The following NBA betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Friday, May 3, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic NBA betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:30 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors enjoyed a strong postseason run this past year in the NBA, going 51-35 ATS on all games, good for 59.3%. You will see in a little while that it wasn’t all success, however, as their money line plays tanked. System #4 will become far more important in April.
System Matches (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Majority handle moneyline wagerers had a brutal playoff run last year, going 48-39 for -34.6 units and an ROI of -38.4%. This system will be significant starting in April.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND ML, DALLAS ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and a ROI of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a real significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
System Matches (FADE): CLEVELAND ML

These last two systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): CLE-ORL

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: CLE-ORL, LAC-DAL

Naturally being able to predict an upset in a series will give you a leg up on a game-by-game wagering basis as well, but perhaps equally important is being able to find the heavier underdogs that wind up being more competitive than expected and push the favorites to the limit in series. Of course, vice versa can be equally profitable, finding favorites that will sweep through a first round series easily. Take a look at some of these series trends based on won-lost records at various time lengths of the regular season.

• In 12 of the last 13 #4-5 and #3-6 series that ended in upsets (worse seeded team winning), the teams had overall won-lost records within four games of one another. This is in play for all but the Minnesota-Phoenix series in the West for 2024.

• When 10 or less wins have separated the teams, the worse seeded team won an average of 2.313 games per series, including 14 of those 48 series wins. Only six times did a team get swept, and only ten other times did it win just a single game. The #5-#7 seeds in both conferences would appear to have the potential to each win at least two games in their respective series.

• Using the records from the second half of the season has also revealed quality underdogs. When the worse seeded team had an equal or better record in the second half of the season, they won eight of last 17 series while going 53-48 outright in games. This included series wins by the Knicks and Lakers last year. There are three “underdogs” that hold this edge for 2024, Indiana, Orlando, and Dallas.

First-Round Game Trends by Line/Total Range

• First round home favorites of four points or less have proven to be a bad investment lately, as over the last 10 playoff seasons, they are just 40-38 SU and 31-44-1 ATS (41.3%).
System Matches: FADE ORLANDO (-4 vs CLE)

• The last two NBA first round playoffs saw 49 Unders, 37 Overs – (57%). So far in 2024, there have been 20 Unders, 19 Overs – (51.3%).
System Matches: CONSIDER PLAYING UNDER

• With the meteoric rise in scoring over the last few years in the NBA, it is interesting to note that in the lowest totaled first round playoff games over the last five postseasons, 218 or less, Under the total is 69-48-3 (59%). In all games with totals above 218, Over the total is 71-59-2 (54.6%).
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in BOTH GAMES

Last Game Trends

• Home teams are a better wager when coming off a win in a series – Home teams coming off a win in the prior game of a series are 77-47 SU and 64-60 ATS (51.6%) since 2016. Those coming off a loss are 84-71 SU and 70-82-3 ATS (46.1%) in that same span. Naturally, the latter are often the lower seeded team in a series, but this is a good indication of how momentum aids a team.
System Matches: FADE ORLANDO (-4 vs. CLE), PLAY DALLAS (-8 vs. LAC)

• Blowout losses carry over. There is a bit of misconception when it comes to teams “bouncing back” from rough first-round losses. In fact, teams that lost their previous game by 10 points or more are just 81-143 SU and 95-126-3 ATS (43%) in the next contest since 2013. However, they were 11-7 ATS last year, including 8-1 ATS at home. This year, so far, they are 9-13 SU and 10-12 ATS.
System Matches: FADE LA CLIPPERS (+8 at DAL)

• Heartbreaking losses have a galvanizing effect – Teams that lose close games, or those decided by three points or less, in the first round of the NBA playoffs have bounced back with a 38-16 SU and 34-18-2 ATS (65.4%) mark in the next game since 2014. In the line range of +5 to -5, these teams are on an amazing 23-7 SU and 20-8-2 ATS (71.4%) surge! Of note, only three of last season’s 43 first-round games were decided by three points or fewer.
System Matches: PLAY ORLANDO (-4 vs CLE)

First-Round Trends by Game Number

• Game Sixes are road domination. Road teams in NBA first-round Game Sixes are 27-14 SU and 30-11 ATS (73.2%) in the last 11 seasons. Defense is usually the key, as they are holding home teams to just 98.1 PPG, and have gone Under the total in 25 of those 41 contests (61%).
System Matches: PLAY CLEVELAND (+4 at ORL), PLAY LA CLIPPERS (+8 at DAL), also PLAY UNDER in BOTH GAMES

• Road teams looking to close out a series in game 6 of the first round are 19-7 SU and ATS (73.1%) in their last 26 tries. Outright winners are 26-0 ATS in those games.
System Matches: PLAY CLEVELAND (+4 at ORL)

Trends by Seed Number

• #4 seeds have tended to stack losses, as they are just 27-33 SU and 21-39 ATS (35%) since 2013 in same series games following a loss.
System Matches: FADE LA CLIPPERS (+8 at DAL)

First-Round Game Scoring Trends

• Success in first-round games comes with topping the 117-point mark, as teams that have scored 118 points or more are on a 113-28 SU and 112-29 ATS (79.4%) run over the last 5+ postseasons.

• In terms of points allowed, 99 points is the key benchmark. Teams that have allowed 98 points or fewer in the last 5+ first-round playoff seasons are 93-16 SU and 90-17-2 ATS (84.1%).

Applying Top ‘23-24 NBA Situational Records for the Rest of Season

There is obviously still a lot to be decided in terms of divisional races and which teams will or will not qualify for the postseason. At this point, with over 50 games in the books, we know a lot about the teams, specifically what scheduling situations they have been best or worst at so far in the 2023-24 season. With that in mind, I figured I’d share what has been 17 of the most definitive performance records in various scheduling situations so far and where these NBA betting trends will apply the rest of the way.

NO QUALIYFING SCHEDULING SITUATIONS TODAY

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based upon some various team strength indicator or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 123-36 SU and 102-57 ATS (64.2%) run.
System Matches: PLAY DALLAS (-8 vs LAC)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 250-193 SU but 191-240-12 ATS (44.3%) over the last 5-1/2 seasons. The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 34-61 ATS.
System Match: FADE DALLAS (-8 vs LAC)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: CLEVELAND +4 (+1.2)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: DALLAS -8 (+0.9)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND +4 (+3.0), 2. LA CLIPPERS +8 (+1.5)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: LAC-DAL OVER 208 (+1.2)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: CLE-ORL UNDER 200 (-0.7)

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: CLEVELAND +4 (+0.8)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: DALLAS -8 (+1.9)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: CLE-ORL OVER 200 (+2.2), 2. LAC-DAL OVER 208 (+1.9)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(523) CLEVELAND at (524) ORLANDO
* Favorites are 10-3 in the last 13 games in the head-to-head series
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO ATS

(527) LA CLIPPERS at (528) DALLAS
* Road teams have won 3 of the last 4 ATS in the head-to-head series
System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS ATS

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