the total in HOUSTON-BROOKLYN
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-BKN (o/u at 211)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NO QUALIFYING TEAM STRENGTH SYSTEMS TODAY

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

Fade teams off of overtime games
Teams that played in an overtime game the prior day are on a 57-87 SU and 60-79-5 ATS (43.1%) slide, including 31-48-3 ATS in the last 82 games and 20-35 ATS when a pick-’em or favorite.
System Match (FADE): PORTLAND (+5.5 vs IND)

135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 227-128 SU but 161-187-7 ATS (46.3%) skid in the follow-up game when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is 32-33-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-2 vs BOS)

Back-to-back scoring outbursts could be the beginning of a trend
NBA teams coming off back-to-back wins in which they scored 130+ points in each outing have gone 71-53 SU and 66-56-2 ATS (54.1%) in the follow-up contest since 2018, including 24-17 ATS as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-2 vs BOS)

Close wins haven’t provided momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 259-135 SU but just 170-212-12 ATS (44.5%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (-5.5 at POR)

Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 278-218 SU but 217-265-14 ATS (45%) over the last six seasons. The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 38-66 ATS.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-2 vs BOS), BROOKLYN (+9 vs HOU)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3-point field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 269-278 SU and 243-297-7 ATS (45%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-2 vs BOS), TORONTO (+4 vs NYK)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3-point field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going 295-274 SU but 254-298-15 ATS (46%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (+2 at CLE), CLEVELAND (-2 vs BOS)

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 149-169 SU and 143-166-9 ATS (46.3%) in that next game over the last six seasons.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (+2 at CLE)

Unusual defensive performances
Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3-point field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 180-68 SU and  133-112-3 ATS (54.3%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-2.5 vs DAL)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 66-16 SU and 47-33-2 ATS (58.8%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (*if they become favorites in this line range, -5.5 currently*)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PORTLAND +5.5 (+3.7)
2. TORONTO +4.5 (+1.8)
3. CHICAGO +3.5 (+1.3)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLEVELAND -1 (+2.2)
2. LA CLIPPERS -8.5 (+0.1)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PORTLAND +5.5 (+2.7)
2. BROOKLYN +9.5 (+1.5)
3. TORONTO +4.5 (+1.2)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA CLIPPERS -8.5 (+2.8)
2. CLEVELAND -1 (+1.3)
3. PHILADELPHIA -3 (+0.8)

Today’s Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. HOU-BKN OVER 211 (+2.4)
2. BOS-CLE OVER 238 (+0.6)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LAL-LAC UNDER 221 (-4.1)
2. IND-POR UNDER 234 (-1.8)
3. MIA-CHI UNDER 228.5 (-1.8)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PORTLAND +5.5 (+2.0)
2. TORONTO +4.5 (+1.9)
3. DALLAS +3 (+1.7)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLEVELAND -1 (+1.2)
2. LA CLIPPERS -8.5 (+0.7)

Today’s Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOS-CLE OVER 238 (+0.5)
2. IND-POR OVER 234 (+0.2)Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LAL-LAC UNDER 221 (-5.4)
2. HOU-BKN UNDER 211 (-3.6)
3. DAL-PHI UNDER 226.5 (-2.8)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(521) BOSTON at (522) CLEVELAND
* CLEVELAND is 10-3-1 ATS versus Boston since 2022
Trend Match: PLAY CLEVELAND ATS

(523) DALLAS at (524) PHILADELPHIA
* UNDER is 8-1 in the last nine of DAL-PHI series
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(525) HOUSTON at (526) BROOKLYN
* UNDER the total is 9-2 in the last 11 of HOU-BKN non-conference series
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(533) INDIANA at (534) PORTLAND
* UNDER the total is 12-3 in the last 15 games between IND and POR
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total

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