Last season, the Magic finished 47-35, securing the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference, a significant leap from their 34-48 record in 2022-23. The improvement was driven by a strong defense and the continued development of their young core. Orlando went from 16th in the NBA in adjusted defensive rating two seasons ago to third last year.
Jalen Suggs and Franz Wagner were instrumental in this defensive transformation. Suggs is one of the league’s best point-of-attack defenders, while Wagner excels as a wing defender. Adding to this, Wendell Carter Jr. is a solid defender at center, and Jonathan Isaac, despite limited minutes last season (15.8 per game), made a huge defensive impact off the bench. In the playoffs, Isaac’s minutes increased to 21.0 per game, and with him further removed from the ACL injury he suffered in 2019-20, he could see more consistent playing time this year.
Head coach Jamahl Mosley’s system has maximized the team’s defensive potential, and their offseason moves promise even more improvement. The signing of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to a three-year, $66 million deal was one of the highlights of NBA free agency. Known as one of the best 3-and-D shooting guards in the league, Caldwell-Pope will form a tough backcourt pairing with Suggs. This duo should keep opposing teams on edge, and it’s likely the Magic will maintain their top-five defensive standing.
Caldwell-Pope’s shooting is also a critical addition to Orlando’s offense, which ranked just 22nd in adjusted offensive rating last season. The Magic struggled from deep, ranking 27th in 3-point frequency and 25th in accuracy. Caldwell-Pope, a career 36.9% 3-point shooter, has shot over 40.0% from beyond the arc in three of the last four seasons. His floor-spacing ability will open up the offense without sacrificing any defense.
The improved shooting around Paolo Banchero will be key for Orlando’s offensive success. Banchero isn’t as prominent defensively but stands out as one of the best young offensive players in the league. Last season, he averaged 22.6 points, 6.9 rebounds and 5.4 assists, despite being the focal point of the opposing team’s scouting report. Banchero’s unique blend of size (6-foot-10, 250 pounds), ball-handling and driving ability makes him a difficult matchup. His pull-up shooting is also improving, and his performance in last year’s playoffs was particularly impressive. Against the Cavaliers, Banchero averaged 27.0 points per game and was a major reason the Magic forced a seven-game series despite the struggles of his teammates.
With more floor spacing this season, Banchero’s offensive efficiency should improve, as teams will find it harder to overload defenders on him.
While making another substantial jump in the win column may be tough, the Magic winning 50 games is within reach. More importantly, they have the potential to make a deep run in the Eastern Conference Playoffs.
Wagner’s 3-point shooting will be a critical factor in determining the Magic’s ceiling. Wagner shot 35.4% from deep in his rookie season and improved to 36.1% in 2022-23. However, last season saw a sharp decline as he shot only 28.1% from beyond the arc, a surprising drop given his free throw percentage was up at 85.0%. Wagner is still an excellent all-around player, but with the Eastern Conference loaded with talent, the Magic need him firing on all cylinders.
If Wagner can regain some semblance of an outside shot, Orlando will have the firepower to compete with the elite teams in the conference, such as Boston, Philadelphia, New York and Milwaukee, in any playoff series.
Magic Win Total Prediction
With the Magic coming off a 47-win season and having added one of the best free agents on the market, I can see why it makes sense to back Orlando to go Over 47.5 — especially with this roster being loaded with absolute dogs. Having said that, I just wouldn’t be surprised if the Magic settle on 45-47 wins. However, I do expect Orlando to be a much better basketball team this season. Getting out of the first round should be the goal, and expectations could be a little higher if Wagner’s jumper comes around.
Lean: Under 47.5 Wins (-108)
