The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Wednesday, January 29, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Over the total is 11-2 in the last 13 of the Detroit-Indiana divisional rivalry at Indiana
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DET-IND (o/u at 230.5) 

* NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 73-28 SU and 63-37-1 ATS (63%).
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-6.5 at WSH) 

* NBA teams coming off back-to-back wins in which they scored 130+ points in each outing have gone 68-52 SU and 65-53-2 ATS (55.1%) in the follow-up contest since 2018, including 24-17 ATS as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-3 vs DEN)

* Over the total was 15-7 (68.2%) since the start of last season when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the road team was playing a 4th Straight Road game.
System Match (PLAY OVER): SAC-PHI (o/u at 229)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to u, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results: 

–   Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
–   Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
–   Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
–   Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
–   Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
–   Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2%

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 129-109 ATS (54.2%) over the last 2+ seasons. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO, BROOKLYN, SACRAMENTO, CLEVELAND, LA CLIPPERS, DALLAS, MINNESOTA, OKLAHOMA CITY 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, SACRAMENTO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO, BROOKLYN, CLEVELAND, LA CLIPPERS, OKLAHOMA CITY 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last 2+ seasons, they are just 105-120 ATS, good for 46.7%. This is over a 5% drop off compared to the overall majority figures.
System Matches (FADE ALL): INDIANA, DALLAS 

Here are some more specific money line angles:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1002-470 over the last 2+ seasons but for -214.88 units and an ROI of -14.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 746-483 but for +3.48 units and an ROI of +0.2%. This 14.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – INDIANA ML, BOSTON ML, SAN ANTONIO ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January ’23. These majority handle groups are 130-26 SU but for -40.1 units, an ROI of -25.7%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY ML

These last three systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): BKN-CHA, CHI-BOS, LAC-SAS, OKC-GSW 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: There has been some decent success for the number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 282-242 (53.8%) for +15.8 units and an ROI of +3% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – TOR-WSH
UNDER – DEN-NYK, DAL-NOP 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – MIN-PHX
UNDER – BKN-CHA

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long! 

* Teams on 3+ Days Rest are 189-128 SU and 185-124 ATS (59.9%) versus teams playing on OneDayRest over the last four seasons.
1/29: INDIANA vs. Detroit
1/29: SAN ANTONIO vs. LA Clippers
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA (-7 vs. DET), SAN ANTONIO (+4 vs. LAC) 

* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest are 67-31 SU and 62-34-2 ATS (64.6%) hosting road teams on One Day Rest over the last three seasons.
1/29: INDIANA vs. Detroit
1/29: SAN ANTONIO vs. La Clippers
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA (-7 vs. DET), SAN ANTONIO (+4 vs. LAC) 

* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest are 46-24 SU and 41-26-3 ATS (61.2%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
1/29: INDIANA vs. Detroit
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (-7 vs. DET) 

* Home teams on 3+ Days Rest are 26-13 SU and 23-9-7 ATS (71.9%) versus teams playing on a 4th Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
1/29: INDIANA vs. Detroit
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (-7 vs. DET) 

* Home teams playing a H2H b2b game were 40-40 SU and 45-33-2 ATS (57.7%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over last two seasons.
1/29: PHILADELPHIA vs. Sacramento
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+9 vs SAC)

* Hosts playing in a H2H b2b game scenario were 21-19 SU and 24-16 ATS (60%) over the last two seasons hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game.
1/29: PHILADELPHIA vs. Sacramento
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+9 vs. SAC)

* Over the total was 114-81 (58.5%) over the last three seasons when one team was on One Day Rest and the opponent was playing on 3+ Days Rest.
1/29: Over the total in DETROIT-INDIANA
1/29: Over the total in LA CLIPPERS-SAN ANTONIO
System Matches (PLAY OVER): DET-IND (o/u at 230.5), LAC-SAS (o/u at 220.5) 

* Over the total was 88-62 (58.7%) over the last four seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the opponent was playing a 3rd Straight Road game.
1/29: Over the total in PHILADELPHIA-SACRAMENTO
System Match (PLAY OVER): SAC-PHI (o/u at 229)

* Over the total was 56-42 (57.1%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on 3+ Days Rest and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
1/29: Over the total in INDIANA-DETROIT
1/29: Over the total in SAN ANTONIO-LA CLIPPERS
System Matches (PLAY OVER): DET-IND (o/u at 230.5), LAC-SAS (o/u at 220.5) 

* Under the total is on a 64-24-1 (72.7%) in last 89 when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a One Day Rest game.
1/29: Under the total in INDIANA-DETROIT
1/29: Under the total in SAN ANTONIO-LA CLIPPERS
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): DET-IND (o/u at 230.5), LAC-SAS (o/u at 220.5)

* Over the total was 15-7 (68.2%) since the start of last season when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the road team was playing a 4th Straight Road game.
1/29: Over the total in PHILADELPHIA-SACRAMENTO
System Match (PLAY OVER): SAC-PHI (o/u at 229)

The following are 40 of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

* CHARLOTTE is 33-81 SU and 44-66-2 ATS since the 2022-23 season when playing at home on OneDayRest
1/29: Fade CHARLOTTE vs. Brooklyn
Trend Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (-3 vs. BKN) 

* DENVER is on a 3-12 ATS skid (8-7 SU) playing its 3rd Straight Road game since the start of last season
1/29: Fade DENVER at New York
Trend Match (FADE): DENVER (+2.5 at NYK) 

* OKLAHOMA CITY is 31-18 SU and 30-17-2 ATS in its last 49 games playing on 2 Days Rest
1/29: OKLAHOMA CITY at Golden State
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-10 at GSW)

* PHOENIX is 22-15 SU but 13-22-2 ATS in its last 37 3rd Straight Home games
1/29: Fade PHOENIX vs. Minnesota
Trend Match (FADE): PHOENIX (+1.5 vs. MIN)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 103-70 SU and 104-66-3 ATS (61.2%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (+3 at CHA) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 73-28 SU and 63-37-1 ATS (63%).
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-6.5 at WSH) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the L4 seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, nder the total has gone 96-80 (54.5%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 184-157 (54%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 251-194 (56.4%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): CHI-BOS (o/u at 231), OKC-GSW (o/u at 225)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 222-126 SU but 157-184-7 ATS (46%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is 31-33-1 ATS.
System Matches (FADE ALL): INDIANA (-7 vs. DET), NEW YORK (-3 vs. DEN) 

Back-to-back scoring outburst could be the beginning of a trend
NBA teams coming off back-to-back wins in which they scored 130+ points in each outing have gone 68-52 SU and 65-53-2 ATS (55.1%) in the follow-up contest since 2018, including 24-17 ATS as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-3 vs DEN) 

Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 273-217 SU but 211-265-14 ATS (44.3%) over the last 6 seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 37-66 ATS.
System Matches (FADE ALL): INDIANA (-7 vs. DET), NEW YORK (-3 vs. DEN)

Unusual shooting performance systems
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going 294-267 SU but 252-293-14 ATS (46.2%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO (+14.5 at BOS), DALLAS (-1 at NOP), PHOENIX (+1.5 vs. MIN)

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 148-166 SU and 143-163-8 ATS (46.7%) in that next contest over the last 6 seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO (+14.5 at BOS), DALLAS (-1 at NOP) 

Unusual defensive performances
Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 177-67 SU and 131-110-3 ATS (54.4%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (-4 at SAS)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #1:
When teams on alternate streaks of at least four games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 31-66 SU but 53-44 ATS (54.6%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): WASHINGTON (+6.5 vs TOR)

NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 66-16 SU and 47-33-2 ATS (58.8%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (*if they become -7.5-point favorites or more versus WSH, -6.5 currently*) 

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning OR losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 222-273-3 ATS (44.8%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 27-127 SU and 64-85-5 ATS (43%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+6.5 vs. TOR), BROOKLYN (+3 at CHA)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHILADELPHIA +9 (+2.9)
2. SAN ANTONIO +4 (+2.3)
3. NEW ORLEANS +1.5 (+1.7) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW YORK -2.5 (+1.6)
2. CHARLOTTE -3 (+0.8)
3. MINNESOTA -1.5 (+0.3) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHILADELPHIA +9 (+2.0)
2. NEW ORLEANS +1.5 (+1.7)
3. DETROIT +7 (+1.2) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLEVELAND -7 (+1.9)
2. TORONTO -6.5 (+1.4)
3. BOSTON -14.5 (+1.0) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLE-MIA OVER 226.5 (+1.2)
2. DEN-NYK OVER 243 (+0.9)
3. DAL-NOP OVER 233.5 (+0.3) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1(tie). CHI-BOS UNDER 231 (-2.3)
MIN-PHX UNDER 217.5 (-2.3)
3. BKN-CHA UNDER 205.5 (-1.6) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. WASHINGTON +6.5 (+3.3)
2. SAN ANTONIO +4 (+3.0)
3. PHILADELPHIA +9 (+2.0) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOSTON -14.5 (+2.8)
2. CLEVELAND -7 (+2.6)
3. INDIANA -7 (+0.5) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLE-MIA OVER 226.5 (+4.0)
2. BKN-CHA OVER 205.5 (+3.6)
3. LAC-SAS OVER 220.5 (+1.9) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHI-BOS UNDER 231 (-4.8)
2. DET-IND UNDER 230.5 (-2.5)
3. DEN-NYK UNDER 243 (-2.2)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(501) DETROIT at (502) INDIANA
* Over the total is 11-2 in the last 13 of the DET-IND divisional rivalry at Indiana
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(503) TORONTO at (504) WASHINGTON
* TORONTO is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 games when visiting Washington
Trend Match: PLAY TORONTO ATS 

(505) BROOKLYN at (506) CHARLOTTE
* Road times are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 of the BKN-CHA series
Trend Match: PLAY BROOKLYN ATS 

(509) SACRAMENTO at (510) PHILADELPHIA
* PHILADELPHIA is 7-2-1 ATS in last 10 of the SAC-PHI non-conference series
Trend Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA ATS 

(511) CLEVELAND at (512) MIAMI
* MIAMI is 5-1 ATS in the last six games versus Cleveland
Trend Match: PLAY MIAMI ATS 

(513) CHICAGO at (514) BOSTON
* CHICAGO is 6-1 ATS in the last seven visits to Boston
Trend Match: PLAY CHICAGO ATS 

(515) LA CLIPPERS at (516) SAN ANTONIO
* Favorites are 11-3 ATS in the last 14 of the LAC-SAS series
Trend Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS ATS 

(517) DALLAS at (518) NEW ORLEANS
* Over the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the DAL-NOP divisional rivalry at New Orleans
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(519) MINNESOTA at (520) PHOENIX
* Over the total is 5-1 in the last six of the MIN-PHX series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(521) OKLAHOMA CITY at (522) GOLDEN STATE
* Over the total is 9-1 in the last 10 of the OKC-GSW series, but did go Under the last game
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total

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