The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Wednesday, November 20, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board. 

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

Favorites have covered 10 straight ATS in the ATL-GSW nonconference series
Trend Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (-8 vs. ATL) 

NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 69-24 SU and 60-32-1 ATS (65.2%).
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-3 at MEM) 

NEW ORLEANS is on a 14-1 Under the total run when playing on the back end of an A2A b2b scheduling scenario
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NOP-CLE (o/u at 221)

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 237-253 SU and 217-267-6 ATS (44.8%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO (+8.5 at MIL), NEW YORK (-5 at PHX)

Under the total was 104-73-1 (58.8%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
System Match (PLAY UNDER ALL): PHI-MEM (o/u at 222.5), ORL-LAC (o/u at 206) 

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic NBA betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PORTLAND, PHILADELPHIA, NEW YORK, ORLANDO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE, PHILADELPHIA, PORTLAND, NEW YORK

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January ‘23, this “super” majority group has gone just 60-86 ATS (41.1%), well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE): CLEVELAND

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, HOUSTON, PHILADELPHIA, NEW YORK, GOLDEN STATE, ORLANDO

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 782-357 over the last 1-1/2 seasons but for -131.98 units and an ROI of -11.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 571-358 but for +23.75 units and an ROI of +2.6%. This 14.2% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – MILWAUKEE ML, CLEVELAND ML, HOUSTON ML, GOLDEN STATE ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority money line handle was on a team in a divisional matchup last season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on the handle for +30 units, an ROI of 11.5%. This ROI is a notable improvement over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE ML, PORTLAND ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for a money line wager over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has done well, going 86-138 but for +19.67 units and an ROI of +8.8%. It takes patience to wager something that wins only 38% of the time, but the reward is there.
System Matches (PLAY): PORTLAND ML

These last four systems involve totals. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CHI-MIL, NOP-CLE, PHI-MEM

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for the number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): ATL-GSW 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY OVER): ORL-LAC 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #16: Majority Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 106-71 (59.9%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): PHI-MEM

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following NBA betting trends are an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long! 

* Home teams playing a H2H b2b game were 36-34 SU and 41-28-1 ATS (59.4%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last two seasons.
11/20: MEMPHIS vs. Philadelphia
System Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (+3 vs. PHI)

* Under the total was 104-73-1 (58.8%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
11/20: Under the total in MEMPHIS-PHILADELPHIA
System Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-MEM (o/u at 222.5)

11/20: Under the total in LA CLIPPERS-ORLANDO
System Match (PLAY UNDER): ORL-LAC (o/u at 206)

* Over the total was 81-69 (54%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on an A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4th in 6 Days game.
11/20: Over the total in NEW ORLEANS-CLEVELAND
System Match (PLAY OVER): NOP-CLE (o/u at 221)

* Over the total was 83-57 (59.3%) over the last four seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the opponent was playing a 3rd Straight Road game.
11/20: Over the total in MEMPHIS-PHILADELPHIA
System Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-MEM (o/u at 222.5)

* Over the total was 26-17 (60.5%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on an A2H b2b and the road team was playing on 2 Days Rest.
11/20: Over the total in OKLAHOMA CITY-PORTLAND
System Match (PLAY OVER): POR-OKC (o/u at 223)

The following are 40 of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

* ATLANTA is on 7-31 SU and 8-29-1 ATS skid when playing on the road in its 3rd Game in 4 Days
11/20: FADE ATLANTA at Golden State
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+8 at GSW) 

* LA CLIPPERS are on a 15-23 SU and 9-29 ATS skid in its last 38 tries playing a 3rd in 4 days game
11/20: FADE LA CLIPPERS vs. Orlando
System Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS (+3 vs. ORL) 

* MILWAUKEE is on a 32-36 SU and 21-46-1 ATS skid in last 68 when playing on standard One Day Rest
11/20: FADE MILWAUKEE vs. Chicago
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-8.5 vs CHI)

* NEW YORK is on 23-20 SU and 28-15 ATS run on the road in the 3rd in 4 Days game scenario
11/20: NEW YORK at Phoenix
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-5 at PHX) 

* PHILADELPHIA is an impressive 36-26 SU and 40-22 ATS in its last 62 road games when playing on standard One Day Rest
11/20: PHILADELPHIA at Memphis
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-3 at MEM) 

* ATLANTA is 43-20 OVER the total since 2022 when playing a 4th in 6 Days game
11/20: Over the total in ATLANTA-GOLDEN STATE
System Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-GSW (o/u at 239)

* NEW ORLEANS is on a 14-1 Under the total run when playing on the back end of an A2A b2b scheduling scenario
11/20: Under the total in NEW ORLEANS-CLEVELAND
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NOP-CLE (o/u at 221) 

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 69-24 SU and 60-32-1 ATS (65.2%).
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-3 at MEM)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 183-33 SU but just 98-115-3 ATS (46%) over the last three seasons.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-13.5 vs. NOP)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 89-77 (53.6%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 161-140 (53.5%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 231-164 (58.5%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER – NOP-CLE (o/u at 221)
PLAY UNDER – POR-OKC (o/u at 223)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

Favorites flush low-scoring totals quickly
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 134-49 SU and 111-70-2 ATS (61.3%) in their last 183 tries.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-3 at MEM)

Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 245-130 SU but just 158-205-12 ATS (43.5%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-8.5 vs CHI)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 237-253 SU and 217-267-6 ATS (44.8%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO (+8.5 at MIL), NEW YORK (-5 at PHX)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 255-243 SU and 223-262-11 ATS (46%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO (+8.5 at MIL), NEW YORK (-5 at PHX) 

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 130-154 SU and 129-148-7 ATS (46.6%) in that next contest over the last six seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO (+8.5 at MIL), NEW YORK (-5 at PHX) 

Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams that coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 164-137 SU and 168-124-9 ATS (57.5%) run.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-12 vs. POR) 

Unusual defensive performances
Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 157-57 SU and 119-92-3 ATS (56.4%) over the last 4 seasons.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-13.5 vs NOP)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 3.6% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (168-188 ATS, 47.2%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (225-218 ATS, 50.8%) over the last four seasons.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-3 at MEM), PHOENIX (+5 vs. NYK)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MEMPHIS +3 (+2.2)
2. CHICAGO +8.5 (+1.2)
3. PORTLAND +12 (+0.7) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLEVELAND -13.5 (+2.0)
2. NEW YORK -5 (+1.7)
3. GOLDEN STATE -8 (+0.3) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHICAGO +8.5 (+2.7)
2. MEMPHIS +3 (+1.6)
3. PHOENIX +5 (+0.4) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OKLAHOMA CITY -12 (+4.7)
2. GOLDEN STATE -8 (+2.3)
3. HOUSTON -6.5 (+0.3)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHI-MIL OVER 238.5 (+2.8)
2. ATL-GSW OVER 239 (+2.3)
3. IND-HOU OVER 231.5 (+1.6) 

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHI-MEM UNDER 222.5 (-1.8)
2. POR-OKC UNDER 223 (-0.4) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. INDIANA +6.5 (+2.7)
2. LA CLIPPERS +3 (+1.4) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OKLAHOMA CITY -12 (+2.3)
2. GOLDEN STATE -8 (+1.8)
3. CLEVELAND -13.5 (+1.5) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
CHI-MIL OVER 238.5 (+1.4) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ATL-GSW UNDER 239 (-4.2)
2. IND-HOU UNDER 231.5 (-3.7)
3. ORL-LAC UNDER 206 (-2.9)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(513) CHICAGO at (514) MILWAUKEE
* CHICAGO has covered four of the last five ATS matchups with MIL
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO ATS 

(517) PORTLAND at (518) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Under the total is 6-1 in the POR-OKC series at Oklahoma City since 2021
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total 

(525) ATLANTA at (526) GOLDEN STATE
* Favorites have covered 10 straight ATS in the ATL-GSW nonconference series
System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE ATS 

(527) ORLANDO at (528) LA CLIPPERS
* Under the total is 5-0-1 in the ORL-LAC series at Los Angeles since 2019
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

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