Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Wednesday, March 19, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AI’s Takes of the Day
Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting January 30th: 52-42-1 (55.3%). Here are today’s results:
– DETROIT (-5 at MIA)
Two DK Betting Splits systems, extreme stat system #16, and recent head-to-head trend all favor DET + scheduling situation and streak system #8 fade MIA
– NYK-SAS OVER 227.5
DK Betting Splits system #13, both Makinen ratings projections and recent head-to-head trend all favor Over
– DENVER (-2 at LAL)
Two DK Betting Splits systems, Makinen Effective Strength ratings projections, and recent head-to-head trend all favor DEN and scheduling situation fades LAL
AJ’s Angles
These are the top trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Over the total was 37-22 (62.7%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on 2 Days Rest and the road team was playing a 3rd Road in 4 Days game.
System Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-OKC (o/u at 226.5)
* Teams reaching winning OR losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 243-297-3 ATS (45%) in the next outing since 2020.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (-2.5 at ORL), MIAMI (+5 vs DET), UTAH (-5 vs. WSH)
* DETROIT has dominated head-to-head series vs. MIA recently, 12-2 ATS in the last 14 overall and 7-0-1 ATS in the last eight visits to Miami
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-5 at MIA)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
– Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
– Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON, DETROIT, NEW YORK, CHICAGO, CLEVELAND, DENVER
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 70-104 ATS (40.2%), well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON, INDIANA, NEW YORK, OKLAHOMA CITY, UTAH, CHICAGO, CLEVELAND
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, MINNESOTA, DENVER
These last four systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): WSH-UTA, CLE-SAC, MEM-POR
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 282-242 (53.8%) for +15.8 units and an ROI of +3% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – NOP-MIN, NYK-SAS, CLE-SAC
UNDER – DAL-IND, CHI-PHX, MEM-POR
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): HOU-ORL, DET-MIA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 136-102 (57.1%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-SAC
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 60-43 SU but 44-59 ATS (42.7%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Road in 4 Days game over the last four seasons.
3/19: Fade OKLAHOMA CITY vs. Philadelphia
Systems Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-11.5 vs. PHI)
* Under the total was 125-99-1 (55.8%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on OneDayRest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
3/19: Under the total in LA LAKERS-DENVER
3/19: Under the total in PORTLAND-MEMPHIS
3/19: Under the total in MINNESOTA-NEW ORLEANS
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): DEN-LAL (o/u at 232.5), MEM-POR (o/u at 236.5), NOP-MIN (o/u at 228)
* Over the total was 37-22 (62.7%) over last two seasons when the home team was on 2 Days Rest and the road team was playing a 3rd Road in 4 Days game.
3/19: Over the total in OKLAHOMA CITY-PHILADELPHIA
System Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-OKC (o/u at 226.5)
* LA LAKERS are on a 21-31 SU and 21-30-1 ATS skid in the last 52 playing a 3rd in 4 days game
3/19: Fade LA LAKERS vs. Denver
Trend Match (FADE): LA LAKERS (+2 vs. DEN)
* MIAMI is on an 11-12 SU but 9-14 ATS skid playing at home in a 4th in 6 Days game
3/19: FADE MIAMI vs. Detroit
Trend Match (FADE): MIAMI (+4.5 vs. DET)
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 33-19 SU and 32-18-2 ATS in its last 52 games playing on 2 Days Rest
3/19: OKLAHOMA CITY vs. Philadelphia
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-11.5 vs. PHI)
* PHILADELPHIA is an impressive 41-35 SU and 46-29-1 ATS in its last 76 road games when playing on standard One Day Rest
3/19: PHILADELPHIA at Oklahoma City
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+11.5 at OKC)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 108-74 SU and 109-70-3 ATS (60.9%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (*if they fall into this line range at UTA, +5 currently*)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 244-45 SU but just 134-149-6 ATS (47.3%) over the last four seasons.
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE ALL ATS): INDIANA (-10.5 vs. DAL), OKLAHOMA CITY (-11.5 vs. PHI)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 106-88 (54.6%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 208-167 (55.5%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 266-209 (56%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): DAL-IND (o/u at 234.5), NOP-MIN (o/u at 228), PHI-OKC (o/u at 226.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.
135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 241-132 SU but 170-195-8 ATS (46.6%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is 33-35-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-2.5 at ORL)
Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams, off of a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored, have gone 149-90 SU but 108-127-4 ATS (46%) in the follow-up contest over the last 6 seasons. Included among this is a 91-112 ATS mark when not playing the next day.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-2.5 at ORL)
Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 291-226 SU but 229-273-15 ATS (45.6%) over the last six seasons. The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 40-67-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): PHOENIX (-6 vs. CHI)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 305-257 (54.3%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NOP-MIN (o/u at 228)
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 281-299 SU and 256-316-8 ATS (44.8%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): PHOENIX (-6 vs. CHI)
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going 319-292 SU but 274-318-17 ATS (46.3%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (-2.5 at ORL), PHOENIX (-6 vs. CHI), PHILADELPHIA (+11.5 at OKC), SACRAMENTO (+5 vs. CLE)
NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 159-174 SU and 150-174-9 ATS (46.3%) in that next contest over the last six seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (-2.5 at ORL), PHILADELPHIA (+11.5 at OKC)
Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing and are on a 178-147 SU and 183-133-9 ATS (57.9%) run.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-9 at SAS)
Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 153-100 SU and 146-100-7 ATS (59.3%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-5 at MIA), PHOENIX (-6 vs. CHI)
Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 189-74 SU and 139-121-3 ATS (53.5%) over the last four seasons.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (-2.5 at ORL), MEMPHIS (-4.5 at POR)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 2.8% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (197-219 ATS, 47.4%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (272-270 ATS, 50.2%) over the last four seasons.
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE): UTAH (-5 vs. WSH)
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 243-297-3 ATS (45%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 30-133 SU and 70-88-5 ATS (44.3%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (-2.5 at ORL), MIAMI (+5 vs. DET), UTAH (-5 vs. WSH)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAN ANTONIO +9 (+3.4)
2. ORLANDO +2 (+2.3)
3. PORTLAND +4.5 (+1.9)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OKLAHOMA CITY -11.5 (+3.9)
2. CLEVELAND -5 (+2.9)
3. MINNESOTA -13 (+2.5)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAN ANTONIO +9 (+9.3)
2. DALLAS +10.5 (+5.1)
3. ORLANDO +2 (+2.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OKLAHOMA CITY -11.5 (+2.7)
2. DENVER -2 (+2.6)
3. MEMPHIS -4.5 (+1.6)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NYK-SAS OVER 227.5 (+4.4)
2. WSH-UTA OVER 235 (+0.9)
3. PHI-OKC OVER 226.5 (+0.3)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DAL-IND UNDER 234.5 (-2.6)
2. DET-MIA UNDER 218 (-1.6)
3. CHI-PHX UNDER 235.5 (-1.3)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ORLANDO +2 (+5.3)
2. SAN ANTONIO +9 (+2.0)
3. PORTLAND +4.5 (+1.5)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OKLAHOMA CITY -11.5 (+4.8)
2. INDIANA -10.5 (+2.8)
3. CLEVELAND -5 (+2.4)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NYK-SAS OVER 227.5 (+7.4)
2. NOP-MIN OVER 228 (+4.5)
3. PHI-OKC OVER 226.5 (+2.2)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DAL-IND UNDER 234.5 (-5.8)
2. DET-MIA UNDER 218 (-3.8)
3. WSH-UTA UNDER 235 (-3.1)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(529) HOUSTON at (530) ORLANDO
* Favorites are 7-2 ATS in the last nine of the HOU-ORL head-to-head non-conference series at Orlando
Trend Match: PLAY HOUSTON ATS
(533) DETROIT at (534) MIAMI
* DETROIT has dominated head-to-head series vs. MIA recently, 12-2 ATS in the last 14 overall and 7-0-1 ATS in the last eight visits to Miami
Trend Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS
(537) NEW YORK at (538) SAN ANTONIO
* Over the total is 11-1-1 in the last 13 of the NYK-SAS head-to-head non-conference series at San Antonio
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total
(539) PHILADELPHIA at (540) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Road teams are 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 of the PHI-OKC head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA ATS
(541) WASHINGTON at (542) UTAH
* Over the total is 8-2-2 in the last 12 head-to-head meetings between WSH and UTA
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total
(545) CLEVELAND at (546) SACRAMENTO
* SACRAMENTO is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 head-to-head games versus CLE
Trend Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO ATS
(547) MEMPHIS at (548) PORTLAND
* Road teams are 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 of the MEM-POR head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY MEMPHIS ATS
* Under the total is 8-2 in the last 10 of the head-to-head series at Portland
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(549) DENVER at (550) LA LAKERS
* Road teams are 12-3 ATS in the last 15 of the DEN-LAL head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY DENVER ATS
