The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Tuesday, March 4, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AI’s Take of the Day

Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting 1/30: 34-28. Here are today’s results:

— PHILADELPHIA (+14 at MIN)
Team strength system #4 fades MIN, plus recent h2h trend favors PHI

— LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS (-2.5 at PHX)
Multiple Makinen ratings projections have LAC underpriced, plus extreme stats system #9 favors LAC

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* Favorites are 20-4-2 ATS in the last 26 of Brooklyn-San Antonio non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-4 vs BKN)

* Houston is on a 37-17 Over the total surge when playing on the road in a 3rd in 4 Days scheduling scenario
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-IND (o/u at 232.5)

* Under the total is 10-2 in the last 12 games when Toronto visits Orlando
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TOR-ORL (o/u at 208)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results: 

– Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
– Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
– Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 129-109 ATS (54.2%) over the last 2+ seasons. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly two-thirds of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE, CLEVELAND, LA CLIPPERS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 70-104 ATS (40.2%), well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Match (FADE): LA LAKERS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved on these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, NEW YORK, MINNESOTA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, MILWAUKEE, LA LAKERS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference & non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last 2+ seasons, they are just 105-120 ATS, good for 46.7%. This is over a 5% drop-off compared to the overall majority figures.
System Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January ’23. These majority handle groups are 130-26 SU but for -40.1 units, a ROI of -25.7%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND ML

These last three systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): GSW-NYK, MIL-ATL, CLE-CHI, LAC-PHX, NOP-LAL

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 282-242 (53.8%) for +15.8 units and an ROI of +3% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – GSW-NYK
UNDER – MIL-ATL, NOP-LAL

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-ORL

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long! 

* OVER the total was 29-19 (60.4%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on an A2H b2b and the road team was playing on 2 Days Rest.
3/4: Over the total in ATLANTA-MILWAUKEE
System Match (PLAY OVER): MIL-ATL (o/u at 242)

* Over the total was 56-52 (51.9%) over last two seasons when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
3/4: Over the total in MINNESOTA-PHILADELPHIA
System Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-MIN (o/u at 222)

* PHOENIX is 22-18 SU but 13-25-2 ATS in its last 40 3rd Straight Home games
3/4: FADE PHOENIX vs. LA Clippers
Trend Match (FADE): PHOENIX (+2.5 vs LAC)

* HOUSTON is on a 37-17 Over the total surge when playing on the road in a 3rd in 4Days scheduling scenario
3/4: Over the total in HOUSTON-INDIANA
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-IND (o/u at 232.5)

* TORONTO is 22-13 Over the total since 2022 when playing a 3rd Straight Road game
3/4: Over the total in TORONTO-ORLANDO
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-ORL (o/u at 208)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 146-51 SU and 118-78-1 ATS (60.2%) run.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 vs HOU) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 235-44 SU but just 129-144-6 ATS (47.3%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-12.5 at CHA)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 102-83 (55.1%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 199-165 (54.7%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 262-201 (56.6%).
System Match (PLAY OVER): GSW-CHA (o/u at 228.5) 

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off of a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 147-89 SU but 106-126-4 ATS (45.7%) in the follow-up contest over the last six seasons. Included among this is an 89-112 ATS mark when not playing the next day.
System Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO (-4 vs BKN)

Divisional upsets can create urgency
NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 97-59 SU and 93-61-2 ATS (60.4%) in that follow-up try over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (-2.5 at PHX)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 297-251 (54.2%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): TOR-ORL (o/u at 208), MIL-ATL (o/u at 242), CLE-CHI (o/u at 243.5), BKN-SAS (o/u at 227.5)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3-point field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going 308-287 SU but 267-309-17 ATS (46.4%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-14 vs PHI)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 110-20 SU but 56-71-4 ATS (44.1%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE): LA LAKERS (*if they become double-digit favorites vs NOP, -8.5 currently*)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1 (tie). ATLANTA +7 (+2.5)
BROOKLYN +4 (+2.5)
3. GOLDEN STATE +4.5 (+1.8)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MINNESOTA -14 (+1.9)
2. INDIANA -3.5 (+0.3)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ATLANTA +7 (+2.5)
2. BROOKLYN +4 (+2.4)
3 (tie). HOUSTON +3.5 (+1.3)
CHICAGO +12.5 (+1.3)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA CLIPPERS -3 (+0.2)
2. MINNESOTA -14 (+0.1)

Today’s Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GSW-NYK OVER 229 (+5.0)
2. PHI-MIN OVER 222 (+0.8)

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. HOU-IND UNDER 232.5 (-2.0)
2. CLE-CHI UNDER 243.5 (-1.8)
3. BKN-SAS UNDER 227.5 (-1.5)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ATLANTA +7 (+2.7)
2 (tie). GOLDEN STATE +4.5 (+2.3)
BROOKLYN +4 (+2.3)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MINNESOTA -14 (+1.7)
2. INDIANA -3.5 (+1.0)
3 (tie). CLEVELAND -12.5 (+0.3)
LA CLIPPERS -3 (+0.3)

Today’s Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GSW-NYK OVER 229 (+4.7)
2. PHI-MIN OVER 222 (+2.7)

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIL-ATL UNDER 242 (-2.0)
2. HOU-IND UNDER 232.5 (-1.8)
3. NOP-LAL UNDER 229 (-1.7)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(517) TORONTO at (518) ORLANDO
* UNDER the total is 10-2 in the last 12 of TOR-ORL series at Orlando
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(519) GOLDEN STATE at (520) NEW YORK
* ROAD TEAMS are 10-3 ATS in the last 13 of GSW-NYK non-conference series
Trend Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE ATS

(523) CLEVELAND at (524) CHICAGO
* HOME TEAMS are 12-4 ATS in the last 16 of CLE-CHI divisional rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY CHICAGO ATS

(525) PHILADELPHIA at (526) MINNESOTA
* PHILADELPHIA is 15-4 ATS in the last 19 games versus MIN
Trend Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA ATS

* UNDER the total is 11-2 in the last 13 of PHI-MIN series at Minnesota
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(527) BROOKLYN at (528) SAN ANTONIO
* FAVORITES are 20-4-2 ATS in the last 26 of BKN-SAS non-conference series
Trend Match: PLAY SAN ANTONIO ATS

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