The Knicks were one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference last season, finishing 50-32 and ranking fifth in the league in net rating (+4.6). They boasted top-10 adjusted offensive and defensive ratings and might have reached the Eastern Conference Finals if not for injuries. However, instead of resting on his team’s success, team president Leon Rose made two major offseason trades.
First, the Knicks traded Bojan Bogdanovic and five first-round picks to the Nets for Mikal Bridges. Then, when it became clear that New York needed another center with health concerns for Mitchell Robinson, they sent three-time All-Star Julius Randle, along with Donte DiVincenzo and a first-round pick, to the Timberwolves for four-time All-Star Karl-Anthony Towns.
With Bridges, New York’s vision is pretty clear. The team sees him and OG Anunoby forming an elite defensive wing duo. Bridges also has chemistry with Jalen Brunson and Josh Hart, his former Villanova teammates. Bridges, who averaged 19.6 points per game last season, will likely serve as New York’s secondary creator. In his time in Brooklyn, Bridges proved that he had more off-the-dribble game than he showed in Phoenix. He also shot 37.2% from 3 and that number could go up with the quality of looks he’ll get with the Knicks.
As for Towns, the fit is going to be interesting. Towns is one of the best shooters in the league. He has shot at least 40.0% from 3 in five of his nine seasons. Towns should be an awesome pick-and-pop partner for Brunson. He’s also capable of creating offense for himself. And while Towns isn’t quite as good of a playmaker as Randle, or last year’s starter Isaiah Hartenstein, he is a decent passer and New York can run some offense through him.
The problem with Towns is that he has been a minus on the defensive end for most of his career. The good news is that he’s a little better as a center than a power forward, and he’s primarily going to be the five for the Knicks. But losing Hartenstein, one of the best interior defenders in basketball, and replacing him with Towns will put the Knicks at risk of falling out of the Top 10 in defensive efficiency.
However, what the Knicks will lose on defense will be made up for on offense. New York scored 118.8 points per 100 possessions last year, but the team was pretty reliant on its 25.4% offensive rebound rate. This year’s team will be less gritty and more pretty. The Knicks are still going to lean into Brunson iso-ball, as he averaged 28.7 points and 6.7 assists per game last season. He emerged as one of the best offensive players in basketball, and he shouldn’t see much of a decline in his 31.1% usage rate. But the difference with this year’s team is that there’s now elite shooting pretty much everywhere. That gives Brunson more space to work with, which will allow him to get to his spots whenever he wants.
Anunoby, Bridges and Towns all excel as catch-and-shoot players, and even Hart, though not a sharpshooter, hit 37.3% from deep in the playoffs and can’t be left unguarded. If defenses ignore him, Hart will dominate the offensive glass.
The Knicks’ team-building strategy clearly takes aim at the Celtics, as they want to play five-out lineups and have Anunoby and Bridges to throw on Boston’s stars Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. The Knicks believe they are the second-best team in the conference and prepared for a potential seven-game shootout with the Celtics, where 3-point shooting could decide the series. “It’s a make or miss league” would be put to the ultimate test in that matchup.
While New York arguably has the best starting five in basketball, depth is a concern. Proven bench players are limited to Deuce McBride, a small 3-and-D guard, and Robinson, who will miss the early part of the season. Beyond that, the Knicks will rely on players like Precious Achiuwa and whichever rotation candidates — Cameron Payne, Landry Shamet or Tyler Kolek — step up. This lack of depth could “force” head coach Tom Thibodeau to heavily rely on his starters, but that wouldn’t be anything new. Thibs wants his favorites to play until they’re ready to puke.
Knicks Win Total Prediction
The Knicks have more upside because of the moves they made. However, it is hard to go Over on a team like this. You generally have to pay a tax to go Over on a team this popular. Also, the team did lose some of its edge, so there might not be the same nightly desire to win. On top of that, New York has some key players that will surely miss games — Anunoby and Towns are very injury prone — and the team doesn’t have the depth to overcome that. So, the Knicks should be a little worse than expected in the regular season, but they’re better equipped for the postseason — and can possibly compete for a championship.
Lean: Under 54.5 Wins (-105)
