The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA Western Conference Finals Game Five. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for WCF Game Five, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: When 69% or more of the number of bets were on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) halfway through this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE): DALLAS ATS

Simply put, the better seeds win Game Five– The better seeded teams have dominated the Game Five action in conference finals series of late, going 13-4 SU and ATS (76.5%) since 2013. In all 17 of those games the outright winner covered the point spread as well.
System Matches: PLAY MINNESOTA (-5 vs DAL)

Game Fives with closeout implication have been high scoring – Since 2016, conference final Game Fives have gone 6-1 Over (85.7%) when one of the teams is attempting to close out the series, with games producing 225.1 PPG.
System Matches: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 209.5)

Teams seeded #5 or worse have been phenomenal underdogs in the conference final – Teams seeded #5 or lower have gone 12-14 SU and 19-7 ATS (73.1%) in their last 26 tries in the underdog role.
System Matches: PLAY DALLAS ATS (+5 at MIN)

* MINNESOTA has won their last five ATS in playoff games when facing elimination (4-1 SU)
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for Game Five as of 1:00 pm ET (on Wednesday 5/29). These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): MINNESOTA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors enjoyed a strong postseason run this past year in the NBA, going 51-35 ATS on all games, good for 59.3%. You will see in a little while that it wasn’t all success, however, as their moneyline plays tanked. System #4 will become far more important in April.
System Matches (PLAY): MINNESOTA

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following system shows some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a completely opposite result when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE): DALLAS

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Majority handle money line wagerers had a brutal playoff run last year, going 48-39 for -34.6 units and an ROI of -38.4%. This system will be significant starting in April.
System Matches (FADE): DALLAS ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and an ROI of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a real significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
System Matches (FADE): DALLAS ML

This last system involves totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER): DAL-MIN

Let’s take a look at some past NBA betting trends for series.

Series Trends

Being able to predict an upset in a series will give you a leg up on a game-by-game wagering basis. Accurately projecting which underdogs will push a series deep, or alternatively, which favorites will end a series quickly, can really boost your wagering profit in this round and all others. Take a look at some of these series trends based upon won-lost records at various time lengths of the regular season and in the playoffs to date.

• There have been 20 conference finals series over the last 10 playoff seasons, and the better seeds own just an 11-9 edge in series wins and a 63-50 game wins edge during that span. There have been four sweeps, three by the better seed, including Denver over the Lakers last year.

• Winning 70%+ of regular season games is a key benchmark of conference championship series success for better seeds. Those that did and weren’t facing a 70%+ win team are 8-1 in series and 32-16 in individual games. Boston was 78% this season. Those that won fewer than 70% of their regular season games are just 3-6 in their last seven conference final series (26-27 in games). This will apply to Minnesota.

• There has been a massive advantage of late in analyzing the earlier playoff round performances of the teams in a conference finals series. Teams that played fewer games in the first two rounds, or essentially lost fewer games in those series, are on a 17-1 conference finals series run! Four of the last 22 series matched teams that played equal games. The only team to lose after playing fewer games was Milwaukee in 2019. Considering this information for 2024, both Boston and Minnesota will be owning edges.

• Teams that faced a Game Seven matchup in either of their first two rounds series have won just two of their last 13 conference final series when not matched up against an opponent that faced a Game Seven itself. This includes Boston’s upset loss a year ago to Miami. For 2024, both Indiana and Minnesota played in Game Sevens this past Sunday. Neither Boston nor Dallas has been tested to that degree yet this playoff season.

Scoring Trends

94 points is a low benchmark for conference finals success – Teams that score 94 points or less in a conference finals playoff game have struggled badly, going just 10-51 SU and 11-50 ATS (18%) since 2013.

Success accompanies reaching the 116-point mark – Conference finals playoff teams scoring 116 points or more boast a record of 51-5 SU and 50-4-2 ATS (92.6%) over the last 11 seasons. Two of those ATS losses came last year, however.

Trends by Line Range

Big favorites are slowing – From 2013-2018 in the NBA playoffs, conference finals favorites of 5-points or more were 35-6 SU and 28-13 ATS. Since then, they are just 19-13 SU and 11-20-1 ATS (35.5%), including 1-6 ATS a year ago.
System Matches: FADE MINNESOTA (-5 vs DAL)

Totals in the 209-216 range have been most apt to see Over results – There have been 32 games in the last 10 conference finals series that have seen totals in this range, and 23 of them have gone Over (71.9%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in DAL-MIN (o/u at 209.5)

Last Game Trends

Zig-zag theory is alive and well in conference finals – Over the last three conference final seasons, teams coming off outright losses in conference finals games are 23-21 SU and 28-15-1 ATS (65.1%) in their 44 follow-up games. Those that lost by single digits are 20-11 Under (64.5%) the total in their next game.
System Matches: PLAY DALLAS (+5 at MIN), also PLAY UNDER in DAL-MIN (o/u at 209.5)

Close losses and playing on the road have been a bad scenario – Teams coming off losses of 10-points or less and playing on the road are just 4-15 SU and 7-12 ATS (36.8%) in conference finals games dating back to 2014.
System Matches: FADE DALLAS (+5 at MIN)

Trends by Game Number

Simply put, the better seeds win Game Five – The better-seeded teams have dominated the Game Five action in the conference final series of late, going 13-4 SU and ATS (76.5%) since 2013. In all 17 of those games, the outright winner covered the point spread as well.
System Matches: PLAY MINNESOTA (-5 vs DAL)

Favorites are on a huge Game Five run – Teams laying the points have gone 14-3 SU and ATS (82.4%) in conference final Game Fives.
System Matches: PLAY MINNESOTA (-5 vs DAL)

The team that lost Game Four is a solid Game Five play – Teams that lost Game Four are on an 11-6 SU and ATS (64.7%) run in Game Five of the conference finals.
System Matches: PLAY DALLAS (+5 at MIN)

Game Fives with closeout implication have been high scoring – Since 2016, conference final Game Fives have gone 6-1 Over (85.7%) when one of the teams is attempting to close out the series, with games producing 225.1 PPG.
System Matches: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 209.5)

Trends by Seed Number

#3/4 seeds are solid in the big favorite role– Conference final #3 & #4 seeds are on an 11-6 SU and ATS (64.7%) run as favorites of 3.5 points or more.
System Matches: PLAY MINNESOTA (-5 vs DAL)

Teams seeded #5 or worse have been phenomenal underdogs in the conference finals – Teams seeded #5 or lower have gone 12-14 SU and 19-7 ATS (73.1%) in their last 26 tries in the underdog role.
System Matches: PLAY DALLAS ATS (+5 at MIN)

Trends by teams closing out series or facing elimination

Road teams looking to close out series have fared well – Eight of the last 10 teams looking to close out a conference finals series on the road have done so, going 8-2 SU and 6-3-1 ATS (66.7%).
System Matches: PLAY DALLAS (+5 at MIN)

Closeout games have been definitive – There have been 38 different potential series closeout games in the conference finals in the last 11 seasons and outright winners are 35-2-1 ATS.

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based upon some various team strength indicator or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 126-43 SU and 105-64 ATS (62.1%) run.
System Matches: PLAY MINNESOTA (-5 vs DAL)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

NO QUALIFYING EXTREME STATS SYSTEMS FOR GAME 5

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS FOR GAME 5

Game Five NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Game Five UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: DALLAS +5 (+1.0)

Game Five UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: DALLAS +5 (+0.9)

Game Five TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: DAL-MIN UNDER 209.5 (-1.6)

Game Five UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: DALLAS +5 (+1.1)

Game Five TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: DAL-MIN UNDER 209.5 (-2.5)

Here are the other top trends in play for WCF Game Five:

Thursday, May 30, 2024

(511) DALLAS at (512) MINNESOTA

* Over the total is 3-1 in the last four of the head-to-head series at Minnesota
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

* MINNESOTA has won their last five ATS in playoff games when facing elimination
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS

* Underdogs have covered five of the last seven ATS in the head-to-head series
System Match: PLAY DALLAS ATS

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