The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Wednesday, February 26, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AI’s Takes of the Day

Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. Here are today’s results: 

– PHI-BKN UNDER 231.5
Scheduling trend for NYK + team strength system #5 favors Under 

– MIAMI (-2.5 vs ATL)
Scheduling trend fades ATL + extreme stat system #6 favors MIA

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Road teams are 13-2 ATS in the last 15 of the Portland-Washington non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (-6 at WSH)

* Under the total is on an 81-34-1 (70.4%) in the last 116 when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a One Day Rest game.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SAC-UTA (o/u at 237.5)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results:

– Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
– Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
– Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2%

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 129-109 ATS (54.2%) over the last 2+ seasons. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI, CHICAGO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PORTLAND, BOSTON, OKLAHOMA CITY, SACRAMENTO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 66-50 ATS record (56.9%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 116 games was only about 4.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI, CHICAGO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning the number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 70-104 ATS (40.2%), well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PORTLAND, OKLAHOMA CITY, CHICAGO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, BOSTON, SACRAMENTO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last 2+ seasons, they are just 105-120 ATS, good for 46.7%. This is over a 5% drop off compared to the overall majority figures.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW YORK, MIAMI, HOUSTON 

Here are some more specific money line angles: 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on the handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1002-470 over the last 2+ seasons but for -214.88 units and an ROI of -14.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 746-483 but for +3.48 units and an ROI of +0.2%. This 14.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – INDIANA ML, NEW YORK ML, MIAMI ML, HOUSTON ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January 2023. These majority handle groups are 130-26 SU but for -40.1 units, an ROI of -25.7%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Matches (FADE ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY ML, SACRAMENTO ML 

These last four systems involve totals. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): TOR-IND, SAS-HOU 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: There has been some decent success for the number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 282-242 (53.8%) for +15.8 units and an ROI of +3% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – TOR-IND
UNDER – POR-WSH, PHI-NYK, SAC-UTA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY OVER): OKC-BKN 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising the total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 136-102 (57.1%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Match (PLAY OVER): SAS-HOU

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long! 

* Home teams playing a H2H b2b game were 45-47 SU and 51-39-2 ATS (56.7%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last two seasons.
2/26: HOUSTON vs. San Antonio
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-9.5 vs. SAS) 

* Home teams playing in a 3rd Home in 4 Days game scenario were 40-25 SU and 40-22-3 ATS (64.5%) since the start of last season hosting teams a 3rd in 4 Days game.
2/26: INDIANA vs. Toronto
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (-10.5 vs. TOR)

* Over the total was 95-78 (54.9%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on an A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4th in 6 Days game.
2/26: Over the total in SAN ANTONIO-HOUSTON
2/26: Over the total in BOSTON-DETROIT
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): SAS-HOU (o/u at 229), BOS-DET (o/u at 226.5) 

* Over the total was 94-68 (58%) over the last four seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the opponent was playing a 3rd Straight Road game.
2/26: Over the total in HOUSTON-SAN ANTONIO
System Match (PLAY OVER): SAS-HOU (o/u at 229) 

* Over the total was 45-35 (56.3%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing an A2A b2b game.
2/26: Over the total in HOUSTON-SAN ANTONIO
System Match (PLAY OVER): SAS-HOU (o/u at 229) 

* Over the total was 56-51 (52.3%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
2/26: Over the total in INDIANA-TORONTO
System Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-IND (o/u at 233.5) 

* Under the total is on an 81-34-1 (70.4%) in the last 116 when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a One Day Rest game.
2/26: Under the total in SACRAMENTO-UTAH
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SAC-UTA (o/u at 237.5) 

* Under the total was 37-18 (67.3%) since the start of last season when the home team was playing a 3rdStraightHome game versus a road team on 4th in 10+ Days scenario.
2/26: Under the total in UTAH-SACRAMENTO
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SAC-UTA (o/u at 237.5) 

* ATLANTA is on 11-33 SU and 11-32-1 ATS skid when playing on the road in its 3rd Game in 4 Days
2/26: Fade ATLANTA at Miami
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+2.5 at MIA) 

* INDIANA is 12-2 SU and 11-2-1 ATS in its last 14 4th Straight Home games
2/26: INDIANA vs. Toronto
Trend Match (PLAY): INDIANA (-10.5 vs. TOR) 

* LA CLIPPERS are on an 18-27 SU and 13-32 ATS skid in its last 45 tries playing a 3rd in 4 days game
2/26: Fade LA CLIPPERS at Chicago
Trend Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS (-8.5 at CHI) 

* MIAMI is on an 8-8 SU but 5-11 ATS skid playing at home in a 4th in 6 Days game
2/26: Fade MIAMI vs. Atlanta
Trend Match (FADE): MIAMI (-2.5 vs. ATL) 

* PHILADELPHIA is an impressive 40-32 SU and 44-27-1 ATS in its last 72 road games when playing on standard One Day Rest
2/26: PHILADELPHIA at New York
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+10 at NYK) 

* NEW YORK is 23-8 Under the total since 2020-21 when playing at home on 2 Days Rest
2/26: Under the total in NEW YORK-PHILADELPHIA
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-NYK (o/u at 231.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 231-44 SU but just 128-141-6 ATS (47.6%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-17 at BKN) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 101-83 (54.9%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 196-164 (54.4%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 261-199 (56.7%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – TOR-IND (o/u at 233.5), OKC-BKN (o/u at 216), SAC-UTA (o/u at 237.5)
UNDER – PHI-NYK (o/u at 231.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

Favorites flush low-scoring totals quickly
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 143-54 SU and 116-79-2 ATS (59.5%) in their last 197 tries.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-2.5 vs. ATL)

Close wins haven’t provided momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 263-139 SU but just 172-218-12 ATS (44.1%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE ALL): PORTLAND (-6 at WSH), HOUSTON (-9.5 vs. SAS) 

Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 286-223 SU but 225-269-15 ATS (45.5%) over the last 6 seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 40-66-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+8.5 vs. LAC) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 293-249 (54.1%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER ALL): BOS-DET (o/u at 226.5), LAC-CHI (o/u at 228.5) 

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 271-287 SU and 247-303-8 ATS (44.9%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): SACRAMENTO (-10 at UTA)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going 303-282 SU but 262-304-17 ATS (46.3%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): SACRAMENTO (-10 at UTA)

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 151-170 SU and 144-168-9 ATS (46.2%) in that next contest over the last six seasons.
System Match (FADE): SACRAMENTO (-10 at UTA)

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well in the next contest as well, going 148-99 SU and 141-99-7 ATS (58.8%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (+2.5 at MIA), SACRAMENTO (-10 at UTA)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning OR losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 231-282-3 ATS (45%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 30-130 SU and 69-86-5 ATS (44.5%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (+10 at NYK), DETROIT (+4.5 vs. BOS)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHICAGO +9 (+0.9)
2. DETROIT +4.5 (+0.8)
3. TORONTO +10.5 (+0.6) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW YORK -10 (+2.2)
2. SACRAMENTO -10 (+1.4)
3. OKLAHOMA CITY -17 (+0.7) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHICAGO +9 (+3.4)
2. ATLANTA +2.5 (+0.3) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW YORK -10 (+2.0)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -17 (+1.1)
3. INDIANA -10.5 (+0.7) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LAC-CHI OVER 228.5 (+1.1)
2. TOR-IND OVER 233.5 (+0.7)
3. PHI-NYK OVER 231.5 (+0.2) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ATL-MIA UNDER 231 (-2.7)
2. BOS-DET UNDER 226.5 (-1.8)
3. OKC-BKN UNDER 216 (-0.9) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TORONTO +10.5 (+1.0)
2. CHICAGO +9 (+0.6)
3. SAN ANTONIO +9.5 (+0.5) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SACRAMENTO -10 (+2.4)
2(tie). NEW YORK -10 (+1.8)
OKLAHOMA CITY -17 (+1.8) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAS-HOU OVER 229 (+2.7)
2. SAC-UTA OVER 237.5 (+2.1)
3. TOR-IND OVER 233.5 (+1.9) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. POR-WSH UNDER 232 (-4.3)
2. ATL-MIA UNDER 231 (-2.1)
3. BOS-DET UNDER 226.5 (-2.0)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(501) TORONTO at (502) INDIANA
* Underdogs are 7-1 ATS in the last eight of the TOR-IND series
Trend Match: PLAY TORONTO ATS 

(503) PORTLAND at (504) WASHINGTON
* Road teams are 13-2 ATS in the last 15 of the POR-WSH non-conference series
Trend Match: PLAY PORTLAND ATS 

(507) PHILADELPHIA at (508) NEW YORK
* Road teams are 9-3 ATS in the last 12 of the PHI-NYK divisional rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA ATS 

(509) ATLANTA at (510) MIAMI
* Under the total is 10-2 in the last 12 of the ATL-MIA divisional series at Miami
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total 

(511) OKLAHOMA CITY at (512) BROOKLYN
* Underdogs have covered six straight ATS in the OKC-BKN series at Brooklyn
Trend Match: PLAY BROOKLYN ATS 

(513) LA CLIPPERS at (514) CHICAGO
* Favorites are 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS in the last 12 matchups between LAC and CHI in Chicago
Trend Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS ATS 

(515) SACRAMENTO at (516) UTAH
* Over the total is 9-3-1 in the last 13 of the SAC-UTA series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(517) SAN ANTONIO at (518) HOUSTON
* Home teams are 7-1 ATS in the last eight of the SAS-HOU divisional rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY HOUSTON ATS

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