The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Wednesday, November 13, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* Road teams are 11-1 ATS in the NOP-OKC series since 2022
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+14.5 at OKC) 

* Under the total was 12-1 (92.3%) last season when the home team was playing its 3rd Home in 4 Days and the road team was playing a 2 Days Rest game.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-ORL (o/u at 223.5) 

NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 120-88 SU and 117-88-3 ATS (57.1%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY ALL): MEMPHIS (+6.5 at LAL), MILWAUKEE (-6.5 vs DET) 

NBA teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 46-65-1 ATS (41.4%) in the next game, including 21-35 ATS (37.5%) on the road over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE): CLEVELAND (-9 at PHI)

Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 183-33 SU but just 98-115-3 ATS (46%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches (FADE): SAN ANTONIO (-10 vs. WSH) 

* OKLAHOMA CITY is 21-6 Over the total in its last 27 3rd Straight Home games
System Match (PLAY OVER): NOP-OKC (o/u at 223.5) 

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic NBA betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, LA CLIPPERS, MINNESOTA, PHOENIX 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, CHICAGO, LA CLIPPERS, MILWAUKEE, LA LAKERS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, OKLAHOMA CITY, LA CLIPPERS, LA LAKERS 

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too: 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 782-357 over the last 1-1/2 seasons but for -131.98 units and an ROI of -11.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 571-358 but for +23.75 units and an ROI of +2.6%. This 14.2% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – NEW YORK ML, MILWAUKEE ML, SAN ANTONIO ML, LA LAKERS ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority money line handle was on a team in a divisional matchup last season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on handle for +30 units, an ROI of 11.5%. This ROI is a notable improvement over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON ML, MILWAUKEE ML, MINNESOTA ML, PHOENIX ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for a money line wager over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has done well, going 86-138 but for +19.67 units and an ROI of +8.8%. It takes patience to wager something that wins only 38% of the time, but the reward is there.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA ML, NEW ORLEANS ML, LA CLIPPERS ML, PHOENIX ML 

These last four systems involve totals. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): IND-ORL, NOP-OKC, DET-MIL 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – WSH-SAS, MEM-LAL
UNDER – CHI-NYK 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – BOS-BKN, CLE-PHI, DET-MIL, LAC-HOU

DK NBA Betting Splits system #16: Majority Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 106-71 (59.9%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): NOP-OKC 

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following NBA betting trends are an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Teams playing on 3rd Straight Home game were 67-33 SU and 59-37-4 ATS (61.5%) hosting teams playing an A2A b2b game over the last two seasons.

11/13: PORTLAND vs. Minnesota
System Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (+9.5 vs. MIN) 

* Road teams playing an A2A b2b game are 26-37 SU BUT 36-27-2 ATS (57.1%) facing hosts playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game over the last four seasons.
11/13: MINNESOTA at Portland
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-9.5 at POR) 

* Home teams playing in a 3rd Home in 4 Days game scenario were 24-17 SU and 25-15-1 ATS (62.5%) since the start of last season hosting teams a 3rd in 4 Days game.
11/13: MILWAUKEE vs. Detroit
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-6.5 vs. DET)

11/13: PORTLAND vs. Minnesota
System Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (+9.5 vs. MIN)

* Hosts playing in an A2H b2b game scenario are 16-27 SU and 15-27-1 ATS (35.7%) since the start of last season hosting teams playing on One Day Rest.
11/13: FADE NEW YORK vs. Chicago
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (-8.5 vs. CHI)

* UNDER the total was 102-71-1 (59%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
11/13: UNDER the total in PHILADELPHIA-CLEVELAND
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-PHI (o/u at 218.5)

11/13: UNDER the total in OKLAHOMA CITY-NEW ORLEANS
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NOP-OKC (o/u at 223.5) 

* OVER the total was 80-66 (54.8%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on an A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4th in 6 Days game.
11/13: OVER the total in MINNESOTA-PORTLAND
System Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-POR (o/u at 220.5)

11/13: OVER the total in PHOENIX-SACRAMENTO
System Match (PLAY OVER): PHX-SAC (o/u at 225.5) 

* OVER the total was 36-25 (59%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing an A2A b2b game.
11/13: OVER the total in PORTLAND-MINNESOTA
System Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-POR (o/u at 220.5) 

* OVER the total was 43-36 (54.4%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
11/13: OVER the total in BROOKLYN-BOSTON
System Match (PLAY OVER): BOS-BKN (o/u at 217.5)

* OVER the total is 28-15 (65.1%) since the start of last season when the home team was on A2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
11/13: OVER the total in NEW YORK-CHICAGO
System Match (PLAY OVER): CHI-NYK (o/u at 231.5) 

* UNDER the total was 12-1 (92.3%) last season when the home team was playing its 3rd Home in 4 Days and the road team was playing a 2 Days Rest game.
11/13: UNDER the total in ORLANDO-INDIANA
System Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-ORL (o/u at 223.5) 

The following are 40 of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* OKLAHOMA CITY is on an 18-2 SU and 16-4 ATS surge when playing 4th Straight Home game
11/13: OKLAHOMA CITY vs. New Orleans
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-14.5 vs. NOP)

* WASHINGTON is on 10-7 SU and 12-4 ATS run on the ROAD in the 3rd in 4 Days game scenario
11/13: WASHINGTON at San Antonio
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+10 at SAS) 

* MINNESOTA is on a 16-3 OVER the total run when playing on the back end of a A2A b2b scheduling scenario
11/13: OVER the total in MINNESOTA-PORTLAND
System Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-POR (o/u at 220.5)

* OKLAHOMA CITY is 21-6 OVER the total in its last 27 3rd Straight Home games
11/13: OVER the total in OKLAHOMA CITY-NEW ORLEANS
System Match (PLAY OVER): NOP-OKC (o/u at 223.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 134-47 SU and 109-71-1 ATS (60.6%) run.
System Matches (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-6.5 vs. MEM)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 183-33 SU but just 98-115-3 ATS (46%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches (FADE): SAN ANTONIO (-10 vs. WSH)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the L4 seasons, depending upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 86-72 (54.4%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 161-140 (53.5%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 227-162 (58.4%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): NOP-OKC (o/u at 223.5), WSH-SAS (o/u at 224)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

Fade teams off of overtime games
Teams that played in an overtime game the prior day are on a 51-84 SU and 55-76-4 ATS (42%) slide, including 26-45-2 ATS in the last 73 games and 17-32 ATS when a pick ’em or favorite.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (+6.5 at MIL) 

Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 255-200 SU but 197-246-12 ATS (44.5%) over the last 6 seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 35-63 ATS (35.7%).
System Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO (-10 vs. WSH), PORTLAND (+9.5 vs. MIN) 

Divisional upsets can create urgency
NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 93-56 SU and 89-58-2 ATS (60.5%) in that follow-up try over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-9.5 at POR)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 236-251 SU and 216-265-6 ATS (44.9%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE ALL): LA CLIPPERS (+5 at HOU), PORTLAND (+9.5 vs. MIN)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 249-239 SU and 220-255-11 ATS (46.3%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE ALL): INDIANA (+1 at ORL), LA CLIPPERS (+5 at HOU), SAN ANTONIO (-10 vs. WSH)

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 129-151 SU and 127-146-7 ATS (46.5%) in that next contest over the last six seasons.
System Match (FADE ALL): INDIANA (+1 at ORL), LA CLIPPERS (+5 at HOU)

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 120-88 SU and 117-88-3 ATS (57.1%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY ALL): MEMPHIS (+6.5 at LAL), MILWAUKEE (-6.5 vs. DET)

Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 153-57 SU and 116-91-3 ATS (56%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY (-14.5 vs. NOP), SACRAMENTO (-7.5 vs. PHX) 

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 55-15 SU and 42-26-2 ATS (61.8%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-9 at PHI)

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 3.8% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (165-185 ATS, 47.1%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (224-216 ATS, 50.9%) over the last four seasons.
System Matches: FADE WASHINGTON (+10 at SAS)
SLIGHT PLAY NEW ORLEANS (+14.5 at OKC) 

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 197-245-1 ATS (44.6%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 26-109 SU and 58-74-3 ATS (43.9%).
System Matches (FADE): CLEVELAND (-9 at PHI)

NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams reaching an eight game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 46-65-1 ATS (41.4%) in the next game, including 21-35 ATS (37.5%) on the road over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE): CLEVELAND (-9 at PHI)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHILADELPHIA +9 (+2.4)
2. BROOKLYN +8.5 (+1.5)
3. ORLANDO +1 (+1.1) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAN ANTONIO -9.5 (+1.5)
2. SACRAMENTO -7.5 (+0.6)
3. HOUSTON -4.5 (+0.2)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DETROIT +6 (+5.6)
2. PORTLAND +9.5 (+5.3)
3. PHILADELPHIA +9 (+3.1) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OKLAHOMA CITY -14.5 (+2.2)
2. SACRAMENTO -7.5 (+0.9) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHX-SAC OVER 225.5 (+2.5)
2. MIN-POR OVER 220.5 (+1.9)
3. CLE-PHI OVER 218.5 (+1.8) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHI-NYK UNDER 231.5 (-3.3)
2. IND-ORL UNDER 223.5 (-1.5)
3. WSH-SAS UNDER 224 (-0.9) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHILADELPHIA +9 (+5.6)
2. NEW ORLEANS +14.5 (+1.4)
3. ORLANDO +1 (+1.2)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA LAKERS -6.5 (+2.1)
2. SACRAMENTO -7.5 (+1.1)
3. SAN ANTONIO -9.5 (+0.7) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHX-SAC OVER 225.5 (+3.9)
2. MIN-POR OVER 220.5 (+3.8)
3. LAC-HOU OVER 214 (+1.9) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLE-PHI UNDER 218.5 (-2.9)
2. NOP-OKC UNDER 223.5 (-2.3)
3. CHI-NYK UNDER 231.5 (-1.7) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(551) BOSTON at (552) BROOKLYN
* BOSTON is 7-0-1 ATS in the last eight visits to Brooklyn
System Match: PLAY BOSTON ATS 

(555) NEW ORLEANS at (556) OKLAHOMA CITY
* ROAD TEAMS are 11-1 ATS in the NOP-OKC series since 2022
System Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS ATS 

(557) CLEVELAND at (558) PHILADELPHIA
* OVER the total is 5-1 in the CLE-PHI series since 2023
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(561) WASHINGTON at (562) SAN ANTONIO
* OVER the total is on an extended 13-4 run in the WSH-SAS nonconference series
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(563) LA CLIPPERS at (564) HOUSTON
* UNDER the total is 7-2 in the last nine meetings between LAC and HOU
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(565) MEMPHIS at (566) LA LAKERS
* OVER the total has converted in all five MEM-LAL meetings since the start of last season
System Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(567) MINNESOTA at (568) PORTLAND
* OVER the total is 7-1 in the last eight of the MIN-POR rivalry in Portland
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(569) PHOENIX at (570) SACRAMENTO
* SACRAMENTO is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings with Phoenix
System Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO ATS

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