The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Wednesday, February 5, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AI’s Takes of the Day

Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting 1/30: 7-8. Here are today’s results: 

– MILWAUKEE (-10.5 at CHA)
Streak plays favor Milwaukee + Charlotte bad at home on One Day Rest 

– CLE-DET UNDER 236
4+ systems/trends favor the Under today 

– ORLANDO (+5.5 at SAC)
ORL typically good in 3rd Straight Road Game scenario + 2 other systems favor them 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* Over the total is 13-3 in the last 16 of the Chicago-Minnesota non-conference series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total in CHI-MIN (o/u at 227.5) 

* Teams having lost their last four games or more have been fantastic in the rare role of playing as road favorites, going 34-12 SU and 32-12-2 ATS (72.7%) in their last 46 tries.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-10.5 at CHA) 

* In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 105-70 SU and 106-66-3 ATS (61.6%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+2.5 at BKN) 

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results:

–  Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
–  Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
–  Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
–  Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2%

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 129-109 ATS (54.2%) over the last 2+ seasons. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, MILWAUKEE, SAN ANTONIO, MEMPHIS, GOLDEN STATE 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 66-50 ATS record (56.9%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 116 games was only about 4.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN ANTONIO, PHILADELPHIA, NEW ORLEANS, SACRAMENTO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning the number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 70-104 ATS (40.2%), well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, BROOKLYN 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN ANTONIO, SACRAMENTO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BROOKLYN, GOLDEN STATE, OKLAHOMA CITY 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last 2+ seasons, they are just 105-120 ATS, good for 46.7%. This is over a 5% drop off compared to the overall majority figures.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, MEMPHIS, 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January 2023. These majority handle groups are 130-26 SU, but for -40.1 units, an ROI of -25.7%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE ML 

These last four systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CLE-DET, WSH-BKN, MEM-TOR, ORL-SAC 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: There has been some decent success for the number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 282-242 (53.8%) for +15.8 units and an ROI of +3% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – CLE-DET, MEM-TOR
UNDER – SAS-ATL 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – MIA-PHI
UNDER – WSH-BKN, ORL-SAC 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising the total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 136-102 (57.1%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): ORL-SAC

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long! 

* Teams playing on 3rd Straight Home game were 79-40 SU and 70-44-5 ATS (61.4%) hosting teams playing an A2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
2/5: PHILADELPHIA vs. Miami
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+1 vs. MIA) 

* Road teams playing an A2A b2b game are 31-40 SU BUT 40-30-3 ATS (57.1%) facing hosts playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game over the last four seasons.
2/5: MIAMI at Philadelphia
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-1 at PHI)

* Home teams playing a H2H b2b game were 41-43 SU and 47-35-2 ATS (57.3%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last two seasons.
2/5: PHILADELPHIA vs. Miami
2/5: BROOKLYN vs. Washington
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (+1 vs. MIA), BROOKLYN (-2.5 vs. WSH) 

* Host teams playing a 4th Straight Home are 37-20 SU and 38-18-1 ATS (67.9%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
2/5: PHILADELPHIA vs. Miami
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+1 vs. MIA) 

* Home teams playing in a 3rd Home in 4 Days game scenario were 34-23 SU and 33-21-3 ATS (61.1%) since the start of last season hosting teams a 3rd in 4 Days game.
2/5: TORONTO vs. Memphis
2/5: DETROIT vs. Cleveland
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (+9.5 vs. MEM), DETROIT (+6 vs. CLE) 

* Under the total was 115-92-1 (55.6%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
2/5: Under the total in TORONTO-MEMPHIS
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MEM-TOR (o/u at 238.5) 

* Over the total was 92-75 (55.1%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on an A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4thin6Days game.
2/5: Over the total in MIAMI-PHILADELPHIA
System Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-PHI (o/u at 219)

* Over the total was 90-64 (58.4%) over the last four seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the opponent was playing a 3rd Straight Road game.
2/5: Over the total in PHILADELPHIA-MIAMI
2/5: Over the total in BROOKLYN-WASHINGTON
System Matches (PLAY OVER): MIA-PHI (o/u at 219), WSH-BKN (o/u at 216) 

* Over the total was 42-31 (57.5%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing an A2A b2b game.
2/5: Over the total in PHILADELPHIA-MIAMI
System Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-PHI (o/u at 219) 

* Over the total was 54-48 (52.9%) over last two seasons when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
2/5: Over the total in MINNESOTA-CHICAGO
2/5: Over the total in DETROIT-CLEVELAND
System Matches (PLAY OVER): CLE-DET (o/u at 236), CHI-MIN (o/u at 227.5)

The following are 40 of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

* CHARLOTTE is 33-84 SU and 45-68-2 ATS since the 2022-23 season when playing at home on OneDayRest
2/5: Fade CHARLOTTE vs. Milwaukee
Trend Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (+10.5 vs. MIL)

* GOLDEN STATE is on an extended slide of 41-56 SU and 39-58 ATS when playing on the road on One Day Rest
2/5: Fade GOLDEN STATE at Utah
Trend Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-6.5 at UTA) 

* MILWAUKEE is on a 43-43 SU and 31-54-1 ATS skid in the last 86 when playing on standard One Day Rest
2/5: FADE MILWAUKEE at Charlotte
Trend Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-10.5 vs. CHA) 

* ORLANDO is on a 16-20 SU but 22-14 ATS run when playing a 3rd Straight Road game
2/5: ORLANDO at Sacramento
Trend Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (+5.5 at SAC) 

* TORONTO is on a 31-19 SU and ATS run when playing a 3rd Straight Home game
2/5: TORONTO vs. Memphis
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+9.5 vs. MEM) 

* DETROIT is on a 15-6 Under the total run when playing a 3rd Straight Home game
2/5: Under the total in DETROIT-CLEVELAND
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-DET (o/u at 236) 

* OKLAHOMA CITY is 23-11 Over the total in its last 34 3rd Straight Home games
2/5: Over the total in OKLAHOMA CITY-PHOENIX
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHX-OKC (o/u at 227.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 105-70 SU and 106-66-3 ATS (61.6%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+2.5 at BKN) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 223-41 SU but just 124-135-5 ATS (47.9%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-11.5 vs CHI) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 96-81 (54.2%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 188-161 (53.9%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 252-195 (56.4%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): MIL-CHA (o/u at 220.5), CHI-MIN (o/u at 227.5), NOP-DEN (o/u at 239.5), PHX-OKC (o/u at 227.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.

Close wins haven’t provided momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 259-136 SU but just 170-213-12 ATS (44.4%) in the next contest when favored again. (PHI 2/5)
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (*if they become favored vs Miami, +1 currently)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 282-247 (53.3%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CLE-DET (o/u at 236), SAS-ATL (o/u at 242.5) 

Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 175-144 SU and 179-131-9 ATS (57.7%) run.
System Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (+5.5 at SAC) 

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #2:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been fantastic in the rare role of playing as road favorites, going 34-12 SU and 32-12-2 ATS (72.7%) in their last 46 tries.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-10.5 at CHA) 

NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 71-83 SU but 86-66-3 ATS (56.6%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-10.5 at CHA) 

NBA Streak Betting System #7:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have also been a great wager when they are a strong defensive team, as those allowing less than 110 PPG are 48-46 SU and 57-33-4 ATS (63.3%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (+5.5 at SAC)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHICAGO +11.5 (+4.3)
2. ATLANTA +4.5 (+3.6)
3. NEW ORLEANS +10.5 (+1.2) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OKLAHOMA CITY -12.5 (+0.7)
2. BROOKLYN -2.5 (+0.2) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHICAGO +11.5 (+5.2)
2. PHOENIX +12.5 (+2.9)
3. ATLANTA +4.5 (+2.7) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLEVELAND -6 (+1.9)
2. MEMPHIS -9.5 (+1.8)
3. DENVER -10.5 (+1.6) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIL-CHA OVER 220.5 (+2.6)
2. ORL-SAC OVER 218.5 (+1.5)
3. CLE-DET OVER 236 (+1.2) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAS-ATL UNDER 242.5 (-5.5)
2(tie). CHI-MIN UNDER 227.5 (-0.9)
NOP-DEN UNDER 239.5 (-0.9) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ATLANTA +4.5 (+4.3)
2. CHICAGO +11.5 (+3.7)
3. TORONTO +9.5 (+1.0) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MILWAUKEE -10 (+1.8)
2. GOLDEN STATE -6.5 (+1.5)
3. BROOKLYN -2.5 (+1.1) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MEM-TOR OVER 238.5 (+3.0)
2. CLE-DET OVER 236 (+2.0)
3. ORL-SAC OVER 218.5 (+1.6) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAS-ATL UNDER 242.5 (-4.2)
2. CHI-MIN UNDER 227.5 (-1.3)
3. MIA-PHI UNDER 219.5 (-0.6) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(535) CLEVELAND at (536) DETROIT
* Under the total is 9-1 in the last 10 divisional games between CLE and DET
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total 

(537) MILWAUKEE at (538) CHARLOTTE
* Under the total is 8-2 in the last 10 games when MIL visits CHA
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total 

(539) MIAMI at (540) PHILADELPHIA
* MIAMI is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 games versus Philadelphia
Trend Match: PLAY MIAMI ATS 

(541) SAN ANTONIO at (542) ATLANTA
* Home teams have won five straight ATS in the SAS-ATL non-conference series
Trend Match: PLAY ATLANTA ATS 

(545) MEMPHIS at (546) TORONTO
* Under the total is 10-1 in the last 11 games when Memphis visits Toronto
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
* Road teams are 8-1 SU and ATS in the last nine games between MEM and TOR
Trend Match: PLAY MEMPHIS ATS

(547) CHICAGO at (548) MINNESOTA
* Over the total is 13-3 in the last 16 of the CHI-MIN non-conference series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(549) PHOENIX at (550) OKLAHOMA CITY
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six games versus Phoenix
Trend Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY ATS 

(551) GOLDEN STATE at (552) UTAH
* GOLDEN STATE is 8-2 ATS versus Utah in the last 10
Trend Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE ATS 

(553) NEW ORLEANS at (554) DENVER
* Home teams are 10-1 ATS in the last 11 games between NOP and DEN
Trend Match: PLAY DENVER ATS 

(555) ORLANDO at (556) SACRAMENTO
* Over the total is 9-1 in the last 10 matchups between ORL and SAC but did go Under last time
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total

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