The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Tuesday, March 11, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AI’s Takes of the Day

Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting January 30th: 42-33-1 (56%). Here are today’s results: 

WSH-DET UNDER 236.5
Three DK Betting Splits systems regarding totals, both Makinen ratings projections and recent h2h trend all point to the UNDER

BROOKLYN (+18.5 at CLE)
Three DK Betting Splits systems favor BKN, three streak systems fade CLE and recent h2h trend favors BKN

NEW ORLEANS (+7.5 vs LAC)
Extreme stat system #7 fades LAC and massive h2h trend favors NOP

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* New Orleans  is 14-2 ATS in the last 16 games versus LAC
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+7.5 vs LAC)

* Over the total has converted in nine straight games when Milwaukee visits rival Indiana
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIL-IND (o/u at 234.5)

* Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 57-78-1 ATS (42.2%) in the next game, including 26-40 ATS (39.4%) on the road over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE ATS): CLEVELAND (-18.5 vs BKN)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results: 

–  Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
–  Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
–  Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
–  Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BROOKLYN, MILWAUKEE, LA CLIPPERS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, BROOKLYN

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference & non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last 2+ seasons, they are just 105-120 ATS, good for 46.7%. This is over a 5% drop-off compared to the overall majority figures.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1,002-470 over the last 2+ seasons but for -214.88 units and an ROI of -14.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 746-483 but for +3.48 units and an ROI of +0.2%. This 14.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – DETROIT ML, CLEVELAND ML

These last three systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have uncovered is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. Most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number has favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January 2023.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): WSH-DET

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 282-242 (53.8%) for +15.8 units and an ROI of +3% since January 2023.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): WSH-DET

DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 136-102 (57.1%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): WSH-DET

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Hosts playing in a A2H b2b game scenario are 31-38 SU and 26-42-1 ATS (38.2%) since the start of last season hosting teams playing on One Day Rest.
3/11: FADE INDIANA vs. Milwaukee
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (+2 vs MIL)

* Over the total was 60-52 (53.6%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
3/11: Over the total in CLEVELAND-BROOKLYN
System Match (PLAY OVER): BKN-CLE (o/u at 228.5)

* Over the total is 43-26 (62.3%) since the start of last season when the home team was on A2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
3/11: Over the total in INDIANA-MILWAUKEE
System Match (PLAY OVER): MIL-IND (o/u at 234.5)

* MILWAUKEE is on a 49-45 SU and 36-56-2 ATS skid in the last 94 when playing on standard One Day Rest
3/11: FADE MILWAUKEE at Indiana
Trend Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-2 at IND)

* WASHINGTON is on 11-13 SU but 15-8 ATS run on the road in the 3rd in 4 Days game scenario
3/11: WASHINGTON at Detroit
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+14.5 at DET)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 104-86 (54.7%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 204-166 (55.1%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, OVER the total was 264-203 (56.5%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): WSH-DET (o/u at 236.5), BKN-CLE (o/u at 228.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

Close wins haven’t provided momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 269-140 SU but just 176-220-13 ATS (44.4%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS (-7.5 at NOP)

Divisional upsets can create urgency
NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 97-60 SU and 93-62-2 ATS (60%) in that follow-up try over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+2 vs MIL)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 114-20 SU BUT 57-74-4 ATS (43.5%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE ATS): CLEVELAND (-18.5 vs BKN)

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play-against teams in general, going 241-289-3 ATS (45.5%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 30-131 SU and 70-86-5 ATS (44.9%).
System Match (FADE ATS): CLEVELAND (-18.5 vs BKN)

NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 57-78-1 ATS (42.2%) in the next game, including 26-40 ATS (39.4%) on the road over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE ATS): CLEVELAND (-18.5 vs BKN)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW ORLEANS +7.5 (+0.6)
2 (tie). INDIANA +2 (+0.1)
BROOKLYN +18.5 (+0.1)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: DETROIT -14.5 (+0.9)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BROOKLYN +18.5 (+1.1)
2. NEW ORLEANS +7.5 (+0.7)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DETROIT -14.5 (+1.5)
2. MILWAUKEE -2 (+1.1)

Today’s Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BKN-CLE OVER 228 (+1.3)
2. LAC-NOP OVER 222.5 (+1.0)

Today’s Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. WSH-DET UNDER 236.5 (-2.9)
2. MIL-IND UNDER 234.5 (-2.6)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BROOKLYN +18.5 (+1.0)
2. INDIANA +2 (+0.1)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA CLIPPERS -7.5 (+1.8)
2. DETROIT -14.5 (+0.2)

Today’s Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BKN-CLE OVER 228 (+2.6)
2. LAC-NOP OVER 222.5 (+1.6)

Today’s Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. WSH-DET UNDER 236.5 (-3.7)
2. MIL-IND UNDER 234.5 (-3.3)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(557) MILWAUKEE at (558) INDIANA
* Over the total has converted in nine straight games when MIL visits rival IND
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total

(559) WASHINGTON at (560) DETROIT
* Under the total is 12-4 in the last 16 of WSH-DET series
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total

* ROAD TEAMS have won five straight ATS in series
Trend Match: PLAY WASHINGTON ATS

(561) BROOKLYN at (562) CLEVELAND
* ROAD TEAMS have won five straight ATS in BKN-CLE series
Trend Match: PLAY BROOKLYN ATS

(563) LA CLIPPERS at (564) NEW ORLEANS
* NEW ORLEANS is 14-2 ATS in the last 16 games versus LAC
Trend Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS ATS

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