The following NBA betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Monday, April 29, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic NBA betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:30 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2-year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, OKLAHOMA CITY, LA LAKERS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors enjoyed a strong postseason run this past year in the NBA, going 51-35 ATS on all games, good for 59.3%. You will see in a little while that it wasn’t all success, however, as their money line plays tanked. System #4 will become far more important in April.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, OKLAHOMA CITY, LA LAKERS

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a complete opposite result when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Majority handle moneyline wagerers had a brutal playoff run last year, going 48-39 for -34.6 units and an ROI of -38.4%. This system will be significant starting in April.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI ML, OKLAHOMA CITY ML, LA LAKERS ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and an ROI of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a really significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI ML, LA LAKERS ML

These last two systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): LAL-DEN

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: BOS-MIA, OKC-NOP
PLAY UNDER in: LAL-DEN

Naturally being able to predict an upset in a series will give you a leg up on a game-by-game wagering basis as well, but perhaps equally important is being able to find the heavier underdogs that wind up being more competitive than expected and push the favorites to the limit in series. Of course, vice versa can be equally profitable, finding favorites that will sweep through a first-round series easily. Take a look at some of these series trends based on won-lost records at various time lengths of the regular season.

• There is a better chance that a #1-#8 or #2-#7 series goes longer if the better seed had a better ATS record in the latter parts of the season. In fact, in 13 of the last 17 series of these seed types that went six or seven games, the better seed had an ever or better ATS record in the last 10 games time period. Watch out for Philadelphia in this scenario, as the 76ers won their final 10 games against the Vegas number. Also, both Chicago and Miami had better last 10 ATS records than Boston and New York.

• The last 10 games outright records can also be an indicator of a #1-#8 or #2-#7 series that could go longer. In ten of the last 17 matchups of those seeds to go six games or longer, the worse seed had an equal or better record in the last 10 games of the regular season. Again, this could be an issue for New York against Philadelphia. The LA Lakers also enjoy this edge over Denver.

• In 12 of the last 13 #4-5 and #3-6 series that ended in upsets (worse seeded team winning), the teams had overall won-lost records within four games of one another. This is in play for all but the Minnesota-Phoenix series in the West for 2024.

• There has been a significant benchmark in the success of the lower-seeded team at 10 wins less than the opponent over the last 10 playoff years. If more than 10 regular season wins separate the teams, only Miami in 2023 has won a series, and the lesser seeds are averaging just 1.26 game wins per series, with eight sweeps in 32 series. Additionally, only four other teams pushed a series to seven games. For 2024, the Celtics are qualifiers.

• When 10 or less wins have separated the teams, the worse-seeded team won an average of 2.313 games per series, including 14 of those 48 series wins. Only six times did a team get swept, and only ten other times did it win just a single game. The #5-#7 seeds in both conferences would appear to have the potential to each win at least two games in their respective series.

• Only four of the last 27 playoff better seeds that won at least four more games against the spread in the regular season have lost a series. The 23 winning teams lost only 1.35 games per series as well. In essence, it is important that teams played well against the spread in the regular season. The Minnesota-Phoenix matchup is the only one that qualifies as of Thursday 4/18.

• Using the records from the second half of the season has also revealed quality underdogs. When the worse seeded team had an equal or better record in the second half of the season, they won eight of last 17 series while going 53-48 outright in games. This included series wins by the Knicks and Lakers last year. There are three “underdogs” that hold this edge for 2024, Indiana, Orlando, and Dallas.

• Alternatively, when there were five games or better record in the second half of the season for the better seed, all but one of 35 won their series while going 137-42 SU. Furthermore, only one other of the 35 worse-seeded teams pushed the series to seven games. Of course, the lone winner in this trend was Miami in 2023. Boston will hold this edge over any of its first-round opponents. New York would have it over Philadelphia.

• There is an interesting benchmark for worse-seeded teams at 48 wins (59%+) or more. Those that reach that regular season mark have gone 6-19 in series, and 63-84 (42.9%) in individual games over the last 10 postseasons. Those that have 58% or less (47-35 in full season) are just 9-46 in series’ and 91-198 (31.5%) in individual games. All the potential first-round “underdogs” that won 48 games are in the West: New Orleans, LA Lakers, Dallas, and Phoenix.

• Of the last 13 better seed sweeps, all 13 had better records in the second half of the season, only one had a worse record in last 20 games, and only three won fewer of their last 10 games. According to this, Boston and Oklahoma City have the best chance at first-round sweeps, as they are the only teams with advantages over their opponents in all three varying time ranges.

First-Round Game Trends by Line/Total Range

• Big favorites have held a significant edge. Since the start of the 2014 playoffs, NBA first-round favorites of 8.5 points or more are 87-14 SU and 60-41 ATS (59.4%).
System Matches: PLAY BOSTON (-10.5 at MIA)

• Bigger road favorites are also a solid bet. Only 10 of the last 53 road favorites of 4.5 points or more have lost outright, going 43-10 SU and 35-17-1 ATS (67.3%).
System Matches: PLAY BOSTON (-10.5 at MIA), PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY (-5 at NOP)

• The last two NBA first-round playoffs saw 49 Unders, 37 Overs – (57%). So far in 2024, there have been 16 Unders, 13 Overs – (55.2%).
System Matches: CONSIDER PLAYING UNDER in ALL 3 GAMES

• With the meteoric rise in scoring over the last few years in the NBA, it is interesting to note that in the lowest totaled first-round playoff games over the last five postseasons, 218 or less, Under the total is 65-42-3 (60.7%). In all games with totals above 218, Over the total is 71-59-2 (54.6%).
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in ALL 3 GAMES

Last Game Trends

• Home teams are a better wager when coming off a win in a series. Home teams coming off a win in the prior game of a series are 76-44 SU and 63-57 ATS (52.5%) since 2016. Those coming off a loss are 80-69 SU and 68-78-3 ATS (46.6%) in that same span. Naturally, the latter are often the lower seeded team in a series but this is a good indication of how momentum aids a team.
System Matches: FADE ALL 3 HOME TEAMS

• Blowout losses carry over. There is a bit of misconception when it comes to teams “bouncing back” from rough first-round losses. In fact, teams that lost their previous game by 10 points or more are just 78-139 SU and 93-121-3 ATS (43.5%) in the next contest since 2013. However, they were 11-7 ATS last year, including 8-1 ATS at home. This year so far, they are 6-9 SU and 8-7 ATS.
System Matches: FADE MIAMI (+10.5 vs. BOS), FADE NEW ORLEANS (+5 vs. OKC), FADE DENVER (-7.5 vs. LAL)

First-Round Trends by Game Number

• Game Four home underdogs of 3.5 points or more are just 10-26 SU and 13-22-1 ATS (37.1%) since 2013.
System Matches: FADE MIAMI (+10.5 vs. BOS), FADE NEW ORLEANS (+5 vs. OKC)

• Teams down 0-3 in a first-round series are just 12-23 SU and 15-19-1 ATS (44.1%) in their last 35 Game Four tries.
System Matches: FADE NEW ORLEANS (+5 vs OKC)

• Game Fives have belonged to the home teams over the last four non-neutral court playoff seasons, as they are 31-9 SU (just 20-20 ATS – 50%) since 2017.
System Matches: PLAY DENVER (-7.5 vs LAL)

• Non-neutral Game Fives have been defensive focused of late, going 22-12 Under the total (64.7%) since 2018, with road teams putting up just 104.2 PPG.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER the total in LAL-DEN (o/u at 217)

Trends by Seed Number

• #1 seeds close out series…period. They are 19-3 SU and 15-7 ATS (68.2%) in their last 22 first-round playoff closeout tries. This is a big reason they haven’t been pushed to a Game Seven since 2014.
System Matches: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY (-5 at NOP)

• #2 seeds have been crazy good as bigger chalk. #2 seeded teams are on a strong run of 68-15 SU and 53-30 ATS (63.9%) when favored by 4.5 points or more.
System Matches: PLAY DENVER (-7.5 vs LAL)

• #2 seeds have also bounced back quickly from losses, 19-3 SU and 17-5 ATS (77.3%) in their last 22.
System Matches: PLAY DENVER (-7.5 vs LAL)

Trends by teams closing out series or facing elimination

• Big road favorites of five points or more looking to close out series are money, showing a record of 13-2 SU and 12-3 ATS (80%) since the start of the 2013 postseason.
System Matches: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY (-5 at NOP)

• Teams getting a second (or third) closeout opportunity after losing the prior chance are 22-10 SU but 11-19-2 ATS (36.7%) in their last 32 tries.
System Matches: FADE DENVER (-7.5 vs LAL)

First-Round Game Scoring Trends

• Success in first-round games comes with topping the 117-point mark, as teams that have scored 118 points or more are on a 109-28 SU and 108-29 ATS (78.8%) run over the last 5+ postseasons.

• In terms of points allowed, 99 points is the key benchmark. Teams that have allowed 98 points or fewer in the last 5+ first-round playoff seasons are 87-15 SU and 84-16-2 ATS (84%).

Applying Top ‘23-24 NBA Situational Records for Rest of the Season

There is still a lot to be decided in terms of divisional races and which teams will or will not qualify for the postseason. With over 50 games in the books, we know a lot about the teams, specifically what scheduling situations they have been best or worst at so far in the 2023-24 season. With that in mind, I figured I’d share what have been 17 of the most definitive performance records in various scheduling situations so far and where these NBA betting trends will apply the rest of the way.

NO QUALIFYING TEAM-SPECIFIC SITUATIONAL TRENDS TODAY

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:

Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 83-69 (54.6%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 158-131 (54.7%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 220-151 (59.3%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in BOS-MIA (o/u at 203.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

NO QUALIFYING EXTREME STATS SYSTEMS TODAY

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 191-238 ATS (44.5%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 26-109 SU and 58-74-3 ATS (43.9%).
System Matches: FADE OKLAHOMA CITY (-5 at NOP)

NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 41-61 ATS (40.2%) in the next game, including 18-33 ATS (35.3%) on the road over the last three seasons.
System Matches: FADE OKLAHOMA CITY (-5 at NOP)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS +5 (+2.4), 2. MIAMI +10.5 (+1.1)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: DENVER -7.5 (+0.5)

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: NEW ORLEANS +5 (+3.0)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DENVER -7.5 (+0.5), 2. BOSTON -10.5 (+0.3)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: NONE TODAY

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). BOS-MIA UNDER 203.5 (-0.6) and LAL-DEN UNDER 217 (-0.6), 3. OKC-NOP UNDER 207 (-0.1)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY +5 (+2.2), 2. MIAMI +10.5 (+2.0)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: DENVER -7.5 (+0.2)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKC-NOP OVER 207 (+1.9), 2. LAL-DEN OVER 217 (+1.4)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: BOS-MIA UNDER 203.5 (-0.5)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(557) BOSTON at (558) MIAMI
* Under the total is 8-2 in the last 10 of the head-to-head series in Miami
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(561) LA LAKERS at (562) DENVER
* Under the total 6-1 in the last seven head-to-head meetings in Denver
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(559) OKLAHOMA CITY at (560) NEW ORLEANS
* Road teams are 16-3 ATS in the last 18 head-to-head meetings (including 10-1 ATS in the last 11)
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY ATS

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