The following NBA betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Saturday/Sunday, May 4/5, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic NBA betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors enjoyed a strong postseason run this past year in the NBA, going 51-35 ATS on all games, good for 59.3%. You will see in a little while that it wasn’t all successes however, as their money line plays tanked. System #4 will become far more important in April.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER, CLEVELAND

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on handle for +24.21 units, an R.O.I. of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units. A 14.4% R.O.I. Both of these R.O.I.s are notable improvements over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY): MINNESOTA ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Majority handle moneyline wagerers had a brutal playoff run last year, going 48-39 for -34.6 units and an R.O.I. of -38.4%. This system will be significant starting in April.
System Matches (FADE): MINNESOTA ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and an R.O.I. of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a real significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
System Matches (FADE): MINNESOTA ML, ORLANDO ML

These last two systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): ORL-CLE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in MIN-DEN, PLAY UNDER in ORL-CLE

Naturally being able to predict an upset in a series will give you a leg up on a game-by-game wagering basis as well, but perhaps equally important is being able to find the heavier underdogs that wind up being more competitive than expected and push the favorites to the limit in series. Of course, vice versa can be equally profitable, finding favorites that will sweep through a first round series easily. Take a look at some of these series trends based upon won-lost records at various time lengths of the regular season.

• Using the records from the second half of the season has also revealed quality underdogs. When the worse seeded team had an equal or better record in the second half of the season, they won eight of last 17 series while going 53-48 outright in games. This included series wins by the Knicks & Lakers last year. There are three “underdogs” that hold this edge for 2024, Indiana, Orlando, and Dallas.

First Round Game Trends by Line/Total Range

• First round home favorites of four points or less have proven to be a bad investment lately, as over the last 10 playoff seasons, they are just 40-38 SU & 31-44-1 ATS (41.3%).
System Matches: FADE CLEVELAND (-3.5 vs ORL)

• The last two NBA first round playoffs saw 49 Unders, 37 Over – (57%). So far in 2024, there have been 21 Uunders, 20 Overs – (51.2%).
System Matches: CONSIDER PLAYING UNDER

• With the meteoric rise in scoring over the last few years in the NBA, it is interesting to note that in the lowest totaled first round playoff games over the last five postseasons, 218 or less, Under the total is 70-49-3 (58.8%). In all games with totals above 218, Over the total is 71-59-2 (54.6%).
System Matches: PLAY UNDER the total in ORL-CLE (o/u at 195.5)

Last Game Trends

• Home teams are a better wager when coming off a win in a series – Home teams coming off a win in the prior game of a series are 78-47 SU & 65-60 ATS (52%) since 2016. Those coming off a loss are 85-71 SU & 71-82-3 ATS (46.4%) in that same span. Naturally, the latter are often the lower seeded team in a series, but this is a good indication of how momentum aids a team.
System Matches: FADE CLEVELAND (-3.5 vs ORL)

First-Round Trends by Game Number

• Game Sevens are usually competitive – Every fan loves a big Game Seven, and NBA fans should even more, as although the first-round Game Sevens have gone heavily to the favorites (13-4 SU), they are just 6-10-1 ATS (37.5%) in those 17 do-or-die contests.
System Matches: FADE CLEVELAND ATS (-3.5 vs ORL)

Trends by Seed Number

• #4 seeds have tended to stack losses, as they are just 27-34 SU & 21-40 ATS (34.4%) since 2013 in same series games following a loss.
System Matches: FADE CLEVELAND (-3.5 vs ORL)

Trends by teams closing out series’ or facing elimination

• Teams getting a second (or third) closeout opportunity after losing the prior chance are 24-10 SU but 12-20-2 ATS (37.5%) in their last 34 tries.
System Matches: FADE CLEVELAND (-3.5 vs ORL)

First-Round Game Scoring Trends

• Success in first round games comes with topping the 117-point mark, as teams that have scored 118 points or more are on a 113-28 SU & 112-29 ATS (79.4%) run over the last 5+ postseasons.

• In terms of points allowed, 99 points is the key benchmark. Teams that have allowed 98 points or fewer in the last 5+ first round playoff seasons are 94-16 SU and 91-17-2 ATS (84.3%).

Applying Top ‘23-24 NBA Situational Records for the Rest of Season

ORLANDO has thrived in the commonplace One Day Rest scheduling scenario this season, going 36-17 SU & ATS (67.9%).
5/5 at Cleveland
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO (+3.5 at CLE)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based upon some various team strength indicator or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 124-36 SU and 103-57 ATS (64.4%) run.
System Matches: PLAY DENVER (-4.5 vs MIN)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 235-126 SU but just 155-195-11 ATS (44.3%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match: FADE DENVER (-4.5 vs MIN)

Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams that coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 158-132 SU and 163-119-8 ATS (57.8%) run.
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-3.5 vs ORL)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK SYSTEMS TODAY

This Weekend’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

This Weekend’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: MINNESOTA +4.5 (+1.7)

This Weekend’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: CLEVELAND -3.5 (+0.2)

This Weekend’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: MINNESOTA +4.5 (+2.5)

This Weekend’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: CLEVELAND -3.5 (+2.0)

This Weekend’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIN-DEN UNDER 208.5 (-1.2), 2. ORL-CLE UNDER 195.5 (-0.4)

This Weekend’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: MINNESOTA +4.5 (+1.4)

This Weekend’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: CLEVELAND -3.5 (+0.3)

This Weekend’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORL-CLE UNDER 195.5 (-1.6), 2. MIN-DEN UNDER 208.5 (-1.5)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

Saturday, May 4, 2024

(529) MINNESOTA at (530) DENVER
* MINNESOTA has won five of the last six ATS in the series (did lose last time out)
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS

Sunday, May 5, 2024

(545) ORLANDO at (546) CLEVELAND
* Favorites are 11-3 in the last 14 games in the series
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND ATS

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