The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Wednesday, December 11, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

*Home teams are 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in NBA Cup games the last two years
Trends Match (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK (-8 vs. ATL), HOUSTON (-2 vs. GSW) 

* Home teams playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game are 30-10 SU and 28-10-2 ATS (73.7%) hosting teams playing a 2 Days Rest game over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-2 vs. GSW) 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #16: Majority Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising the total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 106-71 (59.9%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-NYK (o/u at 237.5)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to u, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 94-75 ATS (55.6%). This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON 

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too: 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on the handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 782-357 over the last 1-1/2 seasons but for -131.98 units and an ROI of -11.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 571-358 but for +23.75 units and an ROI of +2.6%. This 14.2% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Match (FADE): HOME TEAMS – NEW YORK ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for a money line wager over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has done well, going 86-138 but for +19.67 units and a roi of +8.8%. It takes patience to wager something that wins only 38% of the time, but the reward is there.
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE ML 

These last three systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-NYK

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for the number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and a roi of +4.8% since January 2023.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-NYK

DK NBA Betting Splits system #16: Majority Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 106-71 (59.9%) since January ’23 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-NYK 

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following NBA betting trends are an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long! 

* Teams playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game are 66-40 SU and 65-39-2 ATS (62.5%) versus teams playing a 2 Days Rest game over the last four seasons.
12/11: HOUSTON vs. Golden State
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-2 vs. GSW)

* Home teams playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game are 30-10 SU and 28-10-2 ATS (73.7%) hosting teams playing a 2 Days Rest game over the last four seasons.
12/11: HOUSTON vs. Golden State
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-2 vs. GSW) 

* Under the total was 72-45 (61.5%) over the last four seasons when one team was on 2 Days Rest and the opponent was playing a 3rdin8+Days game.
12/11: Under the total in GOLDEN STATE-HOUSTON
System Match (PLAY UNDER): GSW-HOU (o/u at 223) 

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.

NO QUALIFYING EXTREME STATS SYSTEMS TODAY 

The following handicapping information encompasses the nine previous NBA Cup bracket games.

*Favorites are 6-3 SU and 5-4 ATS
*Home teams are 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS
Trends Match (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK (-8 vs. ATL), HOUSTON (-2 vs. GSW) 

*Under the total is 6-3
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER ALL): ATL-NYK (o/u at 237.5), GSW-HOU (o/u at 223) 

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: GOLDEN STATE +2 (+0.5) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GOLDEN STATE +2 (+1.0)
2. ATLANTA +8 (+0.8) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: GSW-HOU OVER 223 (+0.5) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: ATL-NYK UNDER 237.5 (-4.3) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GOLDEN STATE +2 (+1.3)
2. ATLANTA +8 (+0.3) 

Today’s Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ATL-NYK OVER 237.5 (+3.7)
2. GSW-HOU OVER 223 (+0.3) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(531) ATLANTA at (532) NEW YORK
* Over the total is 5-1 ATS in the ATL-NYK series since 2023
System Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(533) GOLDEN STATE at (534) HOUSTON
* GOLDEN STATE has covered seven of the last eight ATS versus Houston
System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE ATS

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