The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA Conference Finals Game Fours. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for Game Fours, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 27-19 ATS record (58.7%).
System Matches (PLAY): INDIANA

Top NBA Resources:

* Over the total is 5-0 in the last five of the head-to-head series between BOS-IND
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 222.5)

Totals in the 209-216 range have been most apt to see Over results – There have been 31 games in the last 10 conference finals series’ that have seen totals in this range, and 23 of them have gone OVER (74.2%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in MIN-DAL (o/u at 210)

Home team Game Fours not down 0-3 are strong plays – Home teams not facing elimination in Game Four have fared very well of late, going 11-3 SU and 10-4 ATS (71.4%).
System Matches: PLAY DALLAS (-3 vs MIN)

Lay the points in closeout games – Conference finals teams looking to close out a series have gone 10-2 SU and ATS (83.3%) when favored by more than 4.5-points since 2013, outscoring opponents by 14.2 PPG.
System Matches: PLAY BOSTON (-7.5 at IND)

Closeout games have been definitive – There have been 36 different potential series closeout games in the conference finals in the last 11 seasons and outright winners are 34-1-1 ATS.

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic NBA betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for Monday’s games as of 11:30 AM ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 27-19 ATS record (58.7%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 46 games was only 3.6% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY): INDIANA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors enjoyed a strong postseason run this past year in the NBA, going 51-35 ATS on all games, good for 59.3%. You will see in a little while that it wasn’t all successes however, as their money line plays tanked. System #4 will become far more important in April.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, DALLAS

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Majority handle money line wagerers had a brutal playoff run last year, going 48-39 for -34.6 units and an ROI of -38.4%. This system will be significant starting in April.
System Matches (FADE ALL): INDIANA ML, MINNESOTA ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and an ROI of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a real significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
System Matches (FADE ALL): INDIANA ML, MINNESOTA ML

This last system involves totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER): MIN-DAL

Let’s take a look at some past trends for betting series.

Series Trends

• There have been 20 conference finals series over the last 10 playoff seasons, and the better seeds own just an 11-9 edge in series wins and a 63-50 game wins edge during that span. There have been four sweeps, three by the better seed, including Denver over the Lakers last year.

• The last three times that there have been differences of double-digit margins between teams’ regular season wins, the better seed won all three series and was 12-3 in individual games. This is the case for the Boston-Indiana series.

• Winning 70%+ of regular season games is a key benchmark of conference championship series success for better seeds. Those that did and weren’t facing a 70%+ win teams are 8-1 in series’ and 32-16 in individual games. Boston was 78% this season. Those that won fewer than 70% of their regular season games are just 3-6 in their last seven conference finals series’ (26-27 in games). This will apply to Minnesota.

• There has been a massive advantage of late in analyzing the earlier playoff round performances of the teams in a conference finals series. Teams that played fewer games in the first two rounds, or essentially lost fewer games in those series’, are on a 17-1 conference finals series run! Four of the last 22 series matched teams that played equal games. The only team to lose after playing fewer games was Milwaukee in 2019. Considering this information for 2024, both Boston and Minnesota will be owning edges.

• Teams that faced a Game Seven matchup in either of their first two rounds series have won just two of their last 13 conference finals series’ when not matched up against an opponent that faced a Game Seven itself. This includes Boston’s upset loss a year ago to Miami. For 2024, both Indiana and Minnesota played in Game Sevens. Neither Boston nor Dallas has been tested to that degree yet this playoff season.

Scoring Trends

94 points is a low benchmark for conference finals success – Teams that score 94 points or less in a conference finals playoff game have struggled badly, going just 10-51 SU & 11-50 ATS (18%) since 2013.

Success accompanies reaching the 116-point mark – Conference finals playoff teams scoring 116 points or more boast a record of 51-5 SU and 50-4-2 ATS (92.6%) over the last 11 seasons. Two of those ATS losses came last year, however.

Trends by Line Range

Big favorites are slowing – From 2013-2018 in the NBA playoffs, conference finals favorites of 5-points or more were 35-6 SU & 28-13 ATS. Since then, they are just 18-13 SU and 11-19-1 ATS (36.7%), including 1-6 ATS a year ago.
System Matches: FADE BOSTON (-7.5 at IND)

Small home favorites have been minimally profitable, small road favorites have been very vulnerable– Home favorites of 4.5-points or less are on an 11-8 SU and 10-9 ATS (52.6%) surge. Road favorites in the same line range are just 8-10 SU and 6-11-1 ATS (35.3%) in their last 18 tries.
System Matches: SLIGHT PLAY DALLAS (-3 vs MIN)

High totals have meant Unders – Of the 46 games in the last nine conference finals seasons with totals of 216.5 or higher, 28 of them have gone Under the total (60.9%).
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in BOS-IND (o/u at 222.5)

Totals in the 209-216 range have been most apt to see Over results – There have been 31 games in the last 10 conference finals series that have seen totals in this range, and 23 of them have gone Over (74.2%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in MIN-DAL (o/u at 210)

Last Game Trends

Zig-zag theory is alive and well in conference finals – Over the last three conference finals seasons’, teams coming off outright losses in conference finals games are 22-20 SU and 26-15-1 ATS (63.4%) in their 42 follow up games. Those that lost by single digits are 18-11 Under (62.1%) the total in their next game.
System Matches: PLAY INDIANA (+7.5 vs BOS), PLAY MINNESOTA (+3 at DAL), also PLAY UNDER in BOTH GAMES

Close losses and playing on the road have been a bad scenario – Teams coming off losses of 10-points or less and playing on the road are just 3-15 SU and 6-12 ATS (33.3%) in conference finals games dating back to 2014.
System Matches: FADE MINNESOTA (+3 at DAL)

Trends by Game Number

Home team Game Fours not down 0-3 are strong plays – Home teams not facing elimination in Game Four have fared very well of late, going 11-3 SU and 10-4 ATS (71.4%).
System Matches: PLAY DALLAS (-3 vs MIN)

Teams facing elimination already in Game Four have generally laid down – Conference finals Game Four teams that are facing elimination have gone just 3-5 SU & 3-4-1 ATS (42.9%) in their last eight tries. However, Boston did stave off elimination against the Heat last year.
System Matches: FADE INDIANA (+7.5 vs BOS), FADE MINNESOTA (+3 at DAL)

Home teams that won Game Three are also good Game Four bets – conference finals hosts that won Game Three are also on a 7-3 SU and ATS (70%) run in Game Four.
System Matches: PLAY DALLAS (-3 vs MIN)

Trends by Seed Number

Lay the wood with #1 seeds – Top-seeded teams have been stellar at covering big point spreads, going 27-3 SU and 18-12 ATS (60%) in the conference finals when favored by 6.5 points or more.
System Matches: PLAY BOSTON (-7.5 at IND)

#1 seeds thrive after close wins – top-seeded teams are on an 11-5 SU and ATS (68.8%) conference finals run when coming off a same series single-digit win.
System Matches: PLAY BOSTON (-7.5 at IND)

#3/4 seeds in any other line scenario has floundered of late – conference finals #3 and #4 seeds when not favored by 3.5 points or more have struggled terribly of late, going 7-25 SU and 10-20-2 ATS (33.3%) since ‘16. Similarly, they are just 8-16 ATS (33.3%) in their L24 road conference finals games.
System Matches: FADE MINNESOTA (+3 at DAL)

#3/4 seeds have bounced back well from losses – conference finals #3 and #4 seeds have responded well after losing a same series game, going 15-14 SU and 18-10-1 ATS (64.3%) in their last 29 tries.

System Matches: PLAY MINNESOTA (+3 at DAL)

Teams seeded #5 or worse have only won one CF game when favored since prior to 2013 – Teams seeded #5 or lower have lost six of their last seven games outright and ATS (14.3%) in the conference finals when favored.
System Matches: FADE DALLAS (-3 vs MIN)

Teams seeded #5 or worse have been phenomenal underdogs in the conference finals – Teams seeded #5 or lower have gone 12-13 SU and 18-7 ATS (72%) in their last 25 tries in the underdog role.
System Matches: PLAY INDIANA (+7.5 vs BOS)

#5 and lower seeded teams struggle to put back-to-back wins togetherTeams seeded #5 seeds or worse and coming off a win in a conference finals series game are just 10-18 SU and 10-17-1 ATS (37%) in the follow-up contest.
System Matches: FADE DALLAS (-3 vs MIN)

Trends by teams closing out series or facing elimination

Road teams looking to close out series have fared well – Seven of the last nine teams looking to close out a conference finals series on the road have done so, going 7-2 SU and 6-2-1 ATS (75%).
System Matches: PLAY BOSTON (-7.5 at IND)

Lay the points in closeout games – Conference finals teams looking to close out a series have gone 10-2 SU and ATS (83.3%) when favored by more than 4.5-points since 2013, outscoring opponents by 14.2 PPG.
System Matches: PLAY BOSTON (-7.5 at IND)

Closeout games have been definitive – There have been 36 different potential series closeout games in the conference finals in the last 11 seasons and outright winners are 34-1-1 ATS.

Top team specific scheduling situation trends

* INDIANA is 63-40 Over the total at home in the One Day Rest scenario over the last three seasons
5/27 vs Boston
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 222.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based upon some various team strength indicator or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NO QUALIFYING TEAM STRENGTH SYSTEMS TODAY

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 235-127 SU but just 155-196-11 ATS (44.2%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-7.5 at IND)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 231-249 SU & 213-262-5 ATS (44.8%) in the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE DALLAS (-3 vs MIN)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 52-15 SU and 41-24-2 ATS (63.1%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches: PLAY BOSTON (-7.5 at IND)

Game Four NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Game 4’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS -3 (+0.9), 2. BOSTON -7.5 (+0.6)

Game 4’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: INDIANA +7.5 (+1.9)

Game 4’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: DALLAS -3 (+0.7)

Game 4’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: BOS-IND OVER 222.5 (+2.0)

Game 4’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: MIN-DAL UNDER 210 (-0.9)

Game 4’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: DALLAS -3 (+1.0)

Game 4’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: BOS-IND OVER 222.5 (+2.9)

Game 4’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: MIN-DAL UNDER 210 (-1.0)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

Monday, May 27, 2024

(505) INDIANA at (506) BOSTON
* INDIANA has covered five of the last six ATS in the head-to-head series at Indiana
System Match: PLAY INDIANA ATS

* Over the total is 5-0 in last five of the head-to-head series
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

Tuesday, May 28, 2024

(507) DALLAS at (508) MINNESOTA
* DALLAS has covered five of the last six ATS in the head-to-head series
System Match: PLAY DALLAS ATS