Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Wednesday, February 12, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AI’s Takes of the Day
Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. Here are today’s results:
– PHILADELPHIA (-3 at BKN)
Philadelphia good head-to-head recently vs BKN + road favorites who’ve lost last four games have performed well
– MIAMI (+14.5 at OKC)
Multiple extreme stats systems fade OKC + road teams have dominated head-to-head series recently
– CLE-TOR OVER 235
Scheduling situation favors Over + line is underpriced in multiple systems
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 95-58 SU and 91-60-2 ATS (60.3%) in that follow-up try over the last four seasons.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO (-12.5 vs. CHA), PHILADELPHIA (-3 at BKN)
* Hosts playing in an A2H b2b game scenario are 25-35 SU and 22-37-1 ATS (37.3%) since the start of last season hosting teams playing on One Day Rest.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW YORK (-8 vs. ATL), TORONTO (+14.5 vs. CLE)
* NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well in the next contest, going 145-98 SU and 139-97-7 ATS (58.9%) since ‘21.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-8.5 vs. SAS), CHICAGO (+6 v.s DET)
* NEW ORLEANS is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 games versus Sacramento (including 8-0 ATS in the last eight)
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+5 vs. SAC)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
– Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
– Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, CHARLOTTE, ATLANTA, CLEVELAND, PHILADELPHIA, DETROIT, SACRAMENTO, LA LAKERS, GOLDEN STATE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHARLOTTE, ATLANTA, GOLDEN STATE, LA CLIPPERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 70-104 ATS (40.2%), well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY, DENVER
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, OKLAHOMA CITY, MINNESOTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, ATLANTA, CLEVELAND, SACRAMENTO, HOUSTON, LA LAKERS, GOLDEN STATE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last 2+ seasons, they are just 105-120 ATS, good for 46.7%. This is over a 5% drop off compared to the overall majority figures.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, DETROIT, DENVER
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January 2023. These majority handle groups are 130-26 SU but for -40.1 units, an ROI of -25.7%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Matches (FADE ALL): INDIANA ML, CLEVELAND ML
These last four systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): ATL-NYK, PHI-BKN, DET-CHI, MEM-LAC
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 282-242 (53.8%) for +15.8 units and an ROI of +3% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – IND-WSH, MEM-LAC
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – CHA-ORL
UNDER – PHI-BKN
DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 136-102 (57.1%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): ATL-NYK, MEM-LAC
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Teams playing on 3rd Straight Home game were 82-41 SU and 73-45-5 ATS (61.9%) hosting teams playing an A2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
2/12: CHICAGO vs. Detroit
2/12: LA CLIPPERS vs. Memphis
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO (+6 vs. DET), LA CLIPPERS (-4.5 vs MEM)
* Host teams playing a 4th Straight Home are 38-21 SU and 39-19-1 ATS (67.2%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
2/12: LA CLIPPERS vs. Memphis
System Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (-4.5 vs. MEM)
* Home teams playing on 2 Days Rest are 34-12 SU and 26-19-1 ATS (57.8%) hosting teams playing in an H2A b2b game over the last three seasons.
2/12: HOUSTON vs. Phoenix
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-6.5 vs. PHX)
* Hosts playing in an A2H b2b game scenario are 25-35 SU and 22-37-1 ATS (37.3%) since the start of last season hosting teams playing on One Day Rest.
2/12: FADE NEW YORK vs. Atlanta
2/12: FADE TORONTO vs. Cleveland
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW YORK (-8 vs. ATL), TORONTO (+14.5 vs. CLE)
* Over the total was 42-33 (56%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing an A2A b2b game.
2/12: Over the total in CHICAGO-DETROIT
System Match (PLAY OVER): DET-CHI (o/u at 236.5)
* Over the total was 55-50 (52.4%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on OneDayRest and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
2/12: Over the total in BROOKLYN-PHILADELPHIA
2/12: Over the total in WASHINGTON-INDIANA
System Matches (PLAY OVER): IND-WSH (o/u at 242), PHI-BKN (o/u at 211.5)
* Over the total is 37-23 (61.7%) since the start of last season when the home team was on A2H b2b and the road team was playing a OneDayRest game.
2/12: Over the total in NEW YORK-ATLANTA
2/12: Over the total in TORONTO-CLEVELAND
System Matches (PLAY OVER): ATL-NYK (o/u at 241), CLE-TOR (o/u at 235)
* GOLDEN STATE is on an extended slide of 43-57 SU and 41-59 ATS when playing on the road on One Day Rest
2/12: Fade GOLDEN STATE at Dallas
Trend Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-6.5 at DAL)
* MILWAUKEE is on a 45-44 SU and 32-56-1 ATS skid in the last 89 when playing on standard One Day Rest
2/12: Fade MILWAUKEE at Minnesota
Trend Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+7 at MIN)
* ATLANTA is 47-28 OVER the total since 2022 when playing a 4th in 6 Days game
2/12: Over the total in ATLANTA-NEW YORK
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-NYK (o/u at 241)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 105-70 SU and 106-66-3 ATS (61.6%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-3 at BKN)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 227-43 SU but just 126-139-5 ATS (47.5%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-14 vs MIA)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the L4 seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 97-81 (54.5%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 194-161 (54.6%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 258-197 (56.7%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – IND-WSH (o/u at 242), CLE-TOR (o/u at 235), MIA-OKC (o/u at 220)
UNDER – CHA-ORL (o/u at 202), POR-DEN (o/u at 233)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.
135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 229-129 SU but 162-189-7 ATS (46.2%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is 32-33-1 ATS.
System Matches (FADE ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY (-14 vs. MIA), DENVER (-11.5 v.s POR)
Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
Since the start of the 2018-19 season, NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing, going 121-123 SU but 127-102-5 ATS (55.5%), including 90-54-1 ATS when installed as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (-10 at WSH)
Close wins haven’t provided momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 260-139 SU but just 170-217-12 ATS (43.9%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): SACRAMENTO (-5 at NOP)
Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 282-221 SU but 222-267-14 ATS (45.4%) over the last 6 seasons. The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 39-66 ATS.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-11.5 vs. POR)
Divisional upsets can create urgency
NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 95-58 SU and 91-60-2 ATS (60.3%) in that follow-up try over the last four seasons.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO (-12.5 vs. CHA), PHILADELPHIA (-3 at BKN)
Teams that win outright versus divisional rivals as double-digit underdogs have trended sharply Under the total in the next contest, going 59-37-1 (61.5%) in their last 97 tries.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-TOR (o/u at 235)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 285-249 (53.4%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): GSW-DAL (o/u at 233)
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going 297-278 SU but 257-301-15 ATS (46.1%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-14 vs. MIA)
Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well in the next contest as well, going 145-98 SU and 139-97-7 ATS (58.9%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-8.5 vs. SAS), CHICAGO (+6 vs. DET)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #2:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been fantastic in the rare role of playing as road favorites, going 35-12 SU and 32-13-2 ATS (71.1%) in their last 47 tries.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-3 at BKN)
NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 107-20 SU but 56-69-3 ATS (44.8%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL ATS): OKLAHOMA CITY (-14 vs. MIA), DENVER (-11.5 v.s POR)
NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 66-16 SU and 47-33-2 ATS (58.8%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-8.5 at UTA)
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 228-277-3 ATS (45.1%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 30-130 SU and 69-86-5 ATS (44.5%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW ORLEANS (+5 vs. SAC), DENVER (-11.5 vs. POR)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHICAGO +6 (+4.2)
2. DALLAS +6.5 (+3.8)
3. ATLANTA +8 (+3.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1(tie). ORLANDO -12.5 (+2.0)
CLEVELAND -14.5 (+2.0)
3. OKLAHOMA CITY -14.5 (+0.1)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHICAGO +6 (+5.2)
2. BROOKLYN +3 (+4.4)
3. DALLAS +6.5 (+3.7)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ORLANDO -12.5 (+1.8)
2(tie). OKLAHOMA CITY -14.5 (+1.7)
DENVER -11.5 (+1.7)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHA-ORL OVER 202 (+1.2)
2. CLE-TOR OVER 235 (+0.9)
3. MIL-MIN OVER 223.5 (+0.8)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. IND-WSH UNDER 242 (-3.4)
2. SAS-BOS UNDER 234 (-2.9)
3. PHI-BKN UNDER 211.5 (-0.5)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DALLAS +6.5 (+5.3)
2. CHICAGO +6 (+5.0)
3. ATLANTA +8 (+3.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ORLANDO -12.5 (+3.2)
2. DENVER -11.5 (+3.1)
3. CLEVELAND -14.5 (+2.0)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHA-ORL OVER 202 (+1.5)
2. DET-CHI OVER 236.5 (+1.4)
3. MIL-MIN OVER 223.5 (+1.0)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. IND-WSH UNDER 242 (-4.1)
2. SAS-BOS UNDER 234 (-3.0)
3. POR-DEN UNDER 233 (-1.8)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(503) INDIANA at (504) WASHINGTON
* Over the total is 8-0-1 in the last nine games when IND visits WSH
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total
(505) CHARLOTTE at (506) ORLANDO
* ORLANDO is 7-1 SU and ATS in the last eight games versus Charlotte
Trend Match: PLAY ORLANDO
(507) ATLANTA at (508) NEW YORK
* Under the total is 8-2 in the last 10 of the ATL-NYK series in New York
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(509) CLEVELAND at (510) TORONTO
* Favorites are 10-1 ATS in the last 11 of the CLE-TOR series at Toronto
Trend Match: PLAY CLEVELAND
(511) PHILADELPHIA at (512) BROOKLYN
* PHILADELPHIA is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 games versus Brooklyn
Trend Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA ATS
(513) DETROIT at (514) CHICAGO
* Under the total is 6-2-1 in the last nine of the DET-CHI divisional rivalry at Chicago
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
