The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Tuesday, November 26, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* Home teams playing a 3rd game in 8+ days are 28-9 SU and 27-8-2 ATS (77.1%) hosting teams playing on 2 Days Rest over the last four seasons.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHOENIX (-2.5 vs LAL), MIAMI (-2.5 vs MIL)

* In games between teams with 40% or less winning percentages and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 96-64 SU and 95-62-3 ATS (60.5%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (-4.5 at WSH)

* NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3-point field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 158-58 SU and 120-93-3 ATS (56.3%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-4 vs HOU)

* Over the total is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings between Milwaukee and Miami but did lose the last time.
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total in MIL-MIA (o/u at 223)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic NBA betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season and a half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO, MILWAUKEE, LA LAKERS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season and a half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO, MILWAUKEE

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too: 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 782-357 over the last 1 1/2 seasons but for -131.98 units and an ROI of -11.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 571-358 but for +23.75 units and an ROI of +2.6%. This 14.2% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Match (FADE): HOME TEAMS — MINNESOTA ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority money line handle was on a team in a divisional matchup last season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on handle for +30 units, an ROI of 11.5%. This ROI is a notable improvement over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY): LA LAKERS ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for a money line wager over the last 1 1/2 season, this majority group has done well, going 86-138 but for +19.67 units and an ROI of +8.8%. It takes patience to wager something that wins only 38% of the time, but the reward is there.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE ML, LA LAKERS ML

These last two NBA betting trend systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have uncovered is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. Most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year and a half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): CHI-WSH

DK NBA Betting Splits system #16: Majority Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising the total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 106-71 (59.9%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): CHI-WSH

Schedule situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following NBA betting trends are an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Teams playing a 3rd game in 8+ Days are 63-39 SU and 63-37-2 ATS (63%) versus teams playing a team on 2 Days Rest over the last four seasons.
11/26: PHOENIX vs. LA Lakers
System Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (-2.5 vs LAL)

11/26: MIAMI vs. Milwaukee
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-2.5 vs MIL)

* Home teams playing a 3rd game in 8+ Days are 28-9 SU and 27-8-2 ATS (77.1%) hosting teams playing on 2 Days Rest over the last four seasons.
11/26: PHOENIX vs. LA Lakers
System Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (-2.5 vs LAL)

11/26: MIAMI vs. Milwaukee
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-2.5 vs MIL)

* Home teams playing in a 3rd game in 8+ Days are 13-1 SU and 12-2 ATS (85.7%) hosting teams playing on 2 Days Rest over the last three seasons.
11/26: PHOENIX vs. LA Lakers
System Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (-2.5 vs LAL)

11/26: MIAMI vs. Milwaukee
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-2.5 vs MIL)

* Under the total was 70-43 (61.9%) over the last four seasons when one team was on 2 Days Rest and the opponent was playing a 3rd game in 8+ Days.
11/26: UNDER the total in LA LAKERS-PHOENIX
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LAL-PHX (o/u at 234.5)

11/26: UNDER the total in MILWAUKEE-MIAMI
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-MIA (o/u at 223)

The following are 40 of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

* PHOENIX is 18-14 SU but 10-21-1 ATS in its last 32 3rd Straight Home games
11/26: FADE PHOENIX vs. LA Lakers
System Match (FADE): PHOENIX (-2.5 vs LAL)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 96-64 SU and 95-62-3 ATS (60.5%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (-4.5 at WSH)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trends search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
Teams off of a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 132-80 SU but 93-115-4 ATS (44.7%) in the follow-up game over the last six seasons. This includes a 79-102 ATS mark when not playing the next day.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO (-4.5 at WSH), PHOENIX (-2.5 vs LAL)

Rout wins are a warning sign for the next game for hosts
Home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 257-201 SU but 198-248-12 ATS (44.4%) over the last six seasons. The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 36-63 ATS.
System Match (FADE): UTAH (+2.5 vs SAS)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3-point field goal attempts in a game have responded the next time out by going just 242-255 SU and 221-270-6 ATS (45%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): UTAH (+2.5 vs SAS)

Unusual defensive performances
Alternatively to the system above, teams that have allowed 20 or more 3-point field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 158-58 SU and 120-93-3 ATS (56.3%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-4 vs HOU)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 3.3% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (170-188 ATS, 47.5%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (227-220 ATS, 50.8%) over the last four seasons.
System Matches: FADE — WASHINGTON (+4.5 vs CHI)
SLIGHT PLAY — PHOENIX (-2.5 vs LAL)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. UTAH +2.5 (+1.7)
2(tie). MILWAUKEE +2.5 (+1.0)
HOUSTON +3.5 (+1.0)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match:
PHOENIX -2.5 (+0.8)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. HOUSTON +3.5 (+4.5)
2. MILWAUKEE +2.5 (+0.1)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAN ANTONIO -2.5 (+2.2)
2. PHOENIX -2.5 (+0.9)
3. CHICAGO -5 (+0.2)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LAL-PHX OVER 234.5 (+2.2)
2. MIL-MIA OVER 223 (+1.5)
3. CHI-WSH OVER 245 (+0.7)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match:
HOU-MIN UNDER 220 (-0.3)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MILWAUKEE +2.5 (+3.4)
2. WASHINGTON +5 (+2.1)
3. UTAH +2.5 (+0.8)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHOENIX -2.5 (+2.7)
2. MINNESOTA -3.5 (+1.2)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LAL-PHX OVER 234.5 (+4.0)
2. SAS-UTA OVER 226 (+0.9)
3. CHI-WSH OVER 245 (+0.8)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. HOU-MIN UNDER 220 (-3.0)
2. MIL-MIA UNDER 223 (-1.1)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(533) MILWAUKEE at (534) MIAMI
* OVER the total is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings between MIL and MIA but did lose the last time
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(535) HOUSTON at (536) MINNESOTA
* MINNESOTA has won four of the last five ATS at home versus Houston
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS

(537) SAN ANTONIO at (538) UTAH
* ROAD TEAMS are 6-2 ATS in the last eight of the series
System Match: PLAY SAN ANTONIO ATS

(539) LA LAKERS at (540) PHOENIX
* UNDER the total is 4-1 in the last five of LAL-PHX series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

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