Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Wednesday, January 1, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Over the total is 10-1 in the last 11 games of the ATL-DEN series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 246.5)
* In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 101-66 SU and 101-63-3 ATS (61.6%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (-1 at TOR)
* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 39-22 SU BUT 25-35-1 ATS (41.7%) hosting teams playing on a 4th Road in 6 Days game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-5 vs. DAL)
* Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 49-66-1 ATS (42.6%) in the next game, including 22-36 ATS (37.9%) on the road over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (-13 vs. UTA)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 94-75 ATS (55.6%). This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO, BROOKLYN, PHILADELPHIA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, PHILADELPHIA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning the number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 60-86 ATS (41.1%), well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Match (FADE): DENVER
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI, NEW YORK, DENVER, PHILADELPHIA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, CHICAGO
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on the handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 782-357 over the last 1-1/2 seasons but for -131.98 units and an ROI of -11.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 571-358 but for +23.75 units and an ROI of +2.6%. This 14.2% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – DETROIT ML, MIAMI ML, NEW YORK ML, HOUSTON ML, DENVER ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority money line handle was on a team in a divisional matchup last season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on the handle for +30 units, an ROI of 11.5%. This ROI is a notable improvement over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BROOKLYN ML, HOUSTON ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for a money line wager over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has done well, going 86-138 but for +19.67 units and an ROI of +8.8%. It takes patience to wager something that wins only 38% of the time, but the reward is there.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA ML
These last four systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): ORL-DET, BKN-TOR, NOP-MIA, PHI-SAC
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for the number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – BKN-TOR, NOP-MIA
UNDER – ATL-DEN
DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): ORL-DET
DK NBA Betting Splits system #16: Majority Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising the total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 106-71 (59.9%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): ORL-DET
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 139-95 SU but 101-130-3 ATS (43.7%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last four seasons.
1/1: Fade HOUSTON vs. Dallas
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-5 vs. DAL)
* Home teams playing on 2 Days Rest are 75-42 SU but 52-64-1 ATS (44.8%) hosting teams playing a 4thStraightRoad game over the last four seasons.
1/1: Fade HOUSTON vs. Dallas
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-5 vs. DAL)
* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 39-22 SU but 25-35-1 ATS (41.7%) hosting teams playing on a 4th Road in 6 Days game over the last four seasons.
1/1: Fade HOUSTON vs. Dallas
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-5 vs. DAL)
* Over the total was 26-19 (57.8%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on an A2H b2b and the road team was playing on 2 Days Rest.
1/1: Over the total in TORONTO-BROOKLYN
System Match (PLAY OVER): BKN-TOR (o/u at 220)
* PHILADELPHIA is an impressive 39-27 SU and 43-23 ATS in its last 66 road games when playing on standard One Day Rest
1/1: PHILADELPHIA at Sacramento
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+6.5 at SAC)
* UTAH is on a 43-21 Over the total run when playing on the road with One Day Rest
1/1: Over the total in UTAH-NEW YORK
System Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-NYK (o/u at 229)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trends for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 140-48 SU and 113-74-1 ATS (60.4%) run.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-5 vs. DAL)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 101-66 SU and 101-63-3 ATS (61.6%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (-1 at TOR)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 194-36 SU but just 106-120-4 ATS (46.9%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (-13 vs. UTA)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 92-79 (53.8%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 171-144 (54.3%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 242-184 (56.8%).
System Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-NYK (o/u a 229)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These NBA betting trends search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.
Back-to-back scoring outbursts could be the beginning of a trend
NBA teams coming off back-to-back wins in which they scored 130+ points in each outing have gone 66-50 SU and 63-51-2 ATS (55.3%) in the follow-up contest since 2018, including 24-17 ATS as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-5.5 vs. ATL)
Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 252-133 SU but just 165-208-12 ATS (44.2%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): ORLANDO (*if they become favorites at Detroit, +1.5 currently)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 278-236 (54.1%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-DEN (o/u at 246.5)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trends for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #1:
When teams on alternate streaks of at least four games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 30-63 SU but 51-42 ATS (54.8%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (+13 at NYK)
NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 100-17 SU BUT 51-64-3 ATS (44.3%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (-13 vs. UTA)
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 207-262-3 ATS (44.1%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 27-118 SU and 60-80-5 ATS (42.9%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO (+1 vs. BKN), NEW ORLEANS (+8.5 at MIA), NEW YORK (-13 vs. UTA)
NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 49-66-1 ATS (42.6%) in the next game, including 22-36 ATS (37.9%) on the road over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (-13 vs. UTA)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHILADELPHIA +6.5 (+3.3)
2. WASHINGTON +5.5 (+2.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW YORK -13 (+1.7)
2. DETROIT -2 (+1.3)
3. HOUSTON -5 (+1.0)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. UTAH +13 (+3.1)
2. NEW ORLEANS +8.5 (+2.7)
3. PHILADELPHIA +6.5 (+1.0)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DENVER -5.5 (+0.5)
2. DETROIT -2 (+0.2)
3. HOUSTON -5 (+0.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. UTA-NYK OVER 228.5 (+3.1)
2. DAL-HOU OVER 222 (+1.1)
3. ORL-DET OVER 213 (+0.4)
Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NOP-MIA UNDER 220.5 (-1.6)
2. CHI-WSH UNDER 238 (-1.3)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHILADELPHIA +6.5 (+2.4)
2. WASHINGTON +5.5 (+2.2)
3. TORONTO +1 (+1.8)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DENVER -5.5 (+1.7)
2. HOUSTON -5 (+0.5)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. UTA-NYK OVER 228.5 (+1.3)
2. DAL-HOU OVER 222 (+0.7)
3. ORL-DET OVER 213 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BKN-TOR UNDER 219.5 (-3.4)
2. NOP-MIA UNDER 220.5 (-3.0)
3. ATL-DEN UNDER 246.5 (-2.4)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(513) ORLANDO at (514) DETROIT
* Home teams are 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 of the ORL-DET series
Trend Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS
(517) BROOKLYN at (518) TORONTO
* Under the total is 9-1 in the last 10 of the BKN-TOR divisional rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(519) NEW ORLEANS at (520) MIAMI
* Under the total is 6-1 in the last seven games between NOP and MIA in Miami
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(525) ATLANTA at (526) DENVER
* Over the total is 10-1 in the last 11 games of the ATL-DEN series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total
* DENVER is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings with Atlanta
Trend Match: PLAY DENVER ATS
(527) PHILADELPHIA at (528) SACRAMENTO
* PHILADELPHIA is 7-2 ATS in the last nine games versus Sacramento, but did lose last time
Trend Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA ATS
