The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Wednesday, January 15, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board. 

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Under the total is 11-2 in the last 13 of the Charlotte-Utah series at Utah
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CHA-UTA (o/u at 220.5) 

*NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 267-213 SU but 207-260-13 ATS (44.3%) over the last six seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 36-64 ATS.
System Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO (+2.5 vs. MEM) 

* NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 72-27 SU and 63-35-1 ATS (64.3%).
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (-5 at UTA) 

* NEW YORK is on 26-21 SU and 30-17 ATS run on the road in the 3rd in 4 Days game scenario
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-6 at PHI)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a four-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 94-75 ATS (55.6%). This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, BOSTON, MEMPHIS, CHARLOTTE, BROOKLYN 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO, CHARLOTTE, DENVER, BROOKLYN 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January ‘23, this “super” majority group has gone just 60-86 ATS (41.1%), well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Match (FADE): DENVER 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHARLOTTE, LA LAKERS, BROOKLYN 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO, MINNESOTA

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too: 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority money line handle was on a team in a divisional matchup last season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on the handle for +30 units, an ROI of 11.5%. This ROI is a notable improvement over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK ML, BOSTON ML, DALLAS ML, MEMPHIS ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for a money line wager over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has done well, going 86-138 but for +19.67 units and an ROI of +8.8%. It takes patience to wager something that wins only 38% of the time, but the reward is there.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January ’23. These majority handle groups are 97-22 SU, but for -46.6 units, an ROI of -39.2%. while majority number of bets groups have gone 101-22 SU but for -43.6 units, an ROI of -35.4%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON ML

These last four systems involve totals. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): DAL-NOP, ATL-CHI, MEM-SAS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January 2023.
System Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-DEN

DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): ORL-MIL, GSW-MIN, MIA-LAL, BKN-LAC

DK NBA Betting Splits system #16: Majority Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising the total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 106-71 (59.9%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): DAL-NOP, MEM-SAS

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following NBA betting trends are an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long! 

* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 141-97 SU but 103-132-3 ATS (43.8%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last four seasons.
1/15: Fade UTAH vs. Charlotte
System Match (FADE): UTAH (+5 vs. CHA)

* Home teams playing on 2 DaysRest are 77-43 SU but 54-65-1 ATS (45.4%) hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game over the last four seasons.
1/15: Fade UTAH vs. Charlotte
System Match (FADE): UTAH (+5 vs. CHA) 

* Teams playing on 3rd Straight Home game were 75-39 SU and 65-44-5 ATS (59.6%) hosting teams playing a A2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
1/15: LA CLIPPERS vs. Brooklyn
System Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (-14 vs. BKN) 

* Hosts playing in a A2H b2b game scenario are 22-33 SU and 20-34-1 ATS (37%) since the start of last season hosting teams playing on One Day Rest.
1/15: FADE DENVER vs. Houston
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-1 vs. HOU) 

* Over the total is 34-21 (61.8%) since the start of last season when the home team was on A2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
1/15: Over the total in DENVER-HOUSTON
System Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-DEN (o/u at 231.5) 

* DALLAS is 11-5 SU and 13-3 ATS since start of last season when playing on the road in its 3rd Game in 4 Days
1/15: DALLAS at New Orleans
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-2 at NOP) 

* GOLDEN STATE is on an extended slide of 40-55 SU and 37-58 ATS when playing on the road on One Day Rest
1/15: Fade GOLDEN STATE at Minnesota
Trend Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (+6 at MIN)

* MIAMI is on a 19-12 SU and 21-9-1 ATS run when playing a 4th Straight Road game
1/15: MIAMI at La Lakers
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+5.5 at LAL) 

* NEW YORK is on 26-21 SU and 30-17 ATS run on the road in the 3rd in 4 Days game scenario
1/15: NEW YORK at Philadelphia
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-6 at PHI)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 72-27 SU and 63-35-1 ATS (64.3%).
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (-5 at UTA) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 203-38 SU but just 112-124-5 ATS (47.5%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS (-14 vs. BKN) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 93-79 (54.1%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 177-149 (54.3%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 244-191 (56.1%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – BKN-LAC (o/u at 213)
UNDER – BOS-TOR (o/u at 230)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trends search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.

Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 254-133 SU but just 167-208-12 ATS (44.5%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-14.5 at TOR) 

Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 267-213 SU but 207-260-13 ATS (44.3%) over the last 6 seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 36-64 ATS (36%).
System Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO (+2.5 vs. MEM)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 259-274 SU and 236-290-7 ATS (44.9%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (+1 at DEN) 

Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 172-143 SU and 176-130-9 ATS (57.5%) run.
System Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (-14 vs. BKN)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trends for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW ORLEANS +2 (+3.4)
2. ORLANDO +5.5 (+1.1)
3. UTAH +5 (+0.7) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW YORK -6 (+2.7)
2. DENVER -1 (+2.3)
3. CHICAGO -2 (+2.0) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW ORLEANS +2 (+2.8)
2. PHILADELPHIA +6 (+1.8)
3. MIAMI +5.5 (+0.8) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DENVER -1 (+1.8)
2. CHICAGO -2 (+1.3)
3. CHARLOTTE -5 (+1.2) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHA-UTA OVER 220.5 (+2.0)
2. ORL-MIL OVER 211 (+1.8)
3. BKN-LAC OVER 213 (+0.9) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. HOU-DEN UNDER 231.5 (-3.2)
2(tie). BOS-TOR UNDER 230 (-1.3)
DAL-NOP UNDER 225 (-1.3) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW ORLEANS +2 (+2.0)
2. GOLDEN STATE +6 (+0.7)
3. ORLANDO +5.5 (+0.2) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOSTON -14.5 (+3.4)
2. LA LAKERS -5.5 (+2.6)
3. NEW YORK -6 (+2.4) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ATL-CHI OVER 244 (+2.9)
2(tie). ORL-MIL OVER 211 (+1.8)
CHA-UTA OVER 220.5 (+1.8) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. HOU-DEN UNDER 231.5 (-2.3)
2. DAL-NOP UNDER 225 (-2.1)
3. NYK-PHI UNDER 220 (-1.8) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(501) NEW YORK at (502) PHILADELPHIA
* NEW YORK is 5-1 ATS in the last six visits to Philadelphia
Trend Match: PLAY NEW YORK ATS 

(503) BOSTON at (504) TORONTO
* Under the total is 5-1 in the last six of the BOS-TOR divisional rivalry at Toronto
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total 

(505) DALLAS at (506) NEW ORLEANS
* Over the total is 5-1 in the last six of the DAL-NOP series at New Orleans
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(507) ORLANDO at (508) MILWAUKEE
* ORLANDO has covered five of the last six matchups with Milwaukee
Trend Match: PLAY ORLANDO ATS 

(511) ATLANTA at (512) CHICAGO
* CHICAGO is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 games with Atlanta
Trend Match: PLAY CHICAGO ATS 

(513) MEMPHIS at (514) SAN ANTONIO
* SAN ANTONIO is 7-2 ATS in the last nine matchups with divisional foe Memphis
Trend Match: PLAY SAN ANTONIO ATS 

(515) CHARLOTTE at (516) UTAH
* Under the total is 11-2 in the last 13 of the CHA-UTA series at Utah
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total 

(519) MIAMI at (520) LA LAKERS
* Under the total is 9-2 in the last 11 of the MIA-LAL series in Los Angeles
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total 

(521) BROOKLYN at (522) LA CLIPPERS
* Underdogs are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 of the BKN-LAC non-Conference series
Trend Match: PLAY BROOKLYN ATS

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