The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Wednesday, April 9, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AI’s Takes of the Day

Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting January 30th: 74-62-3 (54.4%). Here are today’s results: 

– DALLAS (+4 vs. LAL)
Scheduling situation favors DAL, Makinen effective strength ratings projection, and recent head-to-head trend all favor DAL + scheduling trend and extreme stat system #3 fades LAL 

– HOUSTON (+8.5 at LAC)
Extreme stat system #15, two Makinen ratings projections, and recent head-to-head trend all favor HOU 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* Teams having lost their last four games or more have been fantastic in the rare role of playing as road favorites, going 40-13 SU and 35-16-2 ATS (68.6%) in their last 53 tries.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-1.5 at WSH), DENVER (-3.5 at SAC) 

* RAPTORS are on runs of 8-0 SU and 5-1 ATS hosting Hornets
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-9 vs. CHA) 

* Hosts playing in an A2H b2b game scenario are 36-42 SU and 31-45-2 ATS (40.8%) since the start of last season hosting teams playing on One Day Rest.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO (+1 vs. MIA), WASHINGTON (+1.5 vs. PHI)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:15 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a four-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 129-109 ATS (54.2%) over the last 2+ seasons. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, the handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, LA LAKERS, PORTLAND, DENVER 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 66-50 ATS record (56.9%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 116 games was only about 4.0% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO, PHOENIX

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, PHOENIX, LA CLIPPERS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, TORONTO, LA LAKERS, CHICAGO, DENVER, GOLDEN STATE, LA CLIPPERS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last 2+ seasons, they are just 105-120 ATS, good for 46.7%. This is over a 5% drop off compared to the overall majority figures.
System Matches (FADE): PORTLAND 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1002-470 over the last 2+ seasons but for -214.88 units and an ROI of -14.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 746-483 but for +3.48 units and an ROI of +0.2%. This 14.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – TORONTO ML, CHICAGO ML, GOLDEN STATE ML 

These last three systems involve totals. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number has favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): PHI-WSH, SAS-GSW, OKC-PHX 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: There has been some decent success for the number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (OVER or UNDER) of 57% or less have gone 282-242 (53.8%) for +15.8 units and an ROI of +3% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – POR-UTA
UNDER – PHI-WSH, SAS-GSW 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – BOS-ORL, HOU-LAC 

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long! 

* Teams on 3+DaysRest are 65-43 SU and 69-38-1 ATS (64.5%) versus teams playing a 3rd Game in 4 Days over the last three seasons.
* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest were 38-18 SU and 36-18-2 ATS (66.7%) hosting teams playing a 4th in 6 Days game last season.
* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest are 49-28 SU and 44-30-3 ATS (59.5%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
* Home teams playing on 3+ Day Rest were 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS (88.9%) over the last two seasons hosting teams playing a 3rd Road in 4 Days game.
4/9: DALLAS vs. LA Lakers
Systems Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+3.5 vs. LAL) 

* LA LAKERS are on a 24-32 SU and 24-31-1 ATS skid in the last 56 playing a 3rd in 4 days game
4/9: FADE LA LAKERS at Dallas
Trend Match (FADE): LA LAKERS (-3.5 at DAL) 

* LA LAKERS are on a 16-6 Over the total run when playing on the back end of an A2A b2b scheduling scenario
4/9: Over the total in LA LAKERS-DALLAS
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAL-DAL (o/u at 229) 

* Home teams playing on 2 Days Rest are 37-12 SU and 28-20-1 ATS (58.3%) hosting teams playing in an H2A b2b game over the last three seasons.
4/9: TORONTO vs. Charlotte
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-9 vs. CHA)

* Hosts playing in an A2H b2b game scenario are 36-42 SU and 31-45-2 ATS (40.8%) since the start of last season hosting teams playing on One Day Rest.
4/9: Fade CHICAGO vs. Miami
4/9: Fade WASHINGTON vs. Philadelphia
System Match (FADE ALL): CHICAGO (+1 vs. MIA), WASHINGTON (+1.5 vs. PHI) 

* Over the total is 45-33 (57.7%) since the start of last season when the home team was on A2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
4/9: Over the total in CHICAGO-MIAMI
4/9: Over the total in WASHINGTON-PHILADELPHIA
System Match (PLAY OVER ALL): MIA-CHI (o/u at 226.5), PHI-WSH (o/u at 226)

* PHILADELPHIA is an impressive 41-40 SU and 46-33-2 ATS in its last 81 road games when playing on standard One Day Rest
4/9: PHILADELPHIA at Washington
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-1.5 at WSH) 

* Over the total was 104-90 (53.6%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on an A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4th in 6 Days game.
4/9: Over the total in SAN ANTONIO-GOLDEN STATE
System Match (PLAY OVER): SAS-GSW (o/u at 231.5)

* Over the total was 49-37 (57%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on head-to-head b2b and the road team was playing an A2A b2b game.
4/9: Over the total in ORLANDO-BOSTON
System Match (PLAY OVER): BOS-ORL (o/u at 206.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 114-79 SU and 116-74-3 ATS (61.1%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-1.5 at WSH) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 76-30 SU and 65-40-1 ATS (61.9%).
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-1.5 at WSH) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 109-90 (54.8%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 221-174 (55.9%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 280-216 (56.5%).
System Match (PLAY OVER): SAS-GSW (o/u at 231.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 249-133 SU but 176-198-8 ATS (47.1%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is 33-35-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 at PHX) 

Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off of a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 154-93 SU but 112-131-4 ATS (46.1%) in the follow-up contest over the last six seasons. Included among this is a 93-115 ATS mark when not playing the next day.
System Match (FADE): LA LAKERS (-4 at DAL) 

Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 277-145 SU but just 179-230-13 ATS (43.8%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (+7 at ORL)

Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for the hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 300-230 SU but 238-277-15 ATS (46.2%) over the last six seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 42-67-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-16.5 vs. SAS)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 309-265 (53.8%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LAL-DAL (o/u at 229)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going 334-301 SU but 287-328-18 ATS (46.7%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): UTAH (+6.5 vs. POR) 

Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 181-152 SU and 185-138-10 ATS (57.3%) run.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (+8.5 at LAC)

Unusual defensive performances
Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 197-76 SU and 144-126-3 ATS (53.3%) over the last 4 seasons.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (*if they become favored vs MIA, +1 currently) 

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #2:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been fantastic in rare role of playing as road favorites, going 40-13 SU and 35-16-2 ATS (68.6%) in their last 53 tries.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-1.5 at WSH), DENVER (-3.5 at SAC) 

NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 125-23 SU but 63-82-3 ATS (43.4%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS (*if they fall become double-digit favorites vs HOU, -8.5 currently) 

NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on an 82-90 SU but 97-73-3 ATS (57.1%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-3.5 at SAC) 

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 254-306-4 ATS (45.4%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 30-136 SU and 70-90-6 ATS (43.8%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-1.5 at WSH), PHOENIX (+9.5 vs. OKC), UTAH (+6.5 vs. POR)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SACRAMENTO +4 (+4.4)
2. WASHINGTON +1.5 (+1.7)
3. HOUSTON +8 (+1.6) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TORONTO -9 (+1.2)
2. ORLANDO -6 (+0.7)
3. PORTLAND -6.5 (+0.3) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DALLAS +4 (+8.7)
2. SAN ANTONIO +16.5 (+7.9)
3. HOUSTON +8 (+4.0) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1(tie). OKLAHOMA CITY -9.5 (+1.5)
2. ORLANDO -6 (+0.1) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OKC-PHX OVER 226.5 (+2.1)
2. PHI-WSH OVER 226 (+1.3)
3. POR-UTA OVER 229.5 (+0.8)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LAL-DAL UNDER 229 (-3.6)
2. HOU-LAC UNDER 218.5 (-2.4)
3. DEN-SAC UNDER 233.5 (-1.2) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAN ANTONIO +16.5 (+7.7)
2. SACRAMENTO +4 (+5.2)
3. WASHINGTON +1.5 (+4.0) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ORLANDO -6 (+1.5)
2. TORONTO -9 (+0.7)
3. MIAMI -1 (+0.4) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OKC-PHX OVER 226.5 (+2.9)
2. POR-UTA OVER 229.5 (+1.8)
3. HOU-LAC OVER 218.5 (+1.5) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LAL-DAL UNDER 229 (-4.6)
2. MIA-CHI UNDER 226.5 (-2.3)
3. DEN-SAC UNDER 233.5 (-1.8)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(559) BOSTON at (560) ORLANDO
* Home teams are 6-0 SU and ATS in the last six of the BOS-ORL head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY ORLANDO ATS 

(561) CHARLOTTE at (562) TORONTO
* TORONTO is on runs of 8-0 SU and 5-1 ATS hosting CHA
Trend Match: PLAY TORONTO 

(563) LA LAKERS at (564) DALLAS
* DALLAS is 10-4 SU and 12-2 ATS in the last 14 head-to-head games versus LAL
Trend Match: PLAY DALLAS 

(565) MIAMI at (566) CHICAGO
* Underdogs are 7-4 SU and 8-3 ATS in the last 11 of the MIA-CHI head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY CHICAGO 

(567) PORTLAND at (568) UTAH
* UTAH has covered five straight ATS in the last five head-to-head games versus divisional rival POR
Trend Match: PLAY UTAH ATS 

(569) DENVER at (570) SACRAMENTO
* Over the total is 7-2 in the last nine of the DEN-SAC head-to-head series at Sacramento
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total

(571) SAN ANTONIO at (572) GOLDEN STATE
* Road teams are 10-4 ATS in the last 14 of the SAS-GSW head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY SAN ANTONIO ATS 

(573) OKLAHOMA CITY at (574) PHOENIX
* Favorites are 7-2 SU and 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine of the OKC-PHX head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY ATS 

(575) HOUSTON at (576) LA CLIPPERS
* HOUSTON has covered six straight ATS in head-to-head matchups with LAC
Trend Match: PLAY HOUSTON ATS

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