On Christmas Day, the Phoenix Suns host the Denver Nuggets at the Footprint Center. This should be an exciting part of the NBA’s five-game slate. Keep reading for odds, picks and player props for this game, and make sure you also check out our live VSiN programming for more analysis. Our talented hosts and analysts will surely spend some time talking about these games.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Nuggets vs. Suns
When: Wednesday, December 25th at 10:30 pm ET
Where: Footprint Center in Phoenix, Arizona
Channel: ABC / ESPN / ESPN+
Nuggets vs. Suns Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish. They can change. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Nuggets -148, Suns +124
Spread: Nuggets -3 (-108), Suns +3 (-112)
Total: Over 233.5 (-112), Under 233.5 (-108)
Nuggets vs. Suns Analysis
Barring a surprising return for Devin Booker, it’s pretty hard to imagine the Suns winning this game. These teams just met in Denver, where the Nuggets earned a 117-90 victory. That was the biggest loss of the season for Phoenix, and nothing about it felt entirely fluky. That’s why the Suns have gone from -1 to +3 in this game.
The Suns are now 2-6 in their last eight games, and they have completely fallen apart defensively. Over the last eight games, only two teams have a worse defensive rating than Phoenix’s 122.3. The main culprit has been an inability to defend the 3-point line. In this recent stretch, Phoenix is allowing 15.9 made 3s per game. Opponents are also shooting 40.6% from deep. The Suns are making massive scouting report mistakes, leaving good shooters completely open. That’s why a Nuggets team that doesn’t even shoot the 3 all that well went 16 for 41 from deep on Monday. And as long as Phoenix is unorganized and scrambling defensively, Nikola Jokic will be able to pick the team apart.
The Suns have absolutely no answer for Jokic inside, as evidenced by him scoring 32 points on 12 for 17 shooting from the floor last game. But Jokic’s court vision and all-time passing ability is just as much of a weapon against Phoenix, as he will always find his teammates in places to score.
Even a Herculean effort from Kevin Durant would be meaningless in this matchup, which we saw in the last game. Durant was cooking while the game was still somewhat in reach, but it wasn’t enough for the Suns to keep the Nuggets from pulling away. Durant will need help from his teammates on both ends of the floor, and that doesn’t seem likely with no Booker — or Grayson Allen.
In addition to being high on Denver to win this game outright, I also think it’s worth keeping an eye on halftime numbers. The Suns have a third quarter point differential of -3.3 this year, while the Nuggets have a third quarter point differential of +2.6. So, if you can grab a decent number on Denver to win the third quarter, that’s another way to attack this.
However, I’d advise against going Over the total in this one. The number continues to go up, but I wouldn’t want to bank on a lot of points here. Denver might not shoot quite as well as it did at home the other night, and Phoenix’s offense is a mess right now. The Under is also 9-6 in the 15 games the Suns have played at home this season, and it’s 9-6 when the team has faced teams with winning records.
Nuggets vs. Suns Player Props
Nikola Jokic Over 28.5 Points (-125)
Jokic just had 32 points on 17 shots against the Suns, making it feel pretty likely he’s going to go for 30 or so again on Wednesday. The Suns play some of the worst interior defense in the NBA, so there’s not going to be much resistance when Jokic tries to score around the rim. Also, one would think that Mike Budenholzer will drill the importance of defending the 3-point line into this players. And if the Suns are a little more active in closing out and guarding off the ball, Jokic will just put his head down and be a little more aggressive as a scorer. While Jokic hasn’t been aggressive as a scorer against Phoenix in the past, it’s clear this year is a little different for the big man. Denver’s supporting cast is worse, meaning Jokic has to be great every night. Christmas Day shouldn’t be any different.
Nuggets vs. Suns Pick
It’s just hard to find reasons to like the Suns right now. I’m actually a Phoenix fan and don’t like going against the team, but this just feels like too good of an opportunity to pass up. The Suns should figure things out when Booker returns, and their schedule is manageable in the coming weeks. I was looking through it earlier and think it’s realistic that Phoenix will be 25-20 at the 45-game mark. But this is one of the matchups that will likely get away.
Bet: Nuggets -2.5 (-110)
