The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Tuesday, January 28, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* PHILADELPHIA has covered six straight ATS when hosting the Los Angeles Lakers
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+3.5 vs LAL)

* MILWAUKEE is on a 13-1 Under the total run when playing on the back end of an A2A b2b scheduling scenario
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-POR (o/u at 229)

* HOUSTON is 12-30 SU and 15-27 ATS in its last 42 3rd Straight Road games
Trend Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-6 at ATL)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 AM ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results: 

–  Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
–  Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
–  Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
–  Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA LAKERS, HOUSTON, MILWAUKEE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved on these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA LAKERS, HOUSTON, MILWAUKEE

Here are some more specific money line angles:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1002-470 over the last 2+ seasons but for -214.88 units and an ROI of -14.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 746-483 but for +3.48 units and an ROI of +0.2%. This 14.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Match (FADE): HOME TEAMS – GOLDEN STATE ML

These last three systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest and most frequent angles I have uncovered is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January 2023.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-ATL

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (OVER or UNDER) of 57% or less have gone 282-242 (53.8%) for +15.8 units and an ROI of +3% since January 2023.
System Match (PLAY OVER): MIL-POR

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY OVER): LAL-PHI

The following are 40 of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 144-98 SU but 105-134-3 ATS (43.9%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last four seasons.
1/28: FADE PHILADELPHIA vs. LA Lakers
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+3.5 vs. LAL)

* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 58-42 SU but 42-58 ATS (42%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Road in 4 Days game over the last four seasons.
1/28: FADE PHILADELPHIA vs. LA Lakers
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+3.5 vs. LAL)

* Home teams playing on 2 Days Rest are 33-11 SU and 25-18-1 ATS (58.1%) hosting teams playing in an H2A b2b game over the last three seasons.
1/28: GOLDEN STATE vs. Utah
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (-12.5 vs. UTA)

* Over the total was 90-73 (55.2%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on an A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4th in 6 Days game.
1/28: OVER the total in MILWAUKEE-PORTLAND
System Match (PLAY OVER): MIL-POR (o/u at 229)

* OVER the total was 34-22 (60.7%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on 2 Days Rest and the road team was playing a 3rd Road in 4 Days game.
1/28: OVER the total in PHILADELPHIA-LA LAKERS
System Match (PLAY OVER): LAL-PHI (o/u at 216.5)

* HOUSTON is 12-30 SU and 15-27 ATS in its last 42 3rd Straight Road games
1/28: FADE HOUSTON at Atlanta
Trend Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-6 at ATL)

* LA LAKERS are on a 16-30 SU and 16-29-1 ATS skid in its last 46 playing a 3rd in 4 days game
1/28: FADE LA LAKERS at Philadelphia
Trend Match (FADE): LA LAKERS (-3.5 at PHI)

* PORTLAND is 27-67 SU and 34-60 ATS since 2020-21 when playing at home on One Day Rest
1/28: FADE PORTLAND vs. Milwaukee
Trend Match (FADE): PORTLAND (+5.5 vs. MIL)

* ATLANTA is 46-25 OVER the total since 2022 when playing a 4th in 6 Days game
1/28: OVER the total in ATLANTA-HOUSTON
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-ATL (o/u at 227)

* HOUSTON is on a 36-15 Over the total surge when playing on the road in a 3rd in 4 Days scheduling scenario
1/28: OVER the total in HOUSTON-ATLANTA
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-ATL (o/u at 227)

* LA LAKERS are on a 14-5 Over the total run when playing on the back end of an A2A b2b scheduling scenario
1/28: OVER the total in LA LAKERS-PHILADELPHIA
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAL-PHI (o/u at 216.5)

* MILWAUKEE is on a 13-1 Under the total run when playing on the back end of an A2A b2b scheduling scenario
1/28: UNDER the total in MILWAUKEE-PORTLAND
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-POR (o/u at 229)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five different betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 96-80 (54.5%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 184-157 (54%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 251-193 (56.5%).
System Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-GSW (o/u at 229.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

NO QUALIFYING EXTREME STATS SYSTEMS TODAY

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 70-80 SU but 83-65-3 ATS (56.1%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+6.5 vs. HOU)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis). 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: PHILADELPHIA +3.5 (+1.0)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MILWAUKEE -5.5 (+1.4)
2. GOLDEN STATE -12.5 (+0.6)
3. HOUSTON -6 (+0.4)

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: PHILADELPHIA +3.5 (+2.8)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match:
1. MILWAUKEE -5.5 (+2.8)
2. GOLDEN STATE -12.5 (+1.6)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
LAL-PHI OVER 216.5 (+1.6)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. HOU-ATL UNDER 227 (-1.0)
2. MIL-POR UNDER 229 (-0.4)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:|
Ratings Matches:
1. ATLANTA +6 (+2.0)
2. PHILADELPHIA +3.5 (+1.0)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MILWAUKEE -5.5 (+3.9)
2. GOLDEN STATE -12.5 (+0.6)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIL-POR OVER 229 (+4.1)
2. LAL-PHI OVER 216.5 (+2.4)
3. UTA-GSW OVER 229.5 (+1.5)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: HOU-ATL UNDER 227 (-1.2)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(535) OKLAHOMA (561) LA LAKERS at (562) PHILADELPHIA
* PHILADELPHIA has covered six straight ATS when hosting LAL
Trend Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA ATS

(563) MILWAUKEE at (564) PORTLAND
* ROAD TEAMS are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 of the MIL-POR non-conference series
Trend Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE ATS

(567) HOUSTON at (568) ATLANTA
* UNDER the total is 7-2 in the last nine games between HOU and ATL at Atlanta
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR