The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Wednesday, February 19, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Home teams on 3+ Days Rest are 27-13 SU and 24-9-7 ATS (72.7%) versus teams playing on a 4th Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
System Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-12 vs. CHA)

* Over the total is 5-1 in the last six games h2h games between Hornets and Lakers in Los Angeles
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHA-LAL (o/u at 228) 

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:15 AM ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results:

–  Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
–  Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
–  Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
–  Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January ‘23, this “super” majority group has gone just 70-104 ATS (40.2%), well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Match (FADE): LA LAKERS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved on these more-rare contests.
System Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1002-470 over the last 2+ seasons but for -214.88 units and an ROI of -14.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 746-483 but for +3.48 units and an ROI of +0.2%. This 14.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – LA LAKERS ML

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long! 

* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest are 47-24 SU and 42-26-3 ATS (61.8%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
2/19: LA LAKERS vs. Charlotte
System Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-12 vs. CHA)

* Home teams on 3+ Days Rest are 27-13 SU and 24-9-7 ATS (72.7%) versus teams playing on a 4th Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
2/19: LA LAKERS vs. Charlotte
System Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-12 vs. CHA)

* Under the total was 91-54 (62.8%) since the start of last season when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game, in other words, two pretty rested teams.
2/19: Under the total in CHARLOTTE-LA LAKERS
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CHA-LAL (o/u at 228)

* Under the total was 54-36 (60%) since the start of last season when both teams in an NBA matchup were in the same 3rd in 8+ Days game scenario…two rested teams.
2/19: Under the total in CHARLOTTE-LA LAKERS
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CHA-LAL (o/u at 228)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 228-43 SU but just 126-139-6 ATS (47.5%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): LA LAKERS (-12 vs. CHA) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 98-81 (54.7%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 194-162 (54.5%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 261-197 (57%).
System Match (PLAY OVER): CHA-LAL (o/u at 228)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 283-221 SU but 223-267-14 ATS (45.5%) over the last 6 seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 40-66 ATS.
System Match (FADE): LA LAKERS (-12 vs. CHA) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going 298-278 SU but 257-301-16 ATS (46.1%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): LA LAKERS (-12 vs. CHA)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: CHARLOTTE +12 (+1.2) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: CHARLOTTE +12 (+4.2)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: CHA-LAL UNDER 228 (-2.4) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: CHARLOTTE +12 (+0.3)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: CHA-LAL UNDER 228 (-0.3) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(541) CHARLOTTE vs. (542) LA LAKERS
* Over the total is 5-1 in the last six games between CHA and LAL in Los Angeles
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total
* LA LAKERS are 10-2 SU and 9-2-1 ATS in the last 12 games versus Charlotte
Trend Match: PLAY LA LAKERS

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