Life comes at you fast in the NBA. Two years ago, the Oklahoma City Thunder were raising the Larry O’Brien Trophy, and many were planning for a dynasty and multiple championships. The latter could still happen, but it was put on pause last season when Oklahoma City was unceremoniously bounced in the Western Conference Finals by San Antonio.
What followed was an offseason in which the Thunder roster underwent some changes. Lu Dort, Isaiah Joe, and Aaron Wiggins were sent off in trades due to financial restrictions caused by the extensions of Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren kicking in. Oklahoma City still has championship potential, but it’s never good when finances inspire offseason change. Can the internal promotions on this roster keep the team at the level it expects to be at?
BURNING QUESTIONS
Will Oklahoma City finally be able to find its shooting stroke?
Yes, the Thunder are a good three-point shooting team, but they are not a great three-point shooting team, and that showed in each of the last two seasons, specifically in the playoffs. Oklahoma City’s shooting took a dip in the regular season last year, as it fell from 38.2% as a team to 36.6%. In the postseason, the Thunder shot 29.8% from deep in losses. They shot 32.0% in the postseason prior to that. It has been a consistent issue for a team as talented as Oklahoma City is. Now, they must figure out that issue with the losses of Dort, Joe, and Wiggins, all of whom were key shooters on this roster. Joe and Wiggins shot 42% and 36% from deep, respectively, last season. That is a massive loss. There are pieces in place to replace them — Cason Wallace and Ajay Mitchell — but both were on the roster last season. It certainly is not a positive for the Thunder to have to replace those three, especially when the same issue has popped up in each of the last two seasons.
Is it fair to ask more of Holmgren?
It seems like an insane question on its surface. Holmgren is coming off a season in which he set career highs in points per game (17.1), rebounds per game (8.9), and field goal percentage (55.7%). In his minutes on the floor, the Thunder’s net rating improved by 9.5 points per 100 possessions, and they allowed 8.7 fewer points. But in the postseason, that production dipped. Holmgren’s points per game dropped 14.9, and he shot just 35.7% from deep. He averaged 0.4 fewer blocks per contest. But most importantly, he disappeared in the Western Conference Finals. Against San Antonio, Holmgren averaged 10.7 points and 7.1 rebounds and shot just 27.3% from beyond the arc. That cannot happen to someone set to make $41.2 million. It could just be one bad series for Holmgren, but we all remember what we saw last, and what we saw was not good. With a thinner roster — in part due to that $41.2 million — more should be expected of the Thunder big man.
Do the Thunder have two burgeoning stars set for bigger roles?
One of the biggest surprises in a disappointing season for Oklahoma City was the emergence of Mitchell. The former Santa Barbara guard doubled up his points-per-game output to 13.6 points on 5.3 more shot attempts per game. But it was more than that. Thrust into a larger role in the postseason, Mitchell responded. In the series win over Los Angeles, the second-year pro averaged 22.5 points on 56.3% shooting from the floor. The Thunder hope a larger role will mean great things for Mitchell, but he is hardly the only rising star. Many have been waiting for the emergence of Wallace. Once a lottery selection, Wallace has shown his impact on both ends of the floor, but now he is likely stepping into a starting role with the changes this roster has gone through in the offseason. Wallace’s shooting dipped to 35.1% last season and has quietly declined each season since his rookie year. That will need to be picked back up, but he’s a strong defender who averaged 1.9 steals per game last season. If he can crack double digits in scoring, the Thunder might be in good hands despite the offseason losses.
WIN TOTAL RECOMMENDATION: Over 61.5
