The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Thursday, October 31, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* MEMPHIS has covered eight of the last nine of the series with MIL
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS (+6.5 vs MIL)

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SAS-UTA

In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 92-58 SU and 89-58-3 ATS (60.5%) surge.
System Matches (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (+2 at UTA)

* Under the total was 11-1 (91.7%) last season when the home team was playing its 3rd Home in 4 Days and the road team was playing a 2 Days Rest game.
10/31: Under the total in MEMPHIS-MILWAUKEE
System Match: PLAY UNDER in MIL-MEM (o/u at 232) 

* HOUSTON is 8-30 SU and 11-27 ATS in its last 38 3rd Straight Road games
10/31: FADE HOUSTON at Dallas
System Match: FADE HOUSTON (+6 at DAL) 

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 9:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE, PHOENIX

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January ‘23, this “super” majority group has gone just 60-86 ATS (41.1%), well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these more-rare contests.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too: 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 782-357 over the last 1-1/2 seasons but for -131.98 units and an ROI of -11.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 571-358 but for +23.75 units and an ROI of +2.6%. This 14.2% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL on ML): MILWAUKEE, SAN ANTONIO, PHOENIX

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority money line handle was on a team in a divisional matchup last season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on handle for +30 units, an ROI of 11.5%. This ROI is a notable improvement over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DALLAS ML, PHOENIX ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for a money line wager over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has done well, going 86-138 but for +19.67 units and an ROI of +8.8%. It takes patience to wager something that wins only 38% of the time, but the reward is there.
System Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO ML 

These last two systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SAS-UTA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January ’23.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SAS-UTA 

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!

 * Home teams playing a H2H b2b game were 34-33 SU and 39-28 ATS (58.2%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last two seasons.
10/31: MEMPHIS vs. Milwaukee
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS (+6.5 vs MIL)

* Over the total was 82-55 (59.9%) over the last four seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the opponent was playing a 3rd Straight Road game.
10/31: Over the total in MEMPHIS-MILWAUKEE
System Match: PLAY OVER in MIL-MEM (o/u at 232)

* Under the total was 11-1 (91.7%) last season when the home team was playing its 3rd Home in 4 Days and the road team was playing a 2 Days Rest game.
10/31: Under the total in MEMPHIS-MILWAUKEE
System Match: PLAY UNDER in MIL-MEM (o/u at 232)

* HOUSTON is 8-30 SU and 11-27 ATS in its last 38 3rd Straight Road games
10/31: Fade Houston at Dallas
System Match: FADE HOUSTON (+6 at DAL) 

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 92-58 SU and 89-58-3 ATS (60.5%) surge.
System Matches (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (+2 at UTA)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 67-22 SU and 58-30-1 ATS (65.9%).
System Matches (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-6.5 at MEM)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.

NO QUALIFYING EXTREME STATS SYSTEMS TODAY (plenty tomorrow)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 3.6% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (162-180 ATS, 47.4%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (223-214 ATS, 51%) over the last four seasons.
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE): UTAH (-2 vs. SAS)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MEMPHIS +6.5 (+2.6)
2. SAN ANTONIO +2 (+2.3)
3. HOUSTON +6.5 (+1.0) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MEMPHIS +6.5 (+8.2)
2. HOUSTON +6.5 (+3.2)
3. LA CLIPPERS +4.5 (+2.5) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHX-LAC OVER 221 (+2.2)
2. MIL-MEM OVER 232 (+1.8)
3. HOU-DAL OVER 225.5 (+0.8) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
SAS-UTA UNDER 222 (-0.5)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MEMPHIS +6.5 (+3.8)
2. SAN ANTONIO +2 (+2.2)
3. LA CLIPPERS +4.5 (+1.1) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAS-UTA OVER 222 (+4.1)
2. PHX-LAC OVER 221 (+2.2)
3. MIL-MEM OVER 232 (+1.7)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(563) MILWAUKEE at (564) MEMPHIS
* MEMPHIS has covered eight of the last nine of the series vs. MIL
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS (+6.5 vs. MIL) 

(565) HOUSTON at (566) DALLAS
* Home teams are 6-1 ATS in the last seven of the HOU-DAL rivalry
System Match: PLAY DALLAS (-6 vs. HOU) 

(569) PHOENIX at (570) LA CLIPPERS
* Over the total is 7-2 in the last nine of the PHX-LAC series
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 221)

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