The following NBA betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Tuesday, April 30, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:15 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, CLEVELAND

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2-year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY): INDIANA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors enjoyed a strong postseason run this past year in the NBA, going 51-35 ATS on all games, good for 59.3%. You will see in a little while that it wasn’t all success, however, as their money line plays tanked. System #4 will become far more important in April.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, CLEVELAND, INDIANA

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a complete opposite result when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE): INDIANA

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on handle for +24.21 units, an ROI of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units, a 14.4% ROI Both of these ROIs are notable improvements over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK ML, INDIANA ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Majority handle moneyline wagerers had a brutal playoff run last year, going 48-39 for -34.6 units and an ROI of -38.4%. This system will be significant starting in April.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW YORK ML, CLEVELAND ML, INDIANA ML

These last two systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): ORL-CLE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in ALL 3 GAMES

Naturally being able to predict an upset in a series will give you a leg up on a game-by-game wagering basis as well, but perhaps equally important is being able to find the heavier underdogs that wind up being more competitive than expected and push the favorites to the limit in series. Of course, vice versa can be equally profitable, finding favorites that will sweep through a first-round series easily. Take a look at some of these series trends based on won-lost records at various time lengths of the regular season.

• There is actually a better chance that a #1-#8 or #2-#7 series goes longer if the better seed had a better ATS record in the latter parts of the season. In fact, in 13 of the last 17 series of these seed types that went six or seven games, the better seed had an ever or better ATS record in the last 10 games time period. Watch out for Philadelphia in this scenario, as the 76ers won their final 10 games against the Vegas number.

• The last 10 games outright records can also be an indicator of a #1-#8 or #2-#7 series that could go longer. In ten of the last 17 matchups of those seeds to go six games or longer, the worse seed had an equal or better record in the last 10 games of the regular season. Again, this could be an issue for New York against Philadelphia.

• In 12 of the last 13 #4-5 and #3-6 series that ended in upsets (worse seeded team winning), the teams had overall won-lost records within four games of one another. This is in play for all but the Minnesota-Phoenix series in the West for 2024.

• When 10 or fewer wins have separated the teams, the worse-seeded team won an average of 2.313 games per series, including 14 of those 48 series wins. Only six times did a team get swept, and only ten other times did it win just a single game. The #5-#7 seeds in both conferences would appear to have the potential to each win at least two games in their respective series.

• Using the records from the second half of the season has also revealed quality underdogs. When the worse-seeded team had an equal or better record in the second half of the season, they won eight of the last 17 series while going 53-48 outright in games. This included series wins by the Knicks & Lakers last year. There are three “underdogs” that hold this edge for 2024: Indiana, Orlando, and Dallas.

• Alternatively, when there were five games or better records in the second half of the season for the better seed, all but one of 35 won their series while going 137-42 SU. Furthermore, only one other of the 35 worse-seeded teams pushed the series to seven games. Of course, the lone winner in this trend was Miami in 2023. New York would have it over Philadelphia.

First-Round Game Trends by Line/Total Range

• Bigger road favorites are also a solid bet. Only 10 of the last 55 road favorites of 4.5 points or more have lost outright, going 45-10 SU and 37-17-1 ATS (68.5%).

System Matches: PLAY INDIANA (*if they fall become a -4.5 favorite or higher, -4 currently)

• The last two NBA first-round playoffs saw 49 Unders and 37 Overs (57%). So far in 2024, there have been 19 Unders and 13 Overs (59.4%).
System Matches: CONSIDER PLAYING UNDER

• With the meteoric rise in scoring over the last few years in the NBA, it is interesting to note that in the lowest totaled first round playoff games over the last five postseasons, 218 or less, Under the total is 68-42-3 (61.8%). In all games with totals above 218, Over the total is 71-59-2 (54.6%).
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in ALL 3 GAMES

Last Game Trends

• Home teams are a better wager when coming off a win in a series – Home teams coming off a win in the prior game of a series are 76-44 SU and 63-57 ATS (52.5%) since 2016. Those coming off a loss are 81-71 SU and 68-81-3 ATS (45.6%) in that same span. Naturally, the latter are often the lower-seeded team in a series, but this is a good indication of how momentum aids a team.
System Matches: PLAY NEW YORK (-4.5 vs. PHI), FADE CLEVELAND (-5 vs. ORL), FADE MILWAUKEE (+4 vs. IND)

• Blowout losses carry over. There is a bit of misconception when it comes to teams “bouncing back” from rough first-round losses. In fact, teams that lost their previous game by 10 points or more are just 79-141 SU and 93-124-3 ATS (42.9%) in the next contest since 2013. However, they were 11-7 ATS last year, including 8-1 ATS at home. This year so far, they are 7-11 SU and 8-10 ATS.
System Matches: FADE CLEVELAND (-5 vs. ORL), FADE MILWAUKEE (+4 vs. IND)

First-Round Trends by Game Number

• Game Fives have belonged to the home teams over the last four non-neutral court playoff seasons, as they are 32-9 SU (just 20-21 ATS – 48.8%) since 2017.
System Matches: PLAY NEW YORK (-4.5 vs. PHI), PLAY CLEVELAND (-5 vs. ORL), PLAY MILWAUKEE (+4 vs. IND)

• Non-neutral Game Fives have been defensive focused of late, going 23-12 Under the total (65.7%) since 2018, with road teams putting up just 104.3 PPG.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in ALL 3 GAMES

Trends by Seed Number

• #2 seeds have been crazy good as bigger chalk. #2 seeded teams are on a strong run of 69-15 SU and 53-31 ATS (63.1%) when favored by 4.5 points or more.
System Matches: PLAY NEW YORK (-4.5 vs PHI)

• #4 seeds have tended to stack losses, as they are just 26-33 SU and 21-38 ATS (35.6%) since 2013 in same-series games following a loss.
System Matches: FADE CLEVELAND (-5 vs ORL)

First-Round Game Scoring Trends

• Success in first-round games comes with topping the 117-point mark, as teams that have scored 118 points or more are on a 109-28 SU and 108-29 ATS (78.8%) run over the last 5+ postseasons.

• In terms of points allowed, 99 points is the key benchmark. Teams that have allowed 98 points or fewer in the last 5+ first-round playoff seasons are 89-16 SU and 86-17-2 ATS (83.5%).

Applying Top ‘23-24 NBA Situational Records for the Rest of Season

There is still a lot to be decided in terms of divisional races and which teams will or will not qualify for the postseason. With over 50 games in the books, we know a lot about the teams, specifically what scheduling situations they have been best or worst at so far in the 2023-24 season. With that in mind, I figured I’d share what have been 17 of the most definitive performance records in various scheduling situations so far and where these angles will apply the rest of the way.

INDIANA has been at its best against divisional opponents so far this season, going 14-7 SU and 13-8 ATS (61.9%).
4/30 at Milwaukee
System Match: PLAY INDIANA (-4 at MIL)

MILWAUKEE has struggled in the ordinary One Day Rest scheduling scenario this season, going 26-26 SU but 18-34 ATS (34.6%).
4/30 vs Indiana
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (+4 vs IND)

NEW YORK has gone 11-5 Under the total (68.8%) at home this season when returning from a road trip in their prior game.
4/30 vs Philadelphia
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total in PHI-NYK (o/u at 203)

ORLANDO has thrived in the commonplace One Day Rest scheduling scenario this season, going 36-16 SU and 35-17 ATS (67.3%).
4/30 at Cleveland
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO (+5 at CLE)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NO QUALIFYING TEAM STRENGTH SYSTEMS TODAY

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

Favorites flush low-scoring totals quickly
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 131-45 SU and 109-65-2 ATS (62.6%) in their last 176 tries.
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-5 vs ORL)

Divisional upsets can create urgency
NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 88-51 SU and 83-54-2 ATS (60.6%) in that follow-up try over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (+4.5 at NYK)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 231-245 SU and 212-259-5 ATS (45%) in the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE INDIANA (-4 at MIL)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 237-232 SU and 210-246-11 ATS (46.1%) the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE INDIANA (-4 at MIL)

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 125-149 SU and 123-144-7 ATS (46.1%) in that next contest over the last 5-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE INDIANA (-4 at MIL)

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 115-82 SU and 113-81-3 ATS (58.2%) since 2021.
System Match: PLAY NEW YORK (-4.5 vs PHI)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK SYSTEMS TODAY

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORLANDO +5 (+0.8), 2. PHILADELPHIA +4.5 (+0.6), 3. MILWAUKEE +4 (+0.1)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: NONE TODAY

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: PHILADELPHIA +4.5 (+0.3)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: CLEVELAND -5 (+1.0)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). PHI-NYK OVER 203 (+0.6) and ORL-CLE OVER 201.5 (+0.6)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: IND-MIL UNDER 216 (-0.7)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORLANDO +5 (+1.2), 2. MILWAUKEE +4 (+0.6), 3. PHILADELPHIA +4.5 (+0.4)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: NONE TODAY

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHI-NYK OVER 203 (+3.3), 2. IND-MIL OVER 216 (+1.7), 3. ORL-CLE OVER 201.5 (+0.7)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: NONE TODAY

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(569) ORLANDO at (570) CLEVELAND
* Favorites are 10-2 in the last 12 games in the head-to-head series
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND ATS

(565) PHILADELPHIA at (566) NEW YORK
* Under the total is 4-1 in the last five of the head-to-head series at NEW YORK
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(567) INDIANA at (568) MILWAUKEE
* Over the total 11-3 in the last 14 head-to-head meetings
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

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