On Monday, December 29, Denver Nuggets superstar Nikola Jokic went down with a left knee injury in a loss to the Miami Heat. Jokic, who is averaging 29.6 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 11.0 assists per game this season, hyperextended the knee when his teammate rolled into his lower leg. After it happened, some of the world’s most popular Twitter (X) doctors were weighing whether it was a torn ACL or a bone bruise. Well, on Tuesday, December 30, ESPN’s Shams Charania reported that Jokic avoided the doomsday scenario of an ACL tear. However, the superstar will miss at least four weeks of action.
If the timetable Charania reported is accurate, we probably won’t see Jokic until February. The Nuggets will take on the Toronto Raptors on Wednesday, December 31, and the team will also play 17 games in the month of January. With that in mind, we’re likely looking at 18 games without the Joker.
The length of time Jokic will miss is big when looking at awards markets. Jokic, who is averaging 29.9 points, 12.4 rebounds, and 11.1 assists per game on 60.4/44.0/85.5 shooting splits, was the MVP frontrunner heading into Monday night’s slate, sitting just above Oklahoma City Thunder superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who won the award last year, on the odds board. However, with Jokic set to miss the next couple of weeks, it’s almost a certainty that the big man won’t play the 65 games he’d need to play to be eligible to win the award. That’s why Gilgeous-Alexander is now -450 to win back-to-back MVPs at DraftKings Sportsbook, which is an implied probability of 81.82%.
If Jokic somehow manages to come back early, perhaps he can still claim his fourth MVP award. However, as of right now, this looks like a one-man race. If Gilgeous-Alexander can avoid a major injury himself, it’s likely he’ll win.
Perhaps this injury forces the NBA to look into the minimum games requirement. This rule was put in place to prevent the abuse of “load management” throughout the course of the season. However, it doesn’t seem right that a legitimate injury will derail a player’s award candidacy just because a few of the league’s more pampered stars can’t be trusted to play every night.
San Antonio Spurs star Victor Wembanyama is also at risk of falling victim to the minimum games requirement, as he should be the Defensive Player of the Year but might not play enough to take what’s rightfully his. That means two of the league’s clear-cut stars could be robbed this year.
Gilgeous-Alexander, who is averaging 32.2 points, 6.4 assists, and 1.5 steals per game, is having a great year as the focal point of a Thunder team that is 28-5 on the year. In fact, he actually leads Jokic in some major advanced stats categories. However, Jokic’s Offensive Estimated Plus-Minus of +9.2 is the highest in league history. He’s also leading the league in VORP (5.1), Box Plus-Minus (16.5), and Win Shares (8.7). On top of that, he’s on pace to become the first player in league history to lead the league in both rebounds (12.2 RPG) and assists (11.0 APG). This has simply been an all-time season from Jokic.
As far as the Nuggets go, the team should be alright. Denver is currently third in the Western Conference standings at 22-10. Things will surely get dicey over the next couple of weeks, as Jokic isn’t the only Nuggets player on the shelf. Christian Braun, Aaron Gordon, and Cameron Johnson are also injured for Denver. However, there should be roughly 30 games remaining when Jokic returns, and the team should have everybody back by the time the Serbian is on the court. That should be more than enough time for the Nuggets to rattle off wins at a high clip, which should mean avoiding the Play-In Tournament. And as long as Denver does that, the team is just as live as ever to win the NBA title. That’s why the Nuggets are still second on the odds board to win the championship. As long as Denver is in the dance, the team has a great chance.
