On Wednesday, May 21st, the Indiana Pacers head to Madison Square Garden to take on the New York Knicks in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Keep reading for odds, predictions and best bets for this exciting showdown, but make sure you also check out the VSiN NBA Playoffs Betting Hub for the rest of our written content. We have a ton of people breaking down the action in the postseason. We’re also talking ball regularly on our live programming, so now is a great time to be a VSiN subscriber.
How To Watch Pacers vs. Knicks – Game 1
Where: Madison Square Garden in New York, New York
When: 8:00 pm ET on Wednesday, May 21st
Channel: TNT / Max
Pacers vs. Knicks Odds – Game 1
(Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and accurate as of Tuesday, May 20th at 11:30 am ET)
Moneyline: Knicks -180, Pacers +150
Spread: Knicks -4.5 (-110), Pacers +4.5 (-110)
Total: Over 223 (-110), Under 223 (-110)
Pacers vs. Knicks Prediction – Game 1
The pace of this series could very well determine who advances to the NBA Finals. Indiana hasn’t exactly played fast since the start of the postseason, as the team’s pace is 99.27 through 10 games. That would have been good for only 18th in the NBA during the regular season, but it’s the third-fastest pace since the start of the playoffs. However, the Pacers are likely going to look to turn things up a notch in the Eastern Conference Finals. One of the few advantages Indiana has over New York is depth, as the Pacers have nine players playing at least 13.0 minutes per game in the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Knicks only have seven players averaging double digits in minutes since the start of the postseason. So, if Indiana can push the ball up the floor and suck New York into a track meet, the team might be able to physically wear the Knicks out over the course of this best-of-seven series. We saw a bit of that when the Pacers beat them in a tight-seven game series last year. New York’s rotation players were dropping like flies, suffering injuries left and right. That might have had something to do with workload.
Considering all of that, I expect Tyrese Haliburton to push the tempo and look for quick hit-ahead passes as often as possible, and I think most of Indiana’s rotation players will be encouraged to dribble the ball up the floor after rebounds. I also wouldn’t be shocked if Rick Carlisle has his guards apply full-court pressure on Jalen Brunson, as that’s another minor thing that can tire him out a bit.
The interesting thing is that New York is going to look to do the opposite of that. The Knicks are going to take their time getting the ball up the floor, looking to bleed some of the shot clock and take the Pacers out of rhythm. If this is a series that is played at a slow pace, New York will trust in what it has defensively and expect Brunson to win games with his ability to knock down tough shots late. That has been the recipe for success for the Knicks throughout the playoffs, as their postseason pace of 95.30 would have been the slowest in basketball over the course of the regular season.
We probably won’t see one of the two teams winning the stylistic battle in every game of the series. Some will be played a little faster while some will be played a little slower. But I tend to think the home teams will do a better job of dictating play, which is part of the reason I’m playing the Under in Game 1. However, I will say that it doesn’t hurt that this number opened at 222 and got all the way up to 224.5. That movement was what ultimately triggered a play for me, as 2.5 is a pretty big jump when thinking about how efficient the oddsmakers are at this time of the year. Our analytics guru Steve Makinen has an estimated line of 222.6 for this one, which is a pretty significant edge to the Under.
The Under is also 7-5 in the 12 games the Knicks have played in the playoffs, so they have primarily been an Under team this postseason. The Under is also 51-36-1 when New York is a home favorite of 6 or fewer points under Tom Thibodeau.
It also doesn’t hurt that these teams should be very familiar with one another after having played that seven-game series last year. Players become more familiar with who they’re guarding the more they see them, making it a little easier to get stops.
Bet: Under 224.5 (-110)
