On Christmas Day, the New York Knicks host the San Antonio Spurs at Madison Square Garden. This should be an exciting part of the NBA’s five-game slate. Keep reading for odds, picks and player props for this game, and make sure you also check out our live VSiN programming for more analysis. Our talented hosts and analysts will surely spend some time talking about these games.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Spurs vs. Knicks
When: Wednesday, December 25th at 12:00 pm ET
Where: Madison Square Garden in New York, New York
Channel: ABC / ESPN / ESPN+
Spurs vs. Knicks Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish. They can change. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Knicks -380, Spurs +300
Spread: Knicks -9 (-110), Spurs +9 (-110)
Total: Over 224 (-108), Under 224 (-112)
Spurs vs. Knicks Analysis
The Spurs are coming off a bad loss to the 76ers. Philadelphia lost Joel Embiid to an ejection pretty early in the game, but San Antonio wasn’t able to capitalize. The loss prevented the Spurs from winning their third game in a row, but they’re still 4-2 straight-up in their last six games. They have also covered in three consecutive contests. The problem is that New York has won four in a row, and the team covered in all of those games. The Knicks have also won three straight games by double digits.
This season, New York has a net rating of +7.7. That’s the fifth-best mark in the league. San Antonio’s net rating is just -1.5, which is 16th in the NBA. However, the Knicks have a net rating of +11.5 when playing at Madison Square Garden, and the Spurs’ road net rating is a miserable -5.6. So, when looking at this game and seeing a spread of 9 or 9.5, it might seem like a good idea to jump on San Antonio at first. But when looking at home/away numbers, you start to see where the oddsmakers might be trying to trap bettors.
The Knicks have also thrived in these games under Tom Thibodeau. With him as coach, New York is 61-43-1 against the spread as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Meanwhile, since the start of last season, San Antonio is just 8-16 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. The team is also just 11-17 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points since then.
It’s also pretty easy to look at the on-court matchups and see this game going well for the Knicks. While Chris Paul has been good for the Spurs this season, he doesn’t stand a chance in a matchup against Jalen Brunson. The Knicks guard is capable of torching bigger defenders, and he does a lot of it in the post. Imagine what he can do to a player his size.
New York also has a big advantage on the wing, where Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby will be the two best forwards on the court. And for as good as Victor Wembanyama has been this year, the Knicks are one of the few teams in the league that could have a better player than him at the center spot. Karl-Anthony Towns has been unbelievable all year. And if he’s knocking down shots in this game, he’s going to pull Wembanyama away from the basket and make it impossible for San Antonio to prevent New York from running a layup line at the rim. Towns just needs to try and contain his excitement on the defensive end, as he can be guilty of picking up cheap fouls. The Knicks need him in this game, so he needs to try and stay out of foul trouble.
For those looking at the total, it’s a little tougher than the spread. This game should be played at a relatively slow pace. The Knicks are 26th in the NBA in pace, and the Spurs are just 13th. So, neither one of these teams will be looking to speed up and down the floor. However, going Under on New York’s games can be a risky proposition. While the Knicks are just t-10th in the NBA in made 3s per game (14.5), they can burn ’em from deep. They’re second in the NBA in 3-point percentage (39.8%). So, if the Spurs aren’t closing out then they’ll make them pay, and this game will start to creep into shootout territory. And that’s especially true if the Knicks don’t lock in defensively, which can happen with this team.
Spurs vs. Knicks Player Props
Devin Vassell Over 2.5 Made 3s (+120)
The Knicks have been making some strides defensively, but they’re still just 15th in the league in adjusted defensive rating. They also allow 13.7 triples per game. That puts them in the bottom half of the league in 3-point defense, and a lot of that has to do with the team struggling to guard opposing shooting guards. We just saw Gradey Dick go 2 for 5 from deep against New York, and he could have had more if Toronto had sturdier play at the point guard position. Well, the player that would benefit most from the Knicks sleeping against two-guards is Devin Vassell. The 24-year-old is back in the Spurs starting lineup, and he has played at least 30 minutes in three of his last five games. Vassell has also made at least three 3s in five of his last 11 games.
The only issue with this play is that Vassell can occasionally be gun-shy from deep. He has taken just nine total 3s over the last two games. But this is a good matchup for a shooter, and Vassell is making 39.5% of his 3s. Even in a loss, I think he can be a dangerous. If you take this, you’ll just have to hope the game doesn’t completely get out of hand.
Spurs vs. Knicks Pick
I’ll be sitting out the first game of the Christmas Day slate. I think New York should cover the 9-point spread, but I am a little nervous about Towns picking up a cheap foul or two early. That would then give San Antonio a massive advantage at the center spot, where Wembanyama would be able to torture New York backup Precious Achiuwa — unless Thibodeau were to go small and try Anunoby on the Spurs star. You don’t want to give Paul, one of the brightest players in league history, a mismatch to attack. So, I’m passing here, but I’m looking forward to watching it.
Lean: Knicks -9 (-110)
