Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA Games of Tuesday, October 22. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Defending NBA champions are 4-1 ATS in their last five season openers
System Match: PLAY BOSTON (-5.5 vs NYK)
* OVER the total is 4-1 in the last five games of this series in Boston
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 222.5)
* ROAD TEAMS are 6-1 ATS in the last seven of the series
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-1 at LAL)
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season and a half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-1 at LAL)
Strategies using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. We have built these pages utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed since 2023. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season and a half. This has been a very consistent system and fairly successful for its simplicity. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-1 at LAL)
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season and a half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-1 at LAL)
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles, too:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on moneyline wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 782-357 over the last 1 1/2 seasons but for -131.98 units and an ROI of -11.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 571-358 but for +23.75 units and an ROI of +2.6%. This 14.2% disparity warrants fading moneyline majorities on home teams and backing moneyline majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Match: PLAY – MINNESOTA ML
FADE – BOSTON ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority moneyline handle was on a team in a divisional matchup last season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on handle for +30 units, an ROI of 11.5%. This ROI is a notable improvement over all other matchups.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON ML
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.
We will track 50 top scheduling situations all season long.
* Defending NBA champions are 4-1 ATS in their last five season openers
System Match: PLAY BOSTON (-5.5 vs NYK)
Top team-specific scheduling situation trends
The following are 40 of the top team-specific scheduling trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons.
* LA LAKERS are 0-7 in their last seven season-opening games
System Match: FADE LA LAKERS (+1 vs MIN)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five betting systems for teams based on some various team strength indicator or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.
NO QUALIFYING TEAM STRENGTH SYSTEMS YET THIS SEASON
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS YET THIS SEASON
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: NEW YORK +5.5 (+2.5)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: MINNESOTA -1 (+0.4)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA LAKERS +1 (+0.7), 2. NEW YORK +5.5 (+0.5)
Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NYK-BOS UNDER 222.5 (-1.2), 2. MIN-LAL UNDER 221 (-0.6)
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: NEW YORK +5.5 (+2.3)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: MINNESOTA -1 (+0.3)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: MIN-LAL OVER 221 (+1.0)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: NYK-BOS UNDER 222.5 (-0.9)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:
(501) NEW YORK at (502) BOSTON
* OVER the total is 4-1 in the last five games of the series in Boston
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 222.5)
(503) MINNESOTA at (504) LA LAKERS
* ROAD TEAMS are 6-1 ATS in the last seven of the series
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-1 at LAL)
