Heading into the 2025-26 NBA season, the battered Eastern Conference was a main talking point. With Jayson Tatum and Tyrese Haliburton suffering torn Achilles tendons in last year’s NBA Playoffs, the Boston Celtics and Indiana Pacers were seemingly wiped out of the title picture. That left the New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers as the favorites to reach the 2025-26 NBA Finals, and everyone was scrambling to figure out who would muscle their way into the conversation.
Nearly a quarter of the way into the year, it’s clear the Detroit Pistons, currently 17-4 and sitting atop the Eastern Conference standings, need to be taken seriously. Detroit is currently 11th in the NBA in adjusted offensive rating (115.6) and sixth in adjusted defensive rating (112.5). The Pistons have been awesome on both ends of the floor, and the emergence of Jalen Duren has moved their timeline up a bit.
Duren actually has the highest Estimated Plus-Minus (+4.1) on the team, performing slightly better than All-Star Cade Cunningham (+3.9). But having two high-caliber players like that makes Detroit a real player in the conference, and it’ll be interesting to see if the Pistons are aggressive at the deadline. There’s a universal agreement amongst members of the NBA media that Detroit should swing for Lauri Markkanen. He’d give them the extra firepower and scoring punch they need, and they won’t have to sacrifice their size and toughness. If they can pull off a move like that, they’d become the team to beat.
The Knicks are currently second in the standings, as they’re 13-6 to start the year. However, while the records say they’re No. 2, this is the top dog in the East right now. The Knicks have the highest adjusted net rating (+5.5) in the conference, ranking third in adjusted offensive rating (119.4) and 12th in adjusted defensive rating (113.9). Things are starting to really click under Mike Brown.
I mentioned this on Hardwood Handicappers, but Brown wanted the Knicks to play faster, move the ball more, and rely less on Jalen Brunson. Well, New York is still going to Brunson a ton, as his usage rate is up from 32.4% last year to 33.3% this year. But the small tweaks Brown made are helping, and he’s now starting to bake in some of what already worked for this roster. Now, Brunson’s EPM is up from +2.6 last year to +4.2 this year. And Karl-Anthony Towns, who had been somewhat up-and-down since heading to the Big Apple, is balling out. His EPM is up from +3.4 to +3.8, and he has been a little better on the defensive end. Also, the Knicks have a point differential of +11.2 with Brunson and Towns on the floor together. That number was down at +6.3 last year.
New York is only going to get sharper and sharper offensively, as Brown is learning what works on the fly — and seems to be learning that more Brunson-Towns pick-and-roll plays benefits everyone. The big question with the Knicks is, will they be a league-average defense all year? If they are, health is probably the only thing keeping them from reaching the finals.
As far as the Cavaliers go, the team is off to a pretty rocky start. Cleveland is just 13-9 at the moment, and the team is struggling to live up to last year’s standards offensively. Darius Garland, who is still dealing with all kinds of toe problems, is a big part of that. He’s down from 20.6 points per game to 14.7 points per game, and he’s shooting just 37.5% from the floor. Cleveland has also had guys in and out of the lineup. Of course, there’s a decent chance everything stabilizes as the Cavaliers get bodies back, and they’re still the betting favorites to emerge from the Eastern Conference. However, that doesn’t seem like a bet worth taking.
When looking at some of the chalkier options right now, it’s hard not to like the Knicks the most. There’s real balance to New York’s rotation this season, Brunson is still one of the best shot-makers on the planet, and you know this team is going to fight like hell every single night. That’s a comforting feeling when you’re putting your hard-earned money on the line.
Still, it might make sense to avoid some of the popular teams if betting this conference. The Miami Heat, currently 14-7 and 11th in the league in adjusted net rating (+2.7), have been impressive. Tyler Herro has only played four games this season, but the Heat have still managed to take the league by storm with their new pick-less offense. Miami is only 16th in the league in adjusted offensive rating (114.7), but the team is first in pace (106.5). The shot-making will get better as Herro gets more comfortable in the new system, and that makes the Heat intriguing. They’re still an elite defensive team (111.9 aDRTG — 5th in NBA), so a small leap offensively would give them one of the best statistical profiles of anybody in the conference. Throw in Erik Spoelstra’s ability to out-scheme pretty much anyone in a playoff series and Miami could be in business.
The Orlando Magic are also starting to look like the team people fell in love with after the Desmond Bane acquisition. After a slow start to the season on the defensive end, the Magic are now third in adjusted defensive rating (111.8). They’re back to locking in and beating up on opponents, but they’re also ninth in the league in adjusted offensive rating (116.3). That’s where this Orlando team is different than previous ones. The Magic have been unable to crack the league’s top-20 in offensive efficiency for over a decade, but this year’s team can score. Bane is knocking down shots and creating offense for himself, Franz Wagner is a killer off the bounce, and everybody else has made minor strides with their games — with Anthony Black being one that deserves major praise. Jamahl Mosley just needs to find a way to get Paolo Banchero acclimated when he’s back from injury. The Magic have looked better without him, but they’re going to need his shot-making in the postseason.
There’s also the Toronto Raptors, Atlanta Hawks, Boston Celtics, and Philadelphia 76ers. These teams might be on the outside looking in, but you can’t write any of them off.
Toronto is currently 14-7 and sits in the top-10 in halfcourt offensive efficiency (118.1) and top-5 in halfcourt defensive efficiency (111.7). That makes this a team that nobody will want to play in the postseason.
The Hawks have been superb defensively, ranking eighth in the NBA in adjusted defensive rating (113.1). They’re also 13th in adjusted offensive rating (115.0), despite Trae Young having only played five games this season. Will Young be able to give the team a boost when he returns? Atlanta can use his ability to make plays as a pick-and-roll ball handler, and his ability to create offense for himself can also help. However, Young is going to need to do it in the flow of the offense, and he can’t stick out like a sore thumb on defense. This team has played too well without him, and this front office likely feels this is Young’s last chance to show he can be part of the long-term core. If not, the Hawks will build everything around Jalen Johnson, who has finally made his All-Star leap. He’s averaging 23.2 points, 10.0 rebounds, 7.3 assists, and 1.6 steals per game this season, and his jumper is a bigger weapon than ever — making him the most efficient version of himself.
Boston has gotten some outrageous play out of Jaylen Brown, who has the Celtics at No. 4 in the league in adjusted offensive rating (117.9). That would have sounded impossible heading into the season, as Boston got rid of a ton of guys and also has Tatum working his way back from a devastating injury. But Brown has turned into a killer, and the C’s are still firing away from deep. They have also been just good enough defensively to stay above .500. Can Boston win the East with the team that’s on the floor right now? Absolutely not. But ask me again if the Celtics still have a winning record come February. If they add Tatum to the mix, they’ll be live to win the East. And that no longer seems unrealistic, as he’s attacking his rehab like a mad-man and the team is playing well enough to give Brad Stevens a reason to at least consider playing him.
Then there’s Philadelphia. Joel Embiid’s health is always going to be a concern, and he has been in and out of the lineup all year. He also hasn’t looked any good when he has been on the floor. But if they can somehow get him right at the right time, they have a shot at doing something special. Tyrese Maxey has emerged as a top-10 player in the league, and this supporting cast — including exciting rookie VJ Edgecombe — is ready to go. That means there’s still a tiny bit of value when looking at Philadelphia on the futures market.
This conference has just been fascinating to follow early in the year — and I didn’t even mention Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Milwaukee Bucks. As of this very moment, the Knicks look like a decent play to win the East at +450. But I wouldn’t fault anybody for taking some chances further down the board, and I’ll be sifting through the numbers all year to try and find some value. Last year, the Pacers emerged as a clear value play thanks to a lengthy stretch with an elite advanced stats profile. I’m hoping somebody else does it this year.
