Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Wednesday, March 12, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AI’s Takes of the Day
Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting January 30th: 45-33-1 (57.7%). Here are today’s results:
– PHILADELPHIA (+3.5 at TOR)
PHI scheduling trend, team strength system #2, and two Makinen ratings projections all favor PHI
– CHA-ATL OVER 236
DK Betting Splits System #13 and recent head-to-head trend favor Over
AJ’s Angles
These are the top trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 287-225 SU but 227-270-15 ATS (45.7%) over the last six seasons. The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 40-66-1 ATS (37.7%).
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-4 vs. MIN)
* LA CLIPPERS are on extended runs of 10-2 ATS in the last 12 overall meetings with MIA and 10-1 ATS in last 11 playing at Miami
Trend Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (+2.5 at MIA)
* UTAH is 14-23 SU but 28-9 ATS in its last 37 3rd Straight Road games
Trend Match (PLAY): UTAH (+12 at MEM)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
– Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
– Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 129-109 ATS (54.2%) over the last 2+ seasons. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, TORONTO, MIAMI, DENVER
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): UTAH, NEW YORK
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, SAN ANTONIO, MIAMI, UTAH
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning the number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 70-104 ATS (40.2%), well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, MIAMI, NEW YORK
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last 2+ seasons, they are just 105-120 ATS, good for 46.7%. This is over a 5% drop off compared to the overall majority figures.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA, TORONTO, SAN ANTONIO, DENVER
These last three systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NONE YET TODAY
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: There has been some decent success for the number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 282-242 (53.8%) for +15.8 units and an ROI of +3% since January 2023.
System Match (PLAY OVER): CHA-ATL
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of ’23 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY OVER): LAC-MIA
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Teams playing on 3rd Straight Home game were 89-45 SU and 78-51-5 ATS (60.5%) hosting teams playing a A2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
3/12: MIAMI vs. LA Clippers
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-2.5 vs. LAC)
* Host teams playing a 4th Straight Home are 42-21 SU and 42-20-1 ATS (67.7%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
3/12: MIAMI vs. LA Clippers
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-2.5 vs. LAC)
* Over the total was 98-83 (54.1%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on an A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4th in 6 Days game.
3/12: Over the total in LA CLIPPERS-MIAMI
System Match (PLAY OVER): LAC-MIA (o/u at 208)
* DALLAS is 13-6 SU and 15-4 ATS since the start of last season when playing on the road in its 3rd Game in 4 Days
3/12: DALLAS at San Antonio
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+6 at SAS)
* LA CLIPPERS are on a 21-27 SU and 15-33 ATS skid in its last 48 tries playing a 3rd in 4 days game
3/12: Fade LA CLIPPERS at Miami
Trend Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS (+2.5 at MIA)
* MIAMI is on an 11-11 SU but 9-13 ATS skid playing at home in a 4th in 6 Days game
3/12: Fade MIAMI vs. LA Clippers
Trend Match (FADE): MIAMI (-2.5 vs. LAC)
* PHILADELPHIA is an impressive 40-34 SU and 45-28-1 ATS in its last 74 road games when playing on standard One Day Rest
3/12: PHILADELPHIA at Toronto
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+3.5 at TOR)
* PORTLAND is 33-68 SU and 40-61 ATS since 2020-21 when playing at home on One Day Rest
3/12: Fade PORTLAND vs. New York
Trend Match (FADE): PORTLAND (+4 vs. NYK)
* TORONTO is on a 33-21 SU and 33-20-1 ATS run when playing a 3rd Straight Home game
3/12: TORONTO vs. Philadelphia
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-3.5 vs. PHI)
* UTAH is 14-23 SU BUT 28-9 ATS in its last 37 3rd Straight Road games
3/12: UTAH at Memphis
Trend Match (PLAY): UTAH (+12 at MEM)
* UTAH is on a 48-25 Over the total run when playing on the road with One Day Rest
3/12: Over the total in UTAH-MEMPHIS
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-MEM (o/u at 247)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 148-52 SU and 120-79-1 ATS (60.3%) run.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (*if they fall into this line range vs OKC, -3 currently)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 107-73 SU and 108-69-3 ATS (61%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+3.5 at TOR)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 104-86 (54.7%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 204-166 (55.1%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 264-205 (56.3%).
System Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-MEM (o/u at 247)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.
135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 241-131 SU, but 170-194-8 ATS (46.7%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is 33-34-1 ATS.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): DENVER (-4 vs. MIN)
Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
Since the start of the 2018-19 season, NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing, going 124-127 SU but 130-106-5 ATS (55.1%), including 92-56-1 ATS when installed as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-6 vs. DAL)
Close wins haven’t provided momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 269-141 SU but just 176-221-13 ATS (44.3%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): MEMPHIS (-12 vs. UTA)
Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 287-225 SU but 227-270-15 ATS (45.7%) over the last 6 seasons. The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 40-66-1 ATS (37.7%).
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-4 vs MIN)
Divisional upsets can create urgency
NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 98-60 SU and 93-62-3 ATS (60%) in that follow-up try over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-6 vs. DAL)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 276-294 SU and 253-309-8 ATS (45%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA (+4 at DEN), PHOENIX (+4.5 at HOU), NEW YORK (-4 at POR), DENVER (-4 vs. MIN)
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going 311-288 SU but 269-311-17 ATS (46.4%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA (+4 at DEN), PHOENIX (+4.5 at HOU), NEW YORK (-4 at POR)
NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 155-171 SU and 147-170-9 ATS (46.4%) in that next contest over the last six seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA (+4 at DEN), PHOENIX (+4.5 at HOU), NEW YORK (-4 at POR)
Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well in the next contest as well, going 151-100 SU and 144-100-7 ATS (59%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-3.5 vs. PHI), HOUSTON (-4.5 vs. PHX)
Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 187-74 SU and 138-120-3 ATS (53.5%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (-12 vs. UTA)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA CLIPPERS +2.5 (+2.8)
2. PHILADELPHIA +3.5 (+1.4)
3. UTAH +12 (+1.0)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. HOUSTON -4.5 (+0.3)
2. BOSTON -2 (+0.1)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA CILPPERS +2.5 (+1.7)
2. CHARLOTTE +8.5 (+1.5)
3. PHOENIX +4.5 (+0.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MEMPHIS -12 (+1.9)
2. DENVER -4 (+0.7)
3. NEW YORK -4 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DAL-SAS OVER 236.5 (+0.6)
2. OKC-BOS OVER 228.5 (+0.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIN-DEN UNDER 234 (-3.7)
2. PHI-TOR UNDER 222 (-1.1)
3. LAC-MIA UNDER 208 (-0.7)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA CLIPPERS +2.5 (+5.4)
2. PHILADELPHIA +3.5 (+2.0)
3. CHARLOTTE +8.5 (+1.1)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DENVER -4 (+1.2)
2. NEW YORK -4 (+1.1)
3. BOSTON -2 (+0.7)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIN-DEN OVER 234 (+5.1)
2. LAC-MIA OVER 208 (+0.8)
3. OKC-BOS OVER 228.5 (+0.7)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NYK-POR UNDER 228 (-1.5)
2. PHX-HOU UNDER 229 (-1.4)
3. UTA-MEM UNDER 247 (-1.3)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(565) OKLAHOMA CITY at (566) BOSTON
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 games versus Boston
Trend Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY ATS
* Over the total is 5-1 in the last six head-to-head matchups between OKC and BOS in Boston
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total
(567) CHARLOTTE at (568) ATLANTA
* Over the total is 11-2-1 in the last 14 of CHA-ATL head-to-head rivalry in Atlanta
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total
* Underdogs are 14-4 ATS in head-to-head divisional series since 2021
Trend Match: PLAY CHARLOTTE ATS
(569) PHILADELPHIA at (570) TORONTO
* Over the total is 5-1 in the last six of PHI-TOR head-to-head matchups at Toronto
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total
(571) DALLAS at (572) SAN ANTONIO
* DALLAS is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 head-to-head games versus SAS
Trend Match: PLAY DALLAS ATS
(573) PHOENIX at (574) HOUSTON
* Underdogs are 6-1 ATS in the last seven of PHX-HOU head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY PHOENIX ATS
(575) LA CLIPPERS at (576) MIAMI
* LA CLIPPERS are on extended runs of 10-2 ATS in the last 12 overall meetings with MIA and 10-1 ATS in the last 11 playing at Miami
Trend Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS ATS
(579) MINNESOTA at (580) DENVER
* Underdogs are 12-3 ATS in the last 15 of the MIN-DEN head-to-head divisional rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS
(581) NEW YORK at (582) PORTLAND
* Under the total is 6-2 in the last eight of the NYK-POR head-to-head non-conference series at Portland
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
