The following NBA betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Saturday, April 27, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic NBA betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): ORLANDO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2-year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY, BOSTON, DENVER

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors enjoyed a strong postseason run this past year in the NBA, going 51-35 ATS on all games, good for 59.3%. You will see in a little while that it wasn’t all success, however, as their money line plays tanked. System #4 will become far more important in April.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, OKLAHOMA CITY, BOSTON, DENVER

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a completely opposite result when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY, DENVER

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Majority handle money line wagerers had a brutal playoff run last year, going 48-39 for -34.6 units and an ROI of -38.4%. This system will be significant starting in April.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND ML, OKLAHOMA CITY ML, BOSTON ML, DENVER ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and an ROI of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a real significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
System Matches (FADE): CLEVELAND ML

This last system involves totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in ALL 4 games today

Naturally being able to predict an upset in a series will give you a leg up on a game-by-game wagering basis as well, but perhaps equally important is being able to find the heavier underdogs that wind up being more competitive than expected and push the favorites to the limit in series. Of course, vice versa can be equally profitable, finding favorites that will sweep through a first-round series easily. Take a look at some of these series trends based on won-lost records at various time lengths of the regular season.

• There is actually a better chance that a #1-#8 or #2-#7 series goes longer if the better seed had a better ATS record in the latter parts of the season. In fact, in 13 of the last 17 series of these seed types that went six or seven games, the better seed had an ever or better ATS record in the last 10 games time period. Watch out for Philadelphia in this scenario, as the 76ers won their final 10 games against the Vegas number. Also, both Chicago and Miami had better last 10 ATS records than Boston and New York.

• The last 10 games outright records can also be an indicator of a #1-#8 or #2-#7 series that could go longer. In ten of the last 17 matchups of those seeds to go six games or longer, the worse seed had an equal or better record in the last 10 games of the regular season. Again, this could be an issue for New York against Philadelphia. The LA Lakers also enjoy this edge over Denver.

• In 12 of the last 13 #4-5 & #3-6 series that ended in upsets (worse-seeded team winning), the teams had overall won-lost records within four games of one another. This is in play for all but the Minnesota-Phoenix series in the West for 2024.

• There has been a significant benchmark in the success of the lower seeded team at 10 wins less than the opponent over the last 10 playoff years. If more than 10 regular season wins separate the teams, only Miami in 2023 has won a series, and the lesser seeds are averaging just 1.26 game wins per series, with eight sweeps in 32 series. Additionally, only four other teams pushed a series to seven games. For 2024, the Celtics are qualifiers.

• When 10 or less wins have separated the teams, the worse-seeded team won an average of 2.313 games per series, including 14 of those 48 series wins. Only six times did a team get swept, and only ten other times did it win just a single game. The #5-#7 seeds in both conferences would appear to have the potential to each win at least two games in their respective series.

• Only four of the last 27 playoff better seeds that won at least four more games against the spread in the regular season have lost a series. The 23 winning teams lost only 1.35 games per series as well. In essence, it is important that teams played well against the spread in the regular season. The Minnesota-Phoenix matchup is the only one that qualifies as of Thursday 4/18.

• Using the records from the second half of the season has also revealed quality underdogs. When the worse-seeded team had an equal or better record in the second half of the season, they won eight of the last 17 series while going 53-48 outright in games. This included series wins by the Knicks and Lakers last year. There are three “underdogs” that hold this edge for 2024, Indiana, Orlando, and Dallas.

• Alternatively, when there were five games or better records in the second half of the season for the better seed, all but one of 35 won their series while going 137-42 SU. Furthermore, only one other of the 35 worse-seeded teams pushed the series to seven games. Of course, the lone winner in this trend was Miami in 2023. Boston will hold this edge over any of its first-round opponents. New York would have it over Philadelphia.

• There is an interesting benchmark for worse-seeded teams at 48 wins (59%+) or more. Those that reach that regular season mark have gone 6-19 in series and 63-84 (42.9%) in individual games over the last 10 postseasons. Those that have 58% or less (47-35 in full season) are just 9-46 in series’ and 91-198 (31.5%) in individual games. All the potential first-round “underdogs” that won 48 games are in the West: New Orleans, LA Lakers, Dallas, and Phoenix.

• Of the last 13 better seed sweeps, all 13 had better records in the second half of the season, only one had a worse record in last 20 games, and only three won fewer of their last 10 games. According to this, Boston and Oklahoma City have the best chance at first round sweeps, as they are the only teams with advantages over their opponents in all three varying time ranges.

First-Round Game Trends by Line/Total Range

• Big favorites have held a significant edge. Since the start of the 2014 playoffs, NBA first round favorites of 8.5 points or more are 85-14 SU and 58-41 ATS (58.6%).
System Matches: PLAY BOSTON (-9 at MIA)

• Bigger road favorites are also a solid bet. Only 10 of the last 52 road favorites of 4.5 points or more have lost outright, going 42-10 SU and 34-17-1 ATS (66.7%).
System Matches: PLAY BOSTON (-9 at BOS)

• First round home favorites of four points or less have proven to be a bad investment lately, as over the last 10 playoff seasons, they are just 39-36 SU and 30-42-1 ATS (41.7%).
System Matches: FADE ORLANDO (-2 vs CLE)

• The last two NBA first-round playoffs saw 49 Unders and 37 Overs (57%). So far in 2024, there have been 12 Unders, 9 Overs.
System Matches: CONSIDER PLAYING UNDER

• With the meteoric rise in scoring over the last few years in the NBA, it is interesting to note that in the lowest totaled first round playoff games over the last five postseasons, 218 or less, Under the total is 61-39-3 (61%). In all games with totals above 218, Over the total is 70-59-2 (54.3%).
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in ALL 4 games

Last Game Trends

• Home teams are a better wager when coming off a win in a series. Home teams coming off a win in the prior game of a series are 74-41 SU and 61-54 ATS (53%) since 2016. Those coming off a loss are 79-67 SU and 67-76-3 ATS (46.9%) in that same span. Naturally, the latter are often the lower-seeded team in a series, but this is a good indication of how momentum aids a team.

System Matches: PLAY ORLANDO (-2 vs. CLE), PLAY MIAMI (+9 vs. BOS), FADE NEW ORLEANS (+1 vs. OKC), FADE LA LAKERS (+3.5 vs. DEN)

• Blowout losses carry over. There is a bit of misconception when it comes to teams “bouncing back” from rough first-round losses. In fact, teams that lost their previous game by 10 points or more are just 76-135 SU and 91-117-3 ATS (43.8%) in the next contest since 2013. However, they were 11-7 ATS last year, including 8-1 ATS at home. This year, they are 4-5 SU and 6-3 ATS.
System Matches: FADE CLEVELAND (+2 at ORL), FADE NEW ORLEANS (+1 vs OKC), FADE BOSTON (-9 at MIA)

First-Round Trends by Game Number

• Since 2019, the first-round Game Three home teams have been 15-23 SU and 16-22 ATS (42.1%). However, their 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS performance in 2023 was their best in several years.
System Matches: FADE NEW ORLEANS (+1 vs OKC), FADE MIAMI (+9 vs BOS)

• The better Game Three home teams are those coming off a win in Game Two. They are 11-9 SU and 9-11 ATS (45%) in their last 20 tries, while those that lost in Game Two are on a 11-19 SU and 13-17 ATS (43.3%) skid.
System Matches: SLIGHT PLAY MIAMI (+9 vs BOS)

• Game Three point spreads most often tell the story, as hosts of 4.5 points or more are on a 16-2 SU and 14-4 ATS (77.8%) stretch since ’13, while home dogs of 4.5 points or more are just 3-16 SU and 7-11-1 ATS (38.9%) in that same span.
System Matches: FADE MIAMI (+9 vs BOS)

• Game Three home teams in the +4 to -4 line range are currently on a brutal skid of 8-18 SU and 7-18-1 ATS (28%) since 2017.
System Matches: FADE NEW ORLEANS (+1 vs OKC)

• Game Four home teams in the +3 to -3 line range have fared well recently, going 19-9 SU and 19-8-1 ATS (70.4%) since 2013.
System Matches: PLAY ORLANDO (-2 vs CLE)

• Game Four home underdogs of 3.5 points or more are just 9-26 SU and 12-22-1 ATS (35.3%) since 2013.
System Matches: FADE LA LAKERS (+3.5 vs DEN)

• Teams down 0-3 in a first-round series are just 11-22 SU and 14-18-1 ATS (43.8%) in their last 33 Game Four tries.
System Matches: FADE LA LAKERS (+3.5 vs DEN)

Trends by Seed Number

• #1 seeds are good bets when underrated. #1 seeds when in the small favorite (-2.5 or less) or underdog role are 9-7 SU and ATS (56.3%) since 2013 in the first round of the playoffs. They are also 11-5 Under the total (68.8%) in those games.
System Matches: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY (-1 at NOP), also PLAY UNDER in OKC-NOP (o/u at 209)

• #4 seeds have been brutal in Games Three and Four, with a 14-32 SU and 16-29-1 ATS (35.6%) record in such games of their first-round series since 2013.
System Matches: FADE CLEVELAND (+2 at ORL)

• #4 seeds have tended to stack losses, as they are just 25-32 SU and 20-37 ATS (35.1%) since 2013 in same-series games following a loss.
System Matches: FADE CLEVELAND (+2 at ORL)

First-Round Game Scoring Trends

• Success in first round games comes with topping the 117-point mark, as teams that have scored 118 points or more are on a 106-28 SU and 105-29 ATS (78.4%) run over the last 5+ postseasons.

• In terms of points allowed, 99 points is the key benchmark. Teams that have allowed 98 points or fewer in the last 5+ first round playoff seasons are 83-14 SU and 80-15-2 ATS (84.2%).

Applying Top ‘23-24 NBA Situational Records for the Rest of Season

There is still a lot to be decided in terms of divisional races and which teams will or will not qualify for the postseason. With over 50 games in the books, we know a lot about the teams, specifically what scheduling situations they have been best or worst at so far in the 2023-24 season. With that in mind, I figured I’d share what have been 17 of the most definitive performance records in various scheduling situations so far and where these NBA betting trends will apply the rest of the way.

ORLANDO has thrived in the commonplace One Day Rest scheduling scenario this season, going 35-16 SU and 34-17 ATS (66.7%).
4/27 vs Cleveland
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO (-2 vs CLE)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NO QUALIFYING TEAM STRENGTH SYSTEMS TODAY

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 249-192 SU but 190-239-12 ATS (44.3%) over the last 5-1/2 seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 34-61 ATS.
System Match: FADE ORLANDO (-2 vs CLE), FADE MIAMI (+9 vs BOS)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 231-244 SU and 212-258-5 ATS (45.1%) in the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+9 vs BOS)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 237-231 SU and 210-245-11 ATS (46.2%) the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+9 vs BOS)

Unusual defensive performances
Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 147-54 SU and 113-86-2 ATS (56.8%) over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: PLAY BOSTON (-9 at MIA)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 190-238 ATS (44.4%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 26-109 SU and 58-74-3 ATS (43.9%).
System Matches: FADE OKLAHOMA CITY (-1 at NOP)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA LAKERS +3.5 (+2.8), 2. MIAMI +9 (+1.2), 3. CLEVELAND +2 (+0.6)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: OKLAHOMA CITY -1 (+1.0)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND +2 (+2.5), 2. LA LAKERS +3.5 (+1.6)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON -9 (+0.8), 2. OKLAHOMA CITY -1 (+0.4)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: OKC-NOP OVER 210 (+0.9)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DEN-LAL UNDER 218 (-4.5), 2. CLE-ORL UNDER 201.5 (-2.4), 3. BOS-MIA UNDER 204 (-0.2)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA LAKERS +3.5 (+3.1), 2. MIAMI +9 (+2.2), 3. CLEVELAND +2 (+0.3)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: OKLAHOMA CITY -1 (+1.2)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOS-MIA OVER 204 (+3.8), 2. OKC-NOP OVER 210 (+3.4)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DEN-LAL UNDER 218 (-2.4), 3. CLE-ORL UNDER 201.5 (-1.1)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

Saturday, April 27, 2024

(541) CLEVELAND at (542) ORLANDO
* Favorites are 9-2 in the last 11 games in the head-to-head series
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO ATS

(547) DENVER at (548) LA LAKERS
* DENVER has won the last five ATS at LAL
System Match: PLAY DENVER ATS

(545) BOSTON at (546) MIAMI
* Under the total is 7-2 in the last nine of the series at Miami
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(543) OKLAHOMA CITY at (544) NEW ORLEANS
* Road teams are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 meetings (including 9-1 ATS in the last 10)
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY ATS

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