Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Friday, April 3, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Teams having lost their last four games or more have been fantastic in the rare role of playing as road favorites, going 53-17 SU and 47-21-2 ATS (69.1%) in their last 70 tries.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (-5.5 at SAC)
* Over the total is 9-2 in the Jazz-Rockets series since the start of 2023
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-HOU (o/u at 233.5)
* NBA teams that come off a game in which they lost as home favorites flush that result quickly when next a road favorite, going 182-85 SU and 148-115-4 ATS (56.3%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-13.5 at MEM)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.
* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario were 77-61 SU and 75-62 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back home games since the start of last season
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+15.5 at CHA)
* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario are 230-295 SU but 290-227-8 ATS vs. teams in 2 Days Rest games over the last four seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-16.5 at BKN), CHICAGO (+15.5 at NYK)
* ATLANTA is 140-111 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since November 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-BKN (o/u at 225.5)
* MINNESOTA is 23-7 Over the total playing in the back-to-back away scenario since December 2020
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-PHI (o/u at 233.5)
* ORLANDO is 122-98 Under the total playing in all One Day Rest games since March 2022
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ORL-DAL (o/u at 238.5)
* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario were 119-97 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last season
* MILWAUKEE is 28-11 Over the total playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since January 2025
System/Trend Match (PLAY OVER): BOS-MIL (o/u at 216.5)
* UTAH is 108-78 Over the total playing in One Day Rest games since November 2022
* HOUSTON is 24-13 Under the total (64.9%) at home this season
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in UTA-HOU (o/u at 233.5)
* PHILADELPHIA is 9-0 Under the total (100%) in Friday games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIN-PHI (o/u at 233.5)
* TORONTO is 16-4 SU and 15-5 ATS (75%) on the road versus teams that currently have losing records
* MEMPHIS is 12-7 SU and 13-6 ATS playing in 4th Straight Home games since December 2021
Trends Match: 1 PLAY ON TORONTO, 1 PLAY ON MEMPHIS
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(545) INDIANA at (546) CHARLOTTE
* Under the total has converted in the last five matchups between Indiana and Charlotte at the Spectrum Center
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-CHA (o/u at 234.5)
(547) MINNESOTA at (548) PHILADELPHIA
* Over the total is 11-3-1 in the last 15 of the Twolves-76ers series in Philadelphia
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-PHI (o/u at 233.5)
(549) ATLANTA at (550) BROOKLYN
* BROOKLYN is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 games with Atlanta
Trend Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (+16.5 vs ATL)
(551) CHICAGO at (552) NEW YORK
* CHICAGO is 6-1 ATS in the last seven matchups with NYK
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (+15.5 at NYK)
(553) UTAH at (554) HOUSTON
* Over the total is 9-2 in the Jazz-Rockets series since the start of 2023
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-HOU (o/u at 233.5)
(555) TORONTO at (556) MEMPHIS
* Favorites have won and covered all three matchups between Toronto and Memphis since the start of last season
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-13.5 at MEM)
(557) BOSTON at (558) MILWAUKEE
* Under the total has converted in the last seven of the BOS-MIL series
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-MIL (o/u at 216.5)
(559) ORLANDO at (560) DALLAS
* Under the total is 5-1 in the last six of the Magic-Mavericks series
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ORL-DAL (o/u at 238.5)
(561) NEW ORLEANS at (562) SACRAMENTO
* NEW ORLEANS is 9-3 SU and 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games with Sacramento
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (-5.5 at SAC)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 100-42 SU and 87-54-1 ATS (61.7%).
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (-5.5 at SAC)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 141-116 (54.9%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 276-230 (54.5%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 354-283 (55.6%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – IND-CHA (spread -15.5, total 234.5), ATL-BKN (spread +16.5, total 225.5), CHI-NYK (spread -15.5, total 237.5), UTA-HOU (spread -17.5, total 233.5), TOR-MEM (spread +13.5, total 233.5), BOS-MIL (spread +17.5, total 216.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.
Back-to-back scoring outbursts could be the beginning of a trend
NBA teams coming off back-to-back wins in which they scored 130+ points in each outing have gone 105-68 SU and 93-78-2 ATS (54.4%) in the follow-up contest since 2018, including 35-21 ATS (62.5%) as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+15.5 at CHA)
Road favorites bounce back after losing as home favorite
NBA teams that come off a game in which they lost as home favorites flush that result quickly when next a road favorite, going 182-85 SU and 148-115-4 ATS (56.3%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-13.5 at MEM)
Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 349-265 SU but 283-316-15 ATS (47.2%) over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE ATS): SACRAMENTO (+5.5 vs NOP)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 206-219 SU and 197-218-10 ATS (47.5%) in that next contest over the last seven seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-17.5 at MIL), INDIANA (+15.5 at CHA)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #1:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 159-29 SU but 81-104-3 ATS (43.8%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE ATS): HOUSTON (-17.5 vs UTA)
NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been fantastic in the rare role of playing as road favorites, going 53-17 SU and 47-21-2 ATS (69.1%) in their last 70 tries.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (-5.5 at SAC)
NBA Streak Betting System #10:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 121-147 SU but 150-116-3 ATS (56.4%) surge.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO (+15.5 at NYK), NEW ORLEANS (-5.5 at SAC), UTAH (+17.5 at HOU)
NBA Streak Betting System #13:
When teams on alternate streaks of at least 4 games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 39-98 SU but 75-62 ATS (54.7%) over the last five seasons.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): UTAH (+17.5 at HOU)
NBA Streak Betting System #14:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 332-377-4 ATS (46.8%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more have been bad in road games, going 44-174 SU and 97-115-6 ATS (45.8%).
System Match (FADE): UTAH (+17.5 at HOU)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in 2025-26, so perhaps tread lightly. Even still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): ATLANTA, TORONTO, BOSTON, NEW ORLEANS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 135-106 ATS record (56%). This has netted +18.4 units and an ROI of 7.6%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 241 games was only about 5.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, DALLAS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last 3+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been mildly successful, as they are 461-417 ATS (52.5%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed just over a 50% success rate, they were about 2.5% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +2.3 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): TORONTO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 579-508 ATS record, good for 54.2%. This is over a 4% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +20.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHARLOTTE, ATLANTA, NEW YORK, BOSTON, NEW ORLEANS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 409-367 (52.7%) for +5.3 units and an ROI of +0.7% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – UTA-HOU, TOR-MEM, NOP-SAC
UNDER – ORL-DAL
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit more than 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 408-345 (54.2%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 398-359 (52.6%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY): OVER – BOS-MIL
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BROOKLYN +16.5 (+1.7)
2. MEMPHIS +13.5 (+0.8)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON -17.5 (+3.4)
2. PHILADELPHIA -2.5 (+2.2)
3. BOSTON -17.5 (+2.1)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEMPHIS +13.5 (+5.1)
2. DALLAS +6.5 (+2.7)
3. UTAH +17.5 (+2.0)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHILADELPHIA -2.5 (+2.0)
2. CHARLOTTE -15.5 (+0.8)
3. NEW YORK -15.5 (+0.7)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORL-DAL OVER 238.5 (+2.4)
2. BOS-MIL OVER 216.5 (+0.7)
3. IND-CHA OVER 234.5 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATL-BKN UNDER 225.5 (-2.5)
2. CHI-NYK UNDER 237.5 (-0.7)
3. UTA-HOU UNDER 233.5 (-0.6)
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEMPHIS +13.5 (+0.4)
2(tie). BROOKLYN +16.5 (+0.1)
SACRAMENTO +5.5 (+0.1)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON -17.5 (+2.4)
2. BOSTON -17.5 (+2.2)
3. CHARLOTTE -15.5 (+1.1)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: NOP-SAC OVER 234.5 (+1.6)
Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATL-BKN UNDER 225.5 (-4.2)
2. ORL-DAL UNDER 238.5 (-3.7)
3. UTA-HOU UNDER 233.5 (-3.3)
