Oklahoma City Thunder season preview
This preview originally appeared in our 2023-24 VSiN NBA Betting Guide, which was released on Thursday, October 5. To become a VSiN Pro subscriber and get all of our NBA coverage throughout the season, click here.
Thunder Betting Odds
NBA Finals: +10000
Conference: +5000
Division: +800
Win Total: 43.5
Playoffs: Yes (-135)
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Team Analysis
There is no hotter commodity this offseason in the NBA than the Oklahoma City Thunder, and for good reason. The Thunder are 96-66-4 ATS (59.2%) over the last two seasons, and they have one of the best young players in the league in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on the roster. This season, the betting market is expecting a strong leap into contention for a top-six seed in the Western Conference, and it is hard to argue against such expectations.
First and foremost, the Thunder have the key piece in a burgeoning superstar that is Gilgeous-Alexander. He ranked in the 93rd percentile at his position in points per 100 shot attempts (125.9), the 93rd percentile in offensive efficiency differential (+6.8) and finished fourth in scoring (31.4 points per game).
For a team to contend it needs a ball-dominant star who can score at every level, and Gilgeous-Alexander can do that. He even showed an improved stepback 3-point jumper in the FIBA World Cup, which would be an incredible addition to his offensive arsenal, as he shot just 35.8% from deep last season and only took 10% of his attempts from that area of the floor.
The team also has a brilliant roster of young talent surrounding Gilgeous-Alexander.
Josh Giddey is a brilliant offensive player who averaged 16.6 points, 7.9 rebounds and 6.2 assists in his sophomore season. His efficiency from deep can improve – he shot 32.5% on 3.1 attempts – but he’s a great facilitator who can run the offense at an effective level.
Luguentz Dort is an extremely talented defender who can take on the best perimeter scorer on any team in the league, including the likes of Luka Doncic. He is not an insanely efficient shooter, but he shot 39.8% from the corners last season, so teams must account for him as a spot-up shooter.
Jalen Williams emerged as an incredible talent last season as well and pushed Paolo Banchero for Rookie of the Year. He averaged 14.1 points, 4.5 rebounds and 3.3 assists on 52.1% shooting from the floor. Williams also proved to be an effective offensive rebounder who grabbed 3.6% of his teammates’ missed shots last season.
There is no denying this roster is laden with talent, and the returns for bettors have been tremendous. So, it is no surprise that this team is favored to make the postseason and has a win total on par with a team like Sacramento that won the third seed in the Western Conference last season. However, it’s not a perfect team, and there are some issues the Thunder must figure out if they are to meet the expectations thrust upon them this season.
Oklahoma City struggled to find scoring options outside of Gilgeous-Alexander last season. He led the team with 31.4 points per game but was just one of four double-digit scorers for the Thunder last season. When he left the floor, Oklahoma City went from 117.6 points per 100 possessions to 110.8 and their net rating suffered by 4.2 points per 100 possessions in those minutes.
This team does have concerns on defense as well.
Dort might be an elite on-ball defender, but the team’s defensive rating suffered with Gilgeous-Alexander and Giddey on the floor. Giddey in particular – due to his lack of quick-twitch speed and athleticism – was constantly taken advantage of by quicker perimeter players. They allowed 114.5 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time last season, and they allowed the 10th-highest frequency of wide-open 3-point attempts.
Chet Holmgren’s presence should help ease some of the defensive concerns, especially regarding rim protection. Holmgren averaged 3.5 blocks in Summer League play and practiced with Team USA as part of the select team, which allowed him to work on his game. Oklahoma City desperately needed a center last season, and Holmgren fills a massive need.
Despite the defensive concerns, this team will be extremely productive this season. The concern from a betting standpoint is that the value has been sucked out by the popularity this season. Oklahoma City was able to cover games at such a high rate because they were underdogs in only 32 games in the last two seasons. This season, the percentage of games they will be favored will be much higher, likely leading to a depressed ATS record.
Win Total Analysis
Not only has Oklahoma City cashed numerous tickets at the window, but it has also served those who bet over its win total in recent years well. The Thunder have gone over their win total each of the last two seasons, and last year they cashed the over by the 49th game of the season. However, much like the value potentially being gone on a nightly basis, the value could be gone on this total.
Oklahoma City’s win totals in the last two seasons closed at 23.5 and 22.5 respectively. This season, the team’s win total is nearly twice as high at 43.5 at DraftKings. This is obviously a massive change from last season, especially for a team that returns largely intact. Is such an adjustment actually warranted?
The Thunder do not have a particularly easy schedule either.
Positive Residual has Oklahoma City with the 13th hardest schedule in the NBA. They have a negative net rest advantage (-2) and 14 back-to-backs on the schedule. Their 12 games with a true rest disadvantage are tied with five other teams as being the second-most in the league as well. For a young team that might not weigh too heavily, but it is an important factor to account for.
As is the overall popularity of this team. It feels as if coming in and betting this team over its win total at the current number is the epitome of buying at the top of the market. The Thunder will compete for a playoff seed this season, but asking the same team that won 40 games last season to improve by four or more wins in an improved conference does not seem like the right action to take.
Win Total Recommendation: UNDER 43.5
